A number of Federal Reserve officials have issued warnings of intervention! The dollar/yen has been blocked by more than 160 points, and analysts say the technical signals are still too high

foreign exchange trading platform- On Wednesday (June 26), the dollar/yen remained long at 159.73, but failed to break through the 160 mark smoothly. A number of senior Japanese officials attacked together and threatened to intervene. The black swan time for Japan's July interest rate hike is getting more and more intense, and the market is closely watching Japan's economic indicators, which has suppressed the buying of the dollar/yen to further rise.

Observing the market in April and May, the USD/JPY briefly fell below the 152 level under the intervention of 160.209, and then retreated to the 159 level. However, the USD/JPY failed to break through the resistance level of 160 this week as investors considered the threat of intervention by the Japanese government to support the yen.

On Tuesday, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japan's chief cabinet secretary, warned of intervention, stressing: "We are closely monitoring currency movements and will respond appropriately to excessive volatility."

Shunichi Suzuki, Japan's finance minister, also spoke of intervention, saying: "We will respond appropriately to excessive exchange rate volatility."

After a dismal performance in the first quarter of 2024 and disappointing economic indicators in Japan in the second quarter, the impact of a weaker yen on the economy will be in the spotlight.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino recently said that exchange rate fluctuations affect economic activity in various ways. In addition to the direct impact on import prices, it also affects inflation in a broad and persistent way. #BoJ Dynamics #

Although the threat of intervention could limit the upside, the Bank of Japan may need to take a tougher stance to start reviving yen-buying demand.

Can Japan's economic indicators improve investors' bets on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in July? This is the answer that the market desperately wants.

On Thursday, Japan will release retail sales data, which may affect investors' expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in July. Economists predict that retail sales will increase by 2.0% year-on-year in May, following a 2.4% year-on-year increase in April. #JapanMarket #

Investors may see the better-than-expected data as a clue that the Bank of Japan is considering raising interest rates in July, and the upward trend in consumer spending could spur demand-driven inflation.

However, labor market data and inflation data from Tokyo on Friday could have a greater impact on the direction of interest rates at the Bank of Japan.

Economists expect core annual inflation in Tokyo to rise from 1.9 per cent to 2.0 per cent in June, while economists expect it to rise from 2.2 per cent to 2.4 per cent.

Better-than-expected economic data and a stable unemployment rate could give the Bank of Japan the green light to raise interest rates in July. The Bank of Japan can justify its move to influence the market by highlighting the impact of a weaker yen on the Japanese economy. While Japan's economic indicators will affect the dollar/yen, US data could affect the view that interest rate spreads have peaked.

Investors will be watching U.S. real estate sector data later on Wednesday, with analysts forecasting a 2.9% increase in new home sales in the U.S. in May, following a 4.7% decline in April. Market participants should keep an eye on the trend as inventory of new homes can be volatile. The upward trend in inventory could ease price pressures and lower the cost of housing services, including rents. Housing services inflation is a driver of headline inflation.

Moreover, the upward trend in demand for new homes could indicate strong consumer confidence, which could spur consumer spending and strengthen expectations of a soft landing for the US economy.

Janet Yellen, the US Treasury secretary, spoke on Monday about the Biden administration's efforts to provide new affordable housing, saying: "We made several more announcements today about steps we can take to ease the burden of the Magnet Fund, a major housing project, and help local housing agencies access reasonable low-cost financing through the Federal Financing Bank."

Yellen also mentioned that at current mortgage rates, homeowners are hesitant to purchase new homes, which affects supply and demand dynamics and price trends related to housing services.

While the housing data will be closely watched, investors should still pay attention to the FOMC members' remarks. The next key data will be the US inflation data released on Friday.

Friday's higher-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve are likely to test expectations of a peak in interest rate spreads.

USD/JPY technical analysis

FXEmpire analyst Bob Mason said that USD/JPY is hovering above the 50-day and 200-day EMA, confirming the bullish price signal.

The return of USD/JPY to 160 and touching the April 29 high of 160.209 could prompt bulls to hit the 161 mark.

On the contrary, a break in USD/JPY below the 158 mark could allow bears to strike near the 50-day moving average, which could signal a fall towards support at $151.685.

The 14-day RSI is 68.46, indicating that the USD/JPY will move to the high of 160.209 on April 29, and then enter the overbought area. The above is the latest news related to the US yen. If you are interested, you can continue to pay attention to the foreign exchange trading platform.