The scale of foreign exchange reserves rose, and gold reserves rose for the third consecutive month

On February 7, the statistics of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that as of the end of January 2023, the scale of our country's foreign exchange reserves was 3.1845 trillion US dollars, an increase of 56.80 billion US dollars from the end of 2022, an increase of 1.82%. Gold reserves were 65.12 million ounces, the previous value was 64.64 million Shengshi, an increase of 480,000 ounces month-on-month, the third consecutive month of increase.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that our country's economy continues to recover and show a recovery trend, and the endogenous power continues to increase, which is conducive to maintaining basic stability in the scale of foreign exchange reserves.

Foreign trade resilience and the increasing attractiveness of RMB assets

Regarding the increase in the scale of foreign exchange reserves, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that in January 2023, due to factors such as global macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations of major economies, the US dollar index fell, and global financial asset prices generally rose. The combined effect of exchange rate translation and asset price changes caused the scale of foreign exchange reserves to rise in that month.

"Recently, it has been noted that some central banks have increased their holdings of gold, mainly to optimize the structure of official reserve assets, promote the diversification of official reserve assets, and enhance the ability of official reserve assets to resist global financial marekt fluctuations and asset stability. From the perspective of the global environment, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is coming to an end, the outlook for the US dollar is weak, and the global political and economic situation is still uncertain, which will enhance the attractiveness of gold reserves to a certain extent." Analysis by Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial marekt department of Everbright Bank.

Reporters concerned that on February 7, the People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was lowered by 230 basis points from the previous day to 6.7967. Over a long period of time, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates have been fluctuating and rising since the end of last year, breaking through the 6.69 and 6.70 marks respectively in mid-January this year.

"Looking at the trend, our country's economy is recovering steadily, the resilience of foreign trade and the attractiveness of RMB assets are constantly increasing, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate is enhanced, and the balance of payments is expected to maintain a basic balance. At the same time, the end of the US dollar interest rate hike, our country's foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain basically stable." Zhou Maohua analysis.

Treasury bond futures and CSI bonds rose

On February 7, Treasury bond futures rose. Among them, the 10-year main contract rose by 0.17%, the 5-year main contract rose by 0.09%, and the 2-year main contract rose by 0.02%. In addition, CSI convertible bonds rose by 0.22% to 408.29, with a turnover of 63.37 billion yuan. Fuxin convertible bonds rose by more than 40%, Sanfang convertible bonds and Jinlun convertible bonds rose by about 20%, Yokogawa convertible bonds rose by more than 7%, and Huafeng convertible bonds rose by nearly 6%.

The reporter noticed that on February 6, the exchange's bond market officially launched its bond market-making business, with the first batch of 12 securities companies participating in market-making.

Yu Lifeng, a senior analyst at Dongfang Jincheng Research and Development Department, said that in comparison, the bond market is relatively weak and the transaction prices are not continuous. By continuously quoting bilaterally, market makers can facilitate transactions and help improve market liquidity. Continuous quotes by market makers provide price guidance for the market and attract investors to participate in transactions, which is conducive to forming bond prices that reflect market supply and demand, improving market pricing efficiency and promoting price discovery in the bond market.

Regarding the follow-up performance of the bond market, Dongfang Jincheng Research and Development Department pointed out that in terms of interest rate bonds, the fundamentals will still show a post-epidemic repair market in the next period of time, and the stock market is expected to continue to benefit from strengthening, which still suppresses the sentiment of the bond market; in terms of credit bonds, the maturity of fixed-type wealth management in February has pushed up the redemption pressure of wealth management products, and there is still a risk of valuation adjustment of credit bonds, especially the city investment bonds with weaker qualifications; in terms of convertible bonds, the impact of the reversal of the net inflow of northward funds on the equity market may be transmitted to the convertible bond market, especially the risk of subsequent correction of some sharply rising stocks, and its impact on the convertible bond market. At the same time, a number of convertible bond issuance listed companies predict the first loss of performance in 2022, which may also In the short term, we need to continue to pay attention to the shock adjustment risk of the convertible bond market and individual bonds.