Gold trading reminder: French election spoiler, gold prices slightly under pressure, bulls still looking towards 2450

foreign exchange trading platform- On the morning of July 8th,Spot goldSlightly weaker, currently trading in 2385.69dollar/Ounce nearby. French election results were unexpected over the weekend,EuroWeakening, providing opportunities for the dollar to rebound, so gold prices are slightly under pressure. Gold prices extended their gains on Friday to their highest level in more than a month, reaching a high of $2392.82 an ounce and closing at $2390.85 an ounceUnited StatesThe key employment data shows that the labor market is weakening, which has raised the barFederal ReserveThe expectation of a rate cut in September.

Tai Wong, an independent metals trader in New York, said: "Gold is trading at a one-month high becausenon-agriculturalDownward revisions in the jobs data and another rise in the unemployment rate help'solidify 'expectations for a September rate cut ". If the Federal Reserve starts publicly hinting at a September rate cut, bulls are eyeing a return to the all-time high of $2,450".

The data showed that non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 206,000 in June, slightly higher than economists' estimates of 190,000. However, the number of new jobs added in May was revised down from 272,000 to 218,000, while the number of new jobs added in April was revised down to 108,000 from 165,000 previously. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, slightly higher than the expected 4.0%.

After the data was released, US interest ratesfuturesThe price reflects that the market's confidence in a September rate cut remains strong, with the implied probability remaining around 77%.

Traders also see the possibility of a second rate cut in December rising as lower rates lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

After the employment data was released, the dollar fell to a three-week low against other currencies, making dollar-denominated gold cheaper against holders of other currencies.

This trading day, investors need to pay attention to the further fermentation of the French election. This week, we will focus on the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell and the US CPI data for June, and pay attention to the news related to the geopolitical situation. Relatively speaking, the current fundamentals and technical conditions are biased to support the price of gold to break through the 2400 mark, and it is even expected to test the resistance near the historical high 2449.88.

technical analysis

From the daily chart, the gold price broke the key position 2368.62 the high point on June 21 last Friday, the opening of the Bollinger Line after the horizontal operation, the MACD golden fork operation, the KDJ golden fork operation, the gold price is expected to run upward along the Bollinger Line, the preliminary resistance refers to the 2400 pass, the high resistance on May 21 is near the 2406.01, and then the resistance near the 2420 pass and the historical high 2450 pass.

（Spot goldDaily chart)

Below 2368.62 has been transformed into a strong support, and if it unexpectedly falls below this position, it will weaken the bullish signal in the market outlook.