The five major institutions are unanimously optimistic about gold, and it is expected to challenge $2,250 in 2024!

In the current international political situation, the increase in geopolitical tensions and the possible policy of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2024 have created great uncertainty for the global economy. This uncertainty provides support for the rise in gold prices. At the same time, the issue of sticky inflation has also led investors to look at gold as an effective tool to fight inflation.

Taking into account the risk of falling currency values caused by inflation, investors have turned to gold as a means of preserving and increasing value, further driving up the demand and price of gold. From a longer-term perspective, experts generally believe that the price of gold will remain high for some time to come due to the influence of geopolitics and other factors.

The value of gold as a safe haven asset has been fully realized in times of market turmoil. For investors, appropriate allocation of gold exposure can not only effectively reduce the risk of investment portfolios, but also achieve asset diversification.

The following five institutional forecasts for the outlook for gold in 2024.

Quantum AMC Chief Investment Officer Chirag Mehta and Quantum AMC alternative investment fund manager Ghazal Jain

Gold can be a useful asset to hold in 2024. With interest rates peaking, the timing and magnitude of rate cuts remain uncertain, which could provide opportunities for speculation in the market, causing volatility in asset markets, including gold.

Markets can swing between optimism and pessimism, leading to sharp, short-lived swings in gold prices on both sides. Use these swings wisely to build allocations to gold that can benefit from an eventual shift in Fed policy, which is a given sometime next year.

Axis Securities

The overall outlook for gold prices appears bullish, supported by purchases by central banks, which bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold last year and held almost 800 tonnes of gold in the first nine months of this year, up 14 per cent from a year earlier.

The technical indicators paint a bullish picture as gold trades above the monthly exponential moving average (EMA) of easy 20 and 60 cycles on the monthly chart, with the relative strength index (RSI) above the 60 level, indicating strong upward momentum.

Naveen Mathur, Director of Commodities and Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers

Gold has outperformed most traded commodities this year, and the outlook for next year also looks strong.

Market participants expect a rate cut at the end of Quarter 1 next year as the impact of higher interest rates begins to weigh on economic growth in the coming quarters. Gold has historically returned positive monthly averages during periods of interest rate pauses.

Looking to the future, we expect gold prices to reach a new all-time high in 2024 and could still reach the $2,250 level in the first half of 2024.

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities

In 2023, geopolitical turmoil and economic uncertainty are driving domestic and Comex gold prices to new highs.

Looking ahead, there is potential upside as the market anticipates a series of interest rate cuts in 2024, which could dampen dollar demand and Treasury yields and boost gold demand.

The continued purchases by central banks and the expected rebound in ETF purchases could be additional upside triggers for gold.

We believe that gold will continue to generate strong returns next year. Comex Gold found support at $1925 and $1860, and faced resistance at $2126 and $2181.

Sunil Subramaniam, Managing Director and CEO of Sundaram Mutual Fund

Due to the expected extension of the rate cut cycle by two to three years, and the ensuing weakness of the US dollar, gold is currently a good investment option.

The ideal allocation is two-thirds of stocks and provides a gold balance for those investors who are comfortable with some degree of volatility. For more conservative investors, a 50:25:25 allocation ratio for stocks: gold: debt would be more appropriate.

The holding period of these assets is five years. Given the valuation situation, any stocks with short time horizons are not recommended.