Supply Shrinkage Steel Price Volatility Upward, Futures Market Analysis

Rebar: This week's rebar production decreased by 167,700 tons compared with last week, inventory decreased by 276,700 tons, apparent demand decreased by 109,600 tons, showing a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand, and neutral data. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline, and the output of molten iron decreased slightly. Affected by the deepening of the off-season and production losses, there is still room for reduction in the supply of finished materials; short-term demand is supported by the factors of rushing to work at the end of the year, but it will gradually weaken under the off-season effect. Important meetings are approaching, and market optimism is expected to ferment, providing support for steel prices. However, under the background of double weakness in supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved significantly. Steel prices are easy to bear pressure in the off-season. It is expected that steel prices will

Hot coil: hot rolling this week reduced production by 47,000 tons, inventory fell by 5,500 tons, and demand fell by 53,600 tons. Currently in the policy gap period, the supply pressure of hot coil has not yet eased. Although the inventory has been removed again, the demand toughness is in doubt, the fundamental improvement is limited, and the upward drive is not strong. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate. Strategically, the short-term operating range of thread 2605 refers to 3070-3200 yuan/ton; the operating range of hot coil 2601 contract refers to 3240-3400 yuan/ton.

Soda ash: Soda ash futures fell slightly on Thursday, and spot prices were mainly stable. The commodity market was mixed on Thursday, and market sentiment weakened. From a fundamental perspective, soda ash maintenance arrangements have increased recently. This week's soda ash production increased by 6,000 tons to 704,000 tons. Recently, production has declined, and supply-side pressure has temporarily eased. Downstream demand has declined slightly. The latest alkali plant inventory decreased by 31,000 tons to 1.539 million tons on Monday, and the latest delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 557,000 tons compared with the previous week. Last week, float glass cold repair 1 production line, photovoltaic glass cold repair 1 production line; this week, float glass cold repair 3 production lines, ignition 1 production line. Recently, the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, the demand for heavy alkali has dropped slightly, the demand for light alkali has temporarily stabilized, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the middle and lower reaches is average. In October, soda ash imports fell slightly to 300 tons, exports rose to 214,500 tons, and exports increased. On the macro side, the recent domestic real estate sales data fell slightly month-on-month, lower than the level of the same period last year; foreign macro effects were neutral (the US dollar index rose, trade friction concerns weakened); domestic policy disturbances weakened. On the whole, short-term soda ash losses increased, supply fell at a high level, demand was weak, new production capacity is expected to put pressure, and futures prices were mainly weak and volatile. On the warehouse side, soda ash warehouse receipts increased by 1259 to 7535 on Thursday. Short-term soda ash futures prices were temporarily weak and volatile, and SA260

Glass: Glass futures fell slightly on Thursday, and spot prices held steady to decline. Short-term glass fundamentals improved slightly, and supply pressure weakened. This week's glass production fell slightly month-on-month, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and inventories fell month-on-month. The latest glass inventory fell by 146,000 tons to 2.972 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 23.3% year-on-year. Last week, 1 production line of glass cold repair; this week, 3 production lines of glass cold repair and 1 production line of ignition. Recently, the daily melting volume of glass has declined. The latest daily melting volume in production is 154985T/D, a decrease of about 2.3% year-on-year. From January to October, the completed area of domestic houses decreased by about 16.9% year-on-year (the decrease was expanded). The recent real estate sales data fell slightly month-on-month, lower than the level of the same period last year. The number of new glass deep processing orders rose by 0.2 days to 10.1 days month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%. Short-term glass supply declined, the pressure on the supply side weakened, and the futures price temporarily fluctuated. Short-term glass futures prices fluctuated. FG2601 refers to 1000-1030 within days.

Methanol: In terms of spot prices, Daqi 1980, Luoyang 2130, Lubei 2210; the upstream factory auction failed, the market sentiment weakened, and the low-end transactions at the single level were the main ones. In the short term, during the winter storage window of spot coal, the raw material end is expected to have certain support; the production area maintains high start-up, the early maintenance of large plants returns this cycle, and the inventory pressure of the origin is small; the logistics market has fewer vehicles, and the price of automobile transportation remains high, and the price to the end point is stronger; the downstream high inventory continues, and the external production volume maintains rigid demand. Pay attention to the start-up changes of olefin plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Overseas high shipments continue, and port inventories are difficult to castrate in the short term; Iran's production is declining, and the shipment rate is expected to decrease to a certain extent this month; import delivery still maintains positive profits, and paper cargo costs are supported weakly On Thursday, the spot basis in East China was 01-8, and 12 was at 01 + 15, and the basis continued to weaken slightly. In the short term, changes in overseas installations have a greater impact on the mood of the disk, and pay attention to their landing; in the medium and long term, pay attention to the weather in the Middle East and the environmental protection policies of the origin. Operationally, short-term methanol fluctuates in a narrow range, focusing on port basis and inventory changes. Methanol 2601 refers to the fluctuation range of 2060-2180 yuan/ton.

