[Crude Oil Daily] Haitong Futures: Oil prices continue to operate within the shock range

- Night oil prices rose and fell, especially after the EIA data showed that crude oil construction 4.199 million barrels, the accumulated data was better than the early morning API announced inventory but also exceeded expectations, refined oil inventories fell, the overall data lacked bright spots, after the news was announced, oil prices fell and failed to hold on to the rise, continuing the operating pattern within the shock range.

The news surrounding whether the OPEC production cut policy will be further extended began to ferment this week. Although the mainstream view is that OPEC + will extend the production cut to the second quarter, there are also other voices in the market, which has kept investors on the sidelines, waiting for the boots to land. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that it is too early to discuss the OPEC + production plan in April. This is the first statement of the core production cut country on the second quarter plan in the near future, which means that the OPEC + production cut extension will not have a clear result in early March. It is expected to be delayed until mid-to-late March, which is likely to prolong the oil price shock cycle.

SC crude oil took the lead in making efforts, but it lacked the echo of oil prices in the European and American markets. The monthly difference continued to strengthen, but the demand performance was not good. The cracking difference of refined oil products in the European and American markets fell again, especially the decline of diesel oil, which formed a drag on crude oil and limited the willingness of funds to chase up. At present, oil prices have repeatedly fluctuated and sawed against resistance. This stage itself has many variables, and any new factor may affect investors' expectations. Pay attention to controlling risks and participate cautiously.

daily news

[1] WTI main forcecrude oil futuresClosed down $0.33, or 0.42%, at $78.54/barrel; Brent's main crude oil futures closed down $0.51, or 0.62%, at $82.15/barrel; INE crude oil futures closed up 0.28%, at 607.2 yuan.

[2] The dollar index rose 0.12% to 103.94; the Hong Kong Stock Exchange rose 0.11% to 7.2097 against the yuan; the US 10-year Treasury bond fell 0% to 109.59; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.06% to 38,949.02.

Recent news

[1] EIA report: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 4.199 million barrels to 447 million barrels in the week to February 23, an increase of 0.95%. Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 743,000 barrels to 360.30 million barrels, an increase of 0.21%. Cushing inventories increased by 1.45 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 283.2 barrels, expected to decrease by 1.46 million barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 510,000 barrels, expected to decrease by 2.14 million barrels. U.S. EIA strategic oil reserve inventories for the week to February 23 were the highest since the week of May 5, 2023......

[2] Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: It is too early to discuss the OPEC + production plan in April. We see the global oil market supply and demand balance, the current Russian oil production is about 9.50 million barrels per day.

It is expected that the Russian oil and gas condensate production in 2024 will be in the range of 5.2-5 30 million tons. The reduction in the proportion of Russian oil and oil product exports in the OPEC + agreement is not so important, the most important thing is the reduction in exports 500,000 barrels/day. The ban on gasoline exports is a precautionary measure before the seasonal increase in fuel demand. Once the market is saturated, the ban on gasoline exports may be lifted at any time. The ban on diesel exports is not considered. Russia and Iran cooperate effectively within the framework of OPEC +.

Commodity trader Trafigura: OPEC + June meeting may restore supply too soon. US oil production will not depend on who is president.

Bloomberg opinion piece suggests OPEC + may not extend production cuts 2.20 million barrels into the second quarter, contrary to market expectations

OPEC + could trade short-term pain in oil for long-term gains.