Gold trading reminder: the price of gold is three consecutive suns! Before the US data is released, investors are keeping their eyes on it

Daocheng Technology Financial News - Thursday (March 28), the beginning of the Asian market,Spot goldSlightly weaker, currently trading in 2190.88dollar/Ounce, down about 0.18% due toFederal ReserveThe governor said it would take "several months" of better inflation data to cut interest rates. Gold prices rose 0.74% on Wednesday, with the daily record of three consecutive suns, becauseforeign exchange investmentThe Federal Reserve is widely expected to start cutting interest rates in June.

Investors are currently waiting for an update later this weekUnited StatesKey inflation data, which may provide more clues to the Federal Reserve's policy path. This trading day will also usher in changes in the number of US initial jobless claims, the final value of US GDP in the fourth quarter, and the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in March.

                                         (Daily chart of spot gold)

The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for February is due on Friday. The index rose 0.3% in January.

Alex Turro, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "We have to see if domestic inflation is weak enough to provide a clear path for rate cuts in the coming months."

He expects gold prices to fluctuate as investors wait and see ahead of the report's release.

After the Federal Reserve expected three interest rate cuts in 2024, gold hit a record high last week despite recent high inflation data.

Traders put a 70 per cent chance of a rate cut in June, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 91%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 9%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 29.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 64%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 6%

"A rate cut this year may be appropriate, but it is not yet timely," Mr. Waller, the Fed governor, said on Wednesday. "Recent inflation data leave me uncertain about progress. The risk of waiting for a rate cut is lower than the risk of acting too early. It will take months of better inflation data to cut rates."

Mr. Waller also noted that there was "still no rush" to cut rates in the current economic climate and that the Fed might need to maintain its current interest rate target for longer than expected, with data suggesting fewer cuts this year.

Mr. Waller used the word "no rush" four times in his speech, including in the title of the speech, which could provide support for the dollar and Treasury yields in the short term. Mr. Waller's remarks came after the US close and were slightly hawkish, and investors needed further ferment in the Asian session.

A government official and two bank traders pointed out that as record gold prices hit demand and banks cut imports, India's gold imports in March will plunge by more than 90% from the previous month to the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.

From a technical point of view, the moving average bulls are arranged, and the short-term bias continues to oscillate upwards. Pay attention to the resistance at the 2200 mark above. If the resistance can be broken, it is expected to further attack the position near the historical high of 2222. The preliminary support below refers to the position near the 5-day moving average 2180.33, and the strong support refers to the position near the 21-day moving average 2156.12.

At 07:06 Beijing time, spot gold was quoted at 2191.26 US dollars per ounce.