Decode platform crude oil trading reminder: oil prices return to range volatility, waiting for new changes in the supply side

On Monday (December 23), U.S. crude oil rose slightly in the Asian session, trading around $69.84/barrel.Decode Forex official websiteLast week, oil prices fell first and then rose. On Friday, some of the losses were reversed, and the weekly line rebounded but did not fall below the previous low.

Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cuts have pressured oil prices, while the expected decline in global demand has also put a lot of pressure on oil prices, but the overall price is within the box range.

The dollar index is operating at a high level, and overall, under the constraints of supply and demand, the probability of oil prices emerging from the trend is not high.

Trading has been light this week due to the Christmas holiday, with a focus on Thursday's EIA inventory data.

OPEC +, a group of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, recently cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 for the fifth consecutive month

JPMorgan believes that the oil market will shift from equilibrium in 2024 to a surplus of 1.20 million barrels per day in 2025.

Because the bank forecasts that non-OPEC + supply will increase by 1.80 million barrels per day in 2025, while OPEC production will remain at current levels.

White House national security adviser advises Trump to put pressure on Russia to help achieve peace in Ukraine

White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said a peace deal to end the conflict in Ukraine could be reached by pressuring Russia.

And expressed the hope that the future head of the White House, Trump, would take such action.

"I think Trump has to keep up the pressure on Russia," Mr. Sullivan said. "I believe this deal is achievable."

Sullivan believes that if Washington refuses to further support Kiev, "if we give up on Ukraine" and agree to Moscow's terms, it will seriously damage the long-term interests of the United States,

So I think the most important thing is that Trump sends a message to Putin: The United States will continue to support Ukraine, and Europe will continue to support Ukraine, unless you accept fair peace terms. "

U.S. consumer spending was solid in November, with the core PCE price index rising at the slowest pace in six months

U.S. consumer spending rose in November as strong demand for a wide range of goods and services underscored the resilience of the economy, with the Federal Reserve expecting fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than it had forecast in September.

After a series of hotter data, there was also good news about inflation last month.

The Commerce Department's report on Friday showed that prices rose modestly month-on-month, with the smallest increase in core inflation in six months.

Despite this, the year-on-year increase in core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

"Due to the wealth effect of rising incomes and rising portfolio values, consumers have the ability to spend, so the economy continues to grow from strong consumer demand.

"Inflation is more dovish than expected, but some categories of inflationary stickiness support the Fed's reluctance to cut rates significantly next year," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.4 per cent last month, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, after a downward revision to 0.3 per cent growth in October.

Economists had initially forecast a 0.5 per cent rise in consumer spending, which surged 3.7 per cent in the third quarter, the fastest pace in a year and a half, after a 0.4 per cent rise in October.

Helped propel the economy to 3.1% growth in the quarter. The economy expanded at a 3.0% pace in the second quarter.

The Atlanta Fed forecasts GDP growth of 3.1% in the fourth quarter. Personal income rose 0.3%, with wages rising 0.6%.

After adjusting for inflation, household disposable income rose by 0.2%, indicating that some households used their savings to purchase goods.

The savings rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5% in October. Economists don't think last month's slowdown in inflation will change the Fed's tone on Wednesday.

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.1 percent, compared with an uncorrected 0.2 percent increase in October.

Fed's Daley called this week's rate cut a "difficult decision."

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday that the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday was a "difficult decision."

And added that she agreed with Chairperson Powell that further policy adjustments now need to be approached with caution. "

For me, the most important thing is that we need to recalibrate the policy. I think it's a difficult decision. "Daley said in a TV interview.

"Now I think we've passed the recalibration phase and moved on to the next phase, and the next phase is really about focusing on future information."

This is the first time a policymaker has spoken since the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate range to 4.25% -4.50% on Wednesday. The latest forecasts from policymakers show that most of them believe that there will be fewer rate cuts in 2025 than previously predicted.

The new median forecast for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate by the end of next year is 3.9 percent, or a range of 3.75 percent to 4.0 percent, up from the 3.4 percent, or 3.25 percent to 3.50 percent, range previously forecast.

Daly said she was satisfied with the more moderate easing path shown in the summary of economic forecasts.

"I'm very happy with the median," she said. "It's reasonable to me, but we have to be flexible."

At Powell's press conference on Wednesday -- and his repeated references to a "cautious" approach from now on.

The interest rate futures market has recalibrated expectations, and there are doubts within the market that the Federal Reserve will achieve two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025.

"We may end up with fewer than two rate cuts," Daly said. "

If inflation falls faster, or if you see significant weakness in the labor market, we may have to respond and ultimately take more action.

"I would be happy to sit in the midfield and wait for the data to come out, and we will respond realistically based on the data."

From a technical standpoint, the US crude oil daily line has returned to the range, continuing to consolidate around the moving average, but the volatility has decreased, and the moving average pressure has been tested again. The MACD indicator has stabilized, and there is a possibility of a rebound. If it returns to the $70 integer level, it is expected to test the pressure on the upper edge of the box again.

At 10:27 Beijing time, US crude oil is now trading at $69.82 per barrel.