5.15 Will the price of crude oil plunge and still rise? Foreign exchange gold crude oil multi-order unwinding

News interpretation

Looking ahead to the future pattern of precious metals, maintain the judgment that the short term is much longer. After raising interest rates by another 25 basis points last week, keeping interest rates at current high levels for a period of time will allow officials to assess the impact of interest rate hikes and banking sector pressures on the economy, while still using demand easing to ease inflation. The resilience of the dollar index in the short term and the overly optimistic Federal Reserve policy expectations are factors that inhibit the continued rise of precious metal prices. In addition, the banks of the recent US thunderstorm are all regional small and medium-sized banks. As long as the liquidity risk of the overall US banking industry is manageable, the market's risk aversion will not be suddenly detonated. In the medium and long term, if all kinds of global economic data continue to soften as expected, then the end of trade interest rate hikes will be transmitted to the decline of economic demand, and then continue to be transmitted to the start of the interest rate cut cycle. This logic is still the long-term driving force for precious metals. And in 2023, the allocation demand for gold by global institutions and even central banks is still high, and precious metals still have high allocation value

Gold market trend analysis

Spot gold closed at $2010.23 an ounce last week, down $4.57 or 0.23 percent. During the day, it hit a high of $2022.59 an ounce and a low of $2000.85 an ounce. For the week, spot gold fell $6.22 or 0.31 percent. Other data released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed producer prices rebounded only modestly in April and wholesale inflation hit its lowest annual rate in more than two years. The reports are believed to be in line with most economists' expectations that the economy will be in recession before the end of the year. In a separate report released on Thursday, the Labor Department said the producer price index (PPI) for final demand rebounded 0.2 percent in April after falling 0.4 percent in March. In the 12 months to April, the PPI rose 2.3%, the smallest year-on-year increase since January 2021 and 2.7% in March. The cost of services rose 0.3%, accounting for 80% of the month-on-month increase in the PPI. Portfolio management fees rose 4.1%, driving the overall cost of services higher. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is calculated to include portfolio management fees, airfare prices and health care costs. It is a major inflation measure tracked by the Federal Reserve when setting monetary policy. Overall, although risk aversion also provides support for gold prices, more funds are flowing into the US dollar, the strengthening of the US dollar index has significantly suppressed the price of gold, and the short-term bullish signal of the US dollar has strengthened, which makes gold prices face further downward pressure in the short term. Although the market expects the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate hikes in June, it has basically been digested by the market, and the short-term may not provide further upward momentum for gold prices.

Gold technical analysis

Gold last week fell low, the main trend is shock, but the short-term is accompanied by repeated high down, the continuation of the previous day's sawing shock walk, daily level: high shock; MACD top deviation after the green column and preliminary dead fork, KDJ bonding after the initial dead fork, gold prices for two consecutive trading days high down, and fell below the 5-day moving average and 10-day moving average, short-term bearish signal has been enhanced, is currently testing the Bollinger line near the rail 2007.24 support, if the loss of the position, it is expected to further fall, Bollinger line near the rail 1967.20, the current Bollinger line track close to the horizontal operation, the trend of the middle line reference Bollinger line track 1967.20-2047 regional breakthrough. In the short term, there is still some support near the 2000 integer mark and the low of 1978.39 on May 2. The resistance of the top 10-day moving average is near the 2021.30. Before recovering this position, the market outlook is biased towards the bears. Further resistance refers to the 2030 mark. If it can rise above this position, it will weaken the short-term bearish signal. Teacher Yi Jin suggested that gold bounce short on Monday, and the pullback is supplemented by more. The short-term focus above is on the first-line resistance of 2030-2035, and the short-term focus below is on the first-line support of 2000-1995. (Real-time market can be followed in time)

The latest crude oil market analysis

Oil prices fell about 2% to a one-week low on Thursday as political gridlock over the US debt ceiling stoked fears of a recession in the world's largest oil consumer, while rising jobless claims in the US and weak Asian economic data also hit oil prices. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged Congress to raise the federal debt limit by $31.40 trillion and avoid an unprecedented default that could trigger a global recession. Uncertainty over the current US debt ceiling, recent banking problems that could prompt a credit crunch in much of the oil industry, and the continued strong likelihood of a recession remain significant obstacles to the oil market. Overall, the uncertainty of the US debt ceiling has increased the upward pressure on oil prices, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has risen to a new high of one and a half years, which has increased the fear of economic recession. Oil prices may be under pressure in the short term. Recent transactions in oil prices require attention to the meeting to be held next week on the US debt ceiling issue. The risk of uncertainty is greater, and investors need to be cautious.

Crude oil technical analysis

The daily negative line of crude oil closed low and fell, and the long-term attack 73.50-73 broke through without breaking through. Yesterday, the pressure conversion fell, and at the same time fell below the low of 71.30. Rushing high and falling back, the potential to break low, breaking the continuous rebound structure, the daily level: shock fell; the MACD dead fork signal continued, the low rebound of oil prices was blocked near the 50% retracement level, and fell back to the 5-day moving average, the 10-day moving average and the 38.2% retracement level. The short-term downside risk has increased. If it falls below the May 4 dry 69.80, it may re-explore the support near the March low of 64.10; if it is short-term, there are also some supports near the 23.6% retracement level of 68.49 and the low of 66.81 on March 24. Since the KDJ golden fork signal is still there, before losing 69.80, it is still impossible to rule out the possibility of bulls regaining the rebound trend. The resistance of the top 10-day moving average is near 71.62, and the resistance of the 5-day moving average is near 72.18. If this position can be recovered, the short-term bearish signal will be weakened. The kinetic energy needs to break the resistance near the low of 73.92 on April 28 to reverse the short-term downside risk. On Monday, the crude oil operation, Mr. Yi Jin suggested that the rebound should be mainly short, and the pullback should be supplemented by more. The short-term focus on the 71.7-72 line resistance above, and the short-term focus on the 69.0-68 line support below.