Gold market analysis: US ADP fell short of expectations, gold stopped falling and stabilized

Bank of China (601988) Guangdong Branch Wang Gang said that the number of new jobs added by ADP in the United States was lower than expected for the fourth consecutive month. The data once caused the yield of US bonds to fall, and gold also took this opportunity to slightly stop the decline and stabilize at the key level. From the perspective of fundamentals and expectations, the decline of US bond interest rates and the rise of gold prices will still be the main logic in 2024. It is expected that gold will still face the test of range volatility consolidation, and the next major event will be the non-farm employment data on Friday.

On Wednesday (December 6), spot gold rose 0.4% to close at $2027.48 an ounce.

The ADP national employment report released by the United States on Wednesday showed that private employment increased by 103,000 in November. The reading in October was revised down by 106,000, and the previous value was an increase of 113,000. Economists interviewed by Reuters had predicted that private employment would increase by 130,000 in November. The number of new jobs in ADP, known as small non-farmers, fell short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. The data once caused US bond yields to fall, and gold also took this opportunity to stop falling slightly and stabilize at a key level. From the perspective of fundamentals and expectations, the decline of US bond interest rates and the rise of gold prices will still be the main logic in 2024. On the one hand, the current round of gold prices has risen sharply, which reflects some of the above positive factors in advance, and has already emerged from the downward trend. On the other hand, it is expected that the Federal Reserve still does not want market expectations to be de-anchored. There is a risk that the Fed will correct market expectations again through forward guidance in the future. The possibility of a short-term slight rebound in the interest rate of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds after this round of rapid decline cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is expected that gold will still face the test of range volatility. The next big thing is the non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which the market hopes will give clear clues to the Fed's interest rate path. Therefore, the volatility of gold prices may still be limited until the US non-farm payrolls data is released on Friday.

On the technical level, on the daily level chart, the price of gold rallied yesterday and held steady at the 2020 dollar level, but it was still hindered by the pressure of the 5-day moving average, suggesting that there is still a risk of falling back. However, given that the trend is running above the middle rail, the Bollinger Bands are still biased towards upward development, which suggests that the current volatile development prospects have not fundamentally changed. However, if the rebound cannot return to the above $2075 and hold steady at this position, there is still a risk of another shock falling back to the low level. Recently, the top will pay attention to the resistance near $2034 and $2041 in turn; the bottom will pay attention to the support near the $2020 and $2010 in turn.