Decode foreign exchange platform trading reminder: multiple benefits help bulls counterattack, and oil prices may accelerate their rise?

On Thursday (December 12), the US crude oil Asian session fell slightly, trading at $70.18/barrel near the fundamental US EIA crude oil inventories last week decreased by 1.425 million barrels, expected to reduce 901,000 barrels, the previous value decreased by 5.073 million barrels.

United StatesDecode Forex PlatformLast week, EIA Oklahoma Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 1.298 million barrels, the previous value increased by 50,000 barrels, while global demand is expected to pick up, double positive, oil prices continue to strengthen.

And the daily report of the positive line broke through the pressure of the moving average, the short-term bullish momentum is still sufficient, and it is expected to continue to strengthen, while the US CPI data is in line with expectations, driving the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations to heat up, also supporting oil prices, short-term treatment.

US November CPI: Data in line with expectations, four rate cuts likely next year

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said: "There were no surprises in the CPI report, everything was in line with expectations. Housing costs remain the main driver of inflation.

With the jobs report and the inflation report, there is nothing to stop the Fed from cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Exciting will be the summary of the Fed's economic forecasts. There could be four rate cuts in 2025 and inflation will eventually fall to target. "

The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December rose to 98.6 percent, from 85.8 percent the day before.

According to the CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep current interest rates unchanged through December is 1.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 98.6%.

The probability of maintaining current interest rates unchanged by January next year is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 79.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 19%.

It should be noted that after the US CPI data landed, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in December has almost been a real hammer, but it is necessary to be vigilant that after the boots landed, oil prices are expected to sell facts, raising the risk of falling back

Oil prices have risen sharply on hopes that a shift in monetary policy in Asian giants will boost demand next year

Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with market participants expecting demand from Asian powers to rise next year after governments announced looser monetary policies to stimulate economic growth.

Asian powers said on Monday they would adopt "moderately loose" monetary policy in 2025, the first time in 14 years that a major Asian government has eased its monetary policy stance to stimulate its economy.

IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said: "Oil prices have recently managed to find a foothold as stronger policy signals from authorities in major Asian countries have reignited hopes for stronger stimulus measures in 2025."

"But oil price gains are still somewhat limited because market participants still want to see more specifics beyond the typically positive information," Yeap said.

The Asian powerhouse also recorded its first year-on-year increase in November crude oil imports in seven months, increasing by more than 14% year-on-year.

However, Mukesh Sahdev, head of oil analysis at Rystad Energy, pointed out that policy changes in Asian powers "are unlikely to provide much support for oil prices until the bearish impact of Trump's 2.0 policy takes hold." At best, changes in Asian powers can help prevent further downturns. "

From a technical perspective, the daily pattern of US crude oil has broken through the 55-day moving average pressure, and it is expected to test the pressure along the $72 integer level on the box, waiting for the direction selection after stress testing. If it breaks through, it will return to the bullish trend.

U.S. crude oil daily chart

At 10:21 Beijing time, US crude oil is now trading at $70.23 per barrel.