Decode foreign exchange platform: oil prices under pressure, Ukraine peace dawn and inventory increase double blow

International oil prices fell slightly in the Asia-Europe session on Thursday (February 13), mainly due to expectations of a possible peace deal between Ukraine and Russia and the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories.Decode Forex PlatformThe market is concerned about the easing of supply risks and the weak demand outlook. In addition, Trump's tariff threat further exacerbated the downward pressure on oil prices.

Brent crude fell as much as 0.74 per cent to $74.36 a barrel and WTI fell 1.1 per cent to $70.758 as both hit fresh four-session lows and were not far from near one-and-a-half-month lows.

1. Ukraine peace deal expectations: supply risk mitigation

US President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky to promote peace talks on the Ukraine war. Both Putin and Zelensky expressed a desire for peace, and Trump instructed senior US officials to start negotiations. Analysts at ANZ Bank pointed out that market optimism about the easing of crude oil supply risks led to a pullback in oil prices.

2. US crude oil inventories rise: Weak demand outlook

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4.10 million barrels last week to 427.90 million barrels, higher than analysts' expectations of 3 million barrels. Phillip Nova commodities strategist Darren Lim said that continuous inventory increases and geopolitical developments, such as Ukraine peace talks, could further depress oil prices.

3. Trump's tariff threat: economic growth and demand concerns

Trump's threat to impose additional tariffs on US trading partners has heightened market concerns about a widening global trade war and slowing economic growth. The tariff policy could lead to a drop in oil demand, further weighing on oil prices. In addition, Trump plans to sign a reciprocal tariff order, which may accelerate US inflation and increase economic uncertainty.

4. Market Outlook: Multiple Factors Intertwined

In the short term, the progress of the Ukraine peace deal and changes in US crude oil inventories will continue to affect oil prices. If there is a substantive breakthrough in peace talks, the mitigation of supply risks may further depress oil prices. However, the implementation of Trump's tariff policy and the uncertainty of the global economic outlook may limit the downward space for oil prices.

summary

The decline in oil prices was influenced by expectations of a peace deal in Ukraine and a build-up in US crude oil inventories. Concerns about easing supply risks and a weaker demand outlook intensified. Trump's tariff threat further weighed on oil prices, and the future direction of oil prices will depend on geopolitical developments, inventory data and changes in the global economic situation.

U.S. crude oil daily chart

At 14:02 Beijing time, US crude oil is now trading at $70.69 per barrel.