Murphy's Law and Foreign Exchange Investment

One.

"Murphy's Law," "Perkinson's Theorem," and "Peter's Principle" are collectively regarded as the three most outstanding discoveries in Western culture in the twentieth century.

Suppose you drop a piece of dry bread on the carpet, both sides of the piece of bread may land. But suppose you drop a piece of bread on the carpet with a layer of jam on one side, often the side with jam on it (trouble). Put another way: if something has the potential to go bad, that possibility becomes a reality.

It's called Murphy's Law. It's very broad. It reveals a unique social and natural phenomenon. It goes to the extreme of saying that if something bad can happen, no matter how unlikely it is, it will happen and cause the greatest possible damage.

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1. If you want to know in advance which trades are likely to suffer losses, Murphy's Law can tell you:

1) Trades that have not established protective stop-loss orders.

2) Holding excessive positions due to carelessness.

2. The application of Murphy's Law in the foreign exchange market:

You are afraid of falling, but it will fall for you to see; you hope to rise, but it will not rise; you can't help but sell, and it starts to rise; you are optimistic about three currencies and buy one of them. As a result, except for the one in your hand, the other two rose very well.

3. Question: I am optimistic about several currencies and bought one of them. As a result, all but the one in hand rose very well. What should I do?

My experience is that among the bullish ones at the same time, buy the one with the least certainty. Or the one with the last of these currencies in your mind may work best. The most expected things in the foreign exchange market are also the most likely to disappoint.

third

1. The place where you find the missing item is the last place you look.

2. If there are five trading days a week, the first three days go up, up, up, you don't pay attention; the next two days, down, down. Voila: Murphy's Law works!

3. Banker decapitation is also something that many people have not thought about. You can't bet a stock on a bank without thinking that it will one day bounce. Since there is a possibility, there is a chance to realize it. The bankers have been comfortable for a few years, and we didn't pay attention. One day, we went into a dive, and lo and behold: Murphy's Law works again.

4. So: this is also a probability. Good and bad outcomes happen every day, and the possibility of both exists at the same time. Good outcomes are not noticed. Once a bad outcome occurs, it is just because the result is too strong and impressive, resulting in an inevitable conclusion.

In a liquid market, the bad part is where you draw conclusions, which is where the so-called Murphy's Law comes into play. Someone said:

1. My feeling is that Murphy's Law values possibilities, including those small probability events, emphasizes the change and uncertainty of things, expands our thinking or observation horizons, and prevents problems before they occur. At the same time, it tells us not to follow others' example, look at what others have not seen, think about what others have not thought, and there may be opportunities to make money in those places. The same is true for surprises, which is the magic weapon of some people.

2. The problem of attention is exactly one aspect of Murphy's Law. We have choices about what we pay attention to. The information presented to us by the world is very rich, but we usually make limited choices based on our six senses and inner needs and the ability to know and accept, and it is usually linear and one-sided, and the subject and object are not coordinated. So sometimes after something happens, we pay attention and start to regret it. Therefore, the purpose of emphasizing Murphy's Law is mainly to break down the self-barrier of our inner understanding of the world, let our attention diverge and flow as much as possible, and observe the overall change. It is like a patron saint of the risk market, allowing you to prepare your escape route and then enjoy the joy of harvest; it is also like a searchlight in the dark, illuminating the dead corner of your heart, allowing you to find opportunities that ordinary people forget. Murphy's Law points out the plight of human beings, the weakness of human nature or the paradox encountered, and its direction is often the direction of the opposite or the direction unexpected by ordinary people. Therefore, Murphy's Law is worth pondering.

3. Murphy's Law allows our attention to diverge, flow, and observe global changes. ---- It is also just a name. It is more like a basket. Everything uncertain can be packed in it. It reminds us that in the face of anything, we should consider more thoughtfully and comprehensively, and take certain insurance measures to prevent disasters and losses caused by accidental mistakes.

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Alternative expressions of Murphy's Law:

1. If you succeed the first time, it is obvious that you have done something wrong.

2. If something is not worth doing, it is not worth doing well.

3. Never remember what you have forgotten.

4. When everything is going in one direction, it is best to take a deep look in the opposite direction.

5. Today is the end of the first half of your life.

6. Seek simplicity - and then disbelieve.

7. Education cannot replace intelligence.

8. If you knew what you were worth, you would become worthless.

9. Loneliness is something you can't get rid of.

10. Problems that automatically disappear will automatically return.