DBG Shield Bo Foreign Exchange Official Website: A Major Breakthrough in US-Iran Nuclear Talks! Framework Agreement Drafting Immediately, Oil Prices Down More Than 1% Under Pressure

The US-Iran nuclear talks have ushered in a turning point! According to the latest news from Refinitiv, the two sides have made "very good progress" in the second round of talks.DBG Dunbo foreign exchange official websiteAnd agreed to start drafting the framework of a potential nuclear deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that the atmosphere of the talks was "constructive" and that expert-level meetings would be held this week to refine the terms and pave the way for a final agreement.

The negotiation process has accelerated

US and Iranian representatives held four-hour indirect talks with Omani officials, and two intensive consultations within a week showed the strong willingness of the two sides to promote negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly stated after the talks that the two sides have reached a certain consensus on "principles and objectives", and revealed that a team of experts will gather in Oman on Wednesday (April 23) to start formulating a draft framework. US negotiators also released a rare positive signal. A government official described the discussions as "direct and productive", suggesting that the negotiations have entered a substantive stage.

Game focus is clear

At the negotiating table, Iran clearly put forward the core demand of "nuclear restrictions in exchange for lifting the ban", expressing its willingness to restrict its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions by the international community. This position directly confronts the main concerns of the US side for a long time. It is worth noting that although US President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Iran, the US negotiating attitude has recently turned to pragmatism. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has set the tone of the negotiations as "cautious and not pessimistic", which not only retains room for maneuver, but also shows Iran's strategic flexibility.

critical time node

This week's two meetings will determine the course of the negotiations. Wednesday's expert-level meeting will be the first to start, with the technical team needing to agree on the specific terms of the agreement framework. On Saturday (April 26), high-level representatives will meet again to review the work of the expert team and assess whether the draft meets the core demands of both sides. The "technical-political" dual-track mechanism formed by these consecutive meetings ensures both professionalism and timeliness of political decisions.

Transaction reminder:

The breakthrough marks the beginning of the US-Iran nuclear standoff that has lasted for many years, but the final success or failure is still uncertain. The "cautiously optimistic" official statement from Iran and the positive signal from the US have formed a delicate balance, making this week's two talks a "limb" for a possible historic agreement. As the negotiations enter the countdown stage, the world's attention is focused on Oman, and the nuclear negotiations that have affected the Middle East and the world landscape are ushering in the most critical week.

Due to the progress in nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran, easing supply concerns, international oil prices weakened slightly at the beginning of trading on Monday (April 21), with US crude oil falling by about 1.5% to $63.06/barrel and currently trading around $63.10/barrel.

From the supply side, if the agreement is finally reached, Iranian crude oil will gradually return to the international market. The industry expects that within 3-6 months after the agreement takes effect, Iranian crude oil exports may increase by 50-800,000 barrels per day. This new supply will significantly change the current supply and demand pattern of the global crude oil market, which may lead to rapid inventory accumulation. Affected by this, the term structure of Brent crude oil futures may change from the current backwardation to the futures premium (contango), reflecting the market's expectation of future supply easing.

On the geopolitical front, a breakthrough in the negotiations will significantly reduce the risk premium in the Middle East. Shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz will be improved, and market fears of supply disruptions will be significantly eased. This could lead to a reduction of speculative long positions in the crude oil futures market by 20-30%, further suppressing oil prices. At the same time, the return of Iranian crude oil will also reshape the global crude oil trade pattern

Depending on the outcome of the negotiations, there are three possible scenarios for the market: if the negotiations successfully reach an agreement, it is expected that the oil price hub may move down by 5-8 US dollars in the third quarter; if the negotiations reach an impasse, the oil price will remain in the current range; and if the negotiations break down, the resumption of geopolitical risks may push the oil price up by 10-15 US dollars in the short term.

Daily chart of US crude oil main contract

In addition, it should be reminded that if the US-Iran talks continue to send positive signals, the market's concerns about geopolitical risks will weaken, and the attractiveness of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset may decrease. Investors may reduce their gold holdings and turn to risky assets, leading to a short-term correction in gold prices. If there are major disagreements in the talks this week, or even the negotiations break down, the geopolitical risk premium may quickly return, driving gold safe-haven buying, and the price of gold may return to a short-term higher market.

At 07:33 Beijing time, US crude oil is now trading at $63.09 per barrel.