Urea: In terms of spot prices, the market price in Shandong is 1680 yuan/ton, and the market price in Henan is 1690 yuan/ton. The new orders in the domestic urea market are well traded, and the quotations of manufacturers continue to rise. The downstream transaction sentiment is more cautious. On the supply side, the daily output of urea is about 199,000 tons, which has fallen slightly compared with the previous period, and the pressure of upstream orders has declined. The order of wax fertilizer in some areas has advanced, which has certain support for agricultural demand. Affected by export quotas and winter storage policies, the inventory pressure is released, waiting for the trend of centralized ports. The expected start of the compound fertilizer factory is relatively sufficient, and there is a certain rigid demand for raw material urea procurement. In the short term, the urea inventory has been reduced, and the demand has improved to a certain extent, but the overall supply and demand are still loose Operationally, short-term urea oscillation, urea 2601 reference oscillation range 1640-1740 yuan/ton.

Rubber: Thursday, domestic all-latex 14,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thailand No. 20 mixed rubber 14,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: yesterday Thailand glue reported 55.5 baht/kg, the same as the previous day; Thailand cup glue reported 48.22 baht/kg, down 0.1 baht/kg from the previous day, Yunnan is about to stop cutting; Hainan glue reported 13.1 yuan/kg, the same as the previous day. As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory 1.102 million tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 2.1%. The total stock of China's dark glue society was 712,000 tons, an increase of 2.5%. Among them, Qingdao spot inventory increased by 2.7%; Yunnan increased by 1.6%; Vietnam 10 #increased by 5.7%; NR inventory subtotal increased by 3.5%. The total inventory of China's light-colored rubber society was 390,000 tons, an increase of 1.3% month-on-month. Among them, Laoquan latex decreased by 1.3% month-on-month, 3L increased by 4.5% month-on-month, and RU inventory subtotal increased by 9.2%.

Opinion: The recent contradictions in reality are still limited, corresponding to unilateral market fluctuations. Looking back, with the advent of winter in the northern hemisphere, the world is about to enter a low-yield season, which also means that the pricing framework of unilateral prices will shift from dynamic pricing of supply and demand balance to static pricing of inventory. The demand side/macroeconomy may dominate the future unilateral pricing. Considering that China's domestic demand is almost impossible to decline in the future, and overseas markets are also difficult to weaken significantly under the interest rate cut cycle, that is, the future global demand is difficult to decline significantly, so no matter what the current (global) inventory level is, the bottom of RU & NR & Sicom may have already appeared.

Shanghai lead: Overnight Shanghai lead was weak and volatile. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the tight pattern of primary ore is difficult to change. According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals statistics, part of the supply of domestic lead concentrates has been booked in advance for the first quarter, and the TC recorded a decrease in the month-on-week. Smelters in Yunnan and other places maintained a state of production reduction; Holders of recycled waste batteries have a strong willingness to support prices, smelting profits have improved slightly, recycling refineries have a good willingness to resume production, and Holders have a good willingness to ship. On the import side, some overseas crude lead has flowed in one after another. On the consumer side, orders from large factories have been good in the month, but recent lead prices have risen and buying demand has declined. Overall, the improvement in low inventories in November was limited, and it is expected that lead

Shanghai Zinc: Overnight Shanghai Zinc strong shock. Macroscopically, the United States last week the number of initial jobless claims fell, Federal Reserve officials continue to support interest rate cuts, macro sentiment is strong. Fundamentally, domestic TC is still in a downward channel, some regional quotations have come to around 1800. On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, in December the smelter is expected to record a decrease of more than 30,000 tons, supply pressure continues to slow down. On the demand side, the downstream is mainly buying on dips. Yesterday, the premium rose slightly, and the social treasury continued to be removed. Overall, the short-term upward drive has not increased compared to the previous round. It is expected that high volatility will prevail, and the high pressure will be effective before the test.

Stock index futures: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.40%, the growth enterprises market index rose 1.01%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 1.36%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.34%, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.38%, the CSI 500 rose 0.24%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.01%. The turnover of the two cities was 1.54896 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 121.002 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan-level industries, the best performing industries were: machinery and equipment (0.90%), electronics (0.78%), and national defense industry (0.55%). The worst performing industries were: comprehensive (-2.11%), beauty care (-1.89%), and social services (-1.62%). In terms of basis, the IC and IM basis weakened slightly, and the IH and IF basis strengthened slightly. The annualized yields of the current contract period of IH and IF were -1.90% and -4.30% respectively, and the annualized yields of the current contract period of IC and IM were -10.40% and -13.00%. In terms of hedging, short hedging may consider quarterly contracts. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low and narrowly fluctuated. The Shanghai stock market closed slightly lower and the Shenzhen stock market closed slightly higher. The turnover of the two cities fell again. Yesterday, machinery and equipment, electronics, national defense and military industry and other industries rose at the top, while comprehensive, beauty care, social services and other sectors fell at the top; in terms of first-tier industries, yesterday's consumer-related industries fell sharply, or were suppressed by short-term consumption data declines, consumer subsidies continued, etc., and technology-related sectors rose slightly. In terms of indices, the broader market index was slightly stronger than the small and medium-cap index yesterday, and there was no significant style differentiation. Overall, the recent turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has continued to maintain a low level of volatility, and the active level of market transactions is relatively weak. However, the low level of market volatility may indicate that the long and short differences have gradually eased. Key economic meetings will be held at the end of the year, which is expected to further repair market expectations and boost investor confidence. It is recommended to maintain IF and IM multi-orderhycmforeign exchange marketThe impact of exchange rate fluctuations on index transmission is also worth paying attention to.