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    The governors of the British, Japanese and European Central Banks made statements on the same day, all emphasizing that the 2% inflation target has not been achieved

    On November 27, Bank of England Governor John Bailey said that "we have to get [inflation] down to 2%, which is why I have been throwing cold water on the assumption that we are talking about cutting interest rates or that we will cut interest rates in the foreseeable future, because it is too early to talk about it". The annual rate of CPI in the UK in October was 4.6%, well below the previous value of 6.7%, falling below the psychological level of 5%, and the problem of high inflation has been greatly alleviated. In absolute terms, the inflation rate in the UK is still well above the Bank of England's long-term control target. The Bank of England has maintained the base rate at 5.25% in two consecutive interest rate decisions, but this is only a suspension of interest rate hikes rather than a long-term suspension of interest rate hikes. According to Bailey's statement, once the future inflation rate rises again, the Bank of England will not hesitate to resume interest rate hikes.

    The governors of the British, Japanese and European Central Banks made statements on the same day, emphasizing that the 2% inflation target has not been achieved (Figure 1).

    The governors of the British, Japanese and European Central Banks made statements on the same day, emphasizing that the 2% inflation target has not been achieved (Figure 1).

    On the same day, Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said that "there is no confidence that Japan can achieve sustained and stable 2% inflation, and there are some positive signs in terms of wages and inflation, but there is great uncertainty whether this cycle will strengthen". In fact, Japan's inflation rate has been above 2% for 18 consecutive months, but this has not satisfied the Bank of Japan, let alone changed the negative interest rate policy. The Bank of Japan's goal of "sustained and stable inflation of 2%" has been completely subjective judgment, and no matter how long inflation above 2% lasts, it may not be able to shake the negative interest rate policy. The possible reason is that the negative interest rate policy has been implemented for decades and there is a huge policy inertia. Moreover, Japan's macroeconomy has adapted to this loose monetary policy, and a rash adjustment may lead to unexpected risk exposure.

    The governors of the British, Japanese and European Central Banks made statements on the same day, emphasizing that the 2% inflation target has not been achieved (Figure 1).

    The governors of the British, Japanese and European Central Banks made statements on the same day, emphasizing that the 2% inflation target has not been achieved (Figure 1).

    On the same day, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said, "We have indicated that [the emergency bond purchase program PEPP] will continue to reinvest until at least 2024." Reinvestment will expand government spending and may indirectly lead to higher inflation, which is contrary to the current general trend of interest rate hikes. The euro zone inflation rate in October was only 2.9%, which has changed from high inflation to moderate inflation, so the PEPP will not worsen the current price environment.

    The governors of the British, Japanese and European Central Banks made statements on the same day, emphasizing that the 2% inflation target has not been achieved (Figure 1).

    The governors of the British, Japanese and European Central Banks made statements on the same day, emphasizing that the 2% inflation target has not been achieved (Figure 1).

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    Disclaimer: The content of this article does not represent the views of the Institute of Foreign Exchange. The content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.