Crude oil analysis: Crude oil long and short is in a wait-and-see stage, the market awaits further guidance

foreign exchange trading platform- Monday (July 15) European session,The latest OPEC report highlights strong oil demand in 2024. The level of global oil demand remains unchanged from the previous report, and the level of global economic growth has been raised to 2.9% in 2024 and 2025. Factors contributing to this revision, along with expected support for a healthy oil demand environment, include: A rebound in major economies, with positive momentum expected to continue through the end of the year; upcoming monetary easing and an increase in real income levels.

WTI crude oil remained volatile, trading at $82.29 a barrel in intraday trading, up 0.10%, and touching a low of $81.61 a barrel. Summer 2024 demand, supported by air travel, is a positive factor in the current trend for oil.

Contrary to the opinion expressed in the OPEC report, the IEA's statistics reflect a slowdown in oil demand growth in 2024, due to factors such as slow growth at the economic level and the accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies.

Last Friday's crude oil daily K-line, reflecting unsustained daily highs, closed in bearish devouring pattern compared to the previous physical smaller K-line. In the larger consolidation movement, a small consolidation can be seen near the trend line connecting the consecutive highs of May 2024, with sentiment neutral to bearish.

After further cooling in U.S. inflation data, markets were expecting a speech from Jerome Powell to unveil an update on monetary policy.

technical analysis

                                                                                                     (WTI crude oil daily chart)

basic point of view

Economic contraction, rising interest rates and a shift towards renewable energy are all likely to support a bearish trend in oil prices. Conversely, in the medium term, economic expansion, lower interest rates and a weaker dollar can boost demand and support a positive trend in oil.

In a pessimistic scenario, a break below the levels of 80 and 77 could pave the way for a deeper decline, reaching the bottom of the triangle and possibly this year's low. A possible pause can be seen near 77 as it coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend between the June 2024 low and the July 2024 high.

In an optimistic scenario, the latest uptrend in oil prices is being challenged within the upper boundary of the consolidation, namely resistance levels 84.30 and 85.70. A close above this area is required to confirm the trend towards the 2024 high of 87.30 and a possible return to the 90 area, where resistance may be around 92.