After gold skyrocketed, it fell back, and the dollar rebounded slightly! Focus on new clues about the path of US interest rates!

foreign exchange documentary platformThe dollar rallied slightly on Monday as investors awaited further clues to help paint a picture of the path of US interest rates, even as inflation showed signs of cooling, following cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials.

It is worth noting that the price of gold rose and fell back on Monday. Earlier, due to the expected rise in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the impact of the crash of the Iranian president, the price of gold once refreshed its historical high to near the 2450 mark. However, the price of gold then convulsed some of its gains, as Federal Reserve officials made hawkish speeches, the dollar and U.S. bond yields rebounded, weighing on the price of gold.

In response to the future trend of the Federal Reserve, the analysis pointed out that last week's data showed signs of cooling inflation. Traders once expected a 66% chance of a U.S. interest rate cut in September, but with Fed officials making hawkish speeches, the probability of a rate cut in September fell to around 60%. The dollar index rebounded by 0.12% on Monday, and U.S. bond yields closed up for three consecutive trading days, causing gold prices to fall from near historical highs.

This trading day will continue to usher in the speeches of Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Federal Reserve Governor Barr, investors need to pay attention. In addition, you need to pay attention to the news related to the situation in the Middle East.

The current focus will be on the upcoming report on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, due on May 31.

"The Fed is not going to have enough data before its June or July meeting to be confident enough to cut rates," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. "By August, Chairperson Powell will probably take the opportunity at the Jackson Hole central bank's annual meeting to explain their views on the path forward, setting the stage for a September rate cut. Hopefully the data will cooperate."

Markets will also be watching the minutes of the Fed's last meeting, due on Wednesday, ahead of preliminary purchasing managers' indices for the eurozone, Germany, the UK and the US this week and speeches by Fed officials.

ANZ's team of analysts believes that while the April CPI report will cheer the Federal Reserve, it needs more convincing to prove that inflation is returning sustainably to its 2% target before considering easing policy.

It is worth noting that there were no US economic data released on Monday or Tuesday, and the remarks of Fed officials were the most closely watched ahead of the release on Wednesday of the minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting, which could provide more clues about the path of interest rates.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at 4.437 per cent on Monday, nearly two basis points higher than on Friday, while the yield on the two-year note, which tends to better reflect monetary policy expectations, closed at 4.837 per cent, up about one basis point.

The analysis pointed out that the speech of the US FOMC members will provide further insights into the policy stance of the Federal Reserve, which may have a significant impact on the dollar. At the same time, the speech of the members of the British Monetary Policy Committee is crucial for the pound, and any hint of future interest rate changes may be triggeredforeign exchange marketThe fluctuations.

From a technical perspective, the dollar is based onforeign exchange analysisThe teacher's perspective:

From a technical point of view, the US index rose below 104.65 on Monday, and the decline was supported above 104.35, which means that the US dollar may continue to rise after the short-term decline. If the US index falls above 104.40 today to stabilize, the target for the future rise will point to between 104.70--104.80. Today, the short-term resistance of the US index is at 104.65--104.70, and the short-term important resistance is at 104.75--104.80. Today, the short-term support of the US index is at 104.40--104.45, and the short-term important support is at 104.25--104.30.