Industrial Investment: Great Changes in Interest Rate Expectations, Viewed in Non-Agricultural Shocks

Fundamentals

Overnight market expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate changed sharply. First, employment data drove up expectations of interest rate hikes, and then the unexpected dovish speech of Federal Reserve officials caused the expectation of no interest rate hikes in June to surge rapidly. The dollar's rise and fall were still fluctuating from last week's highs. European inflation fell across the board, weighing on the euro, while the European pound cross drove the pound higher. Commodity currencies The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar were once affected by poor Chinese economic data. The late recovery in New York made the day record a shadow black candle, while the Canadian dollar was significantly stronger on the strength of Canada's strong GDP.

The number of job openings in the United States unexpectedly rose to 10.103 million in April, sharply exceeding expectations 9.40 million and hitting a new high in the past three months. This highlights that demand for US workers remains strong and the labor market is still struggling to cool down. After the data, the market expected more than 70% chance of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in June, exceeding the level of just over 60% before the data.

However, Jefferson, the governor of the Federal Reserve, said that holding the Fed's policy rate unchanged at the upcoming meeting should not be regarded as the peak of the current tightening cycle; no rate hike would give time to evaluate the data. The possibility of a June rate hike was further undermined by comments from Philadelphia Fed President Chuck Harker, who said a rate hike could be skipped, which would be a skip rather than a pause. The sudden release of Fed officials made the market expect that the probability of the Fed not raising interest rates in June has soared from 33% to 73.6% previously.

The rapid shift in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate indicates that the current market is in an irrational state. In the next two days, many Federal Reserve officials will still speak. At the same time, the United States will also release a large number of labor market-related data, which may affect the market.

Progress on the US debt ceiling has been smooth for the time being. The House of Representatives approved the bill for debate during the procedural voting session, clearing the way for the debt ceiling agreement to be put to the full House of Representatives for a vote. If the full House votes, the Senate will vote on the bill. It is expected to pass the bill by Friday night, and then it will be sent to US President Biden for signature. Continue to follow relevant developments.

technical

EUR/USD

The daily chart volatility is weak, and the top is still suppressed by the downward moving average. Stochastic indicators tend to move higher. It needs to break through MA10 to reverse the decline since the May high. The center of gravity of the 4-hour chart continues to move downward, and the downward momentum remains intact. The hourly chart V-shaped reversal, but still below the pressure line. During the day, it is recommended to remain short below 1.0730, set a stop loss tightly, and seek a long opportunity to stabilize the backhand below 1.0650.

Support level: 1.0650 1.0630 1.0600

Resistance level: 1.0730 1.0760 1.0800

GBP/USD

The daily chart stabilized and rebounded above the MA100. Stochastic indicators tended to move higher, but it needs to break through the MA20 effectively to confirm the reversal of the decline since the May high. The 4-hour chart suppressed first and then rose, and re-tested the 1.2450 line of resistance. The hourly chart stepped back on the potential upward trend line to find support for the stabilized rebound and re-tested the 1.2450 line, with the bulls slightly dominant. The intraday recommendation is to pay attention to the performance of the 1.2450 line of resistance to determine the further direction.

Support level: 1.2400 1.2350 1.2330

Resistance level: 1.2450 1.2470 1.2500

USD/JPY

The daily chart was blocked below 141.00 and fell back. The stochastic indicator returned to the neutral zone to move lower. If it remains below MA10, it will continue to decline. The 4-hour chart is slightly weaker, and the downward momentum is not strong. The center of gravity of the hourly chart continues to move downward, and it is still bearish. During the day, it is recommended to pay attention to short below 139.40, set a stop loss tightly, and look at 138.25.

Support level: 138.80 138.25 138.00

Resistance level: 139.40 139.60 140.00

gold

On the daily chart, the MA100 stabilized and included the big yang line, and the stochastic indicators tended to move higher, or there was further room for improvement. The 4-hour chart formed a high and low point of upward movement, and the bulls still dominated. The hourly chart broke 1965, and after stepping back on the gear, it stabilized, and there is still hope to expand the gains. The intraday suggestion is to seek to go long above 1962, set a stop loss tightly, and look at 1975 first.

Support level: 1962 1955 1940

Resistance level: 1975 1985 1990

silver

The short-term moving average of the daily chart is flat and a large physical positive line is recorded. Stochastic indicators tend to rise in the neutral area. If it breaks through MA20, it is expected to open up further upward space. The 4-hour chart breaks through 23.40, and the oscillation is slightly stronger. The hourly chart fluctuates higher, and the intraday volatility is severe. It is recommended to seek to go long above 23.30 during the day, or wait for a breakthrough of 23.60 to follow up.

Support level: 23.30 23.10 22.90

Resistance: 23.60 23.90 24.10