6.5 Analysis of the rise and fall of foreign exchange gold futures crude oil market today and suggestions for gold crude oil operation

Gold's latest market trend analysis:

Gold News Analysis: At the beginning of last week, gold rallied from near $1,940, climbing for four consecutive trading days. Last Friday, it refreshed the weekly high to reach the 1983 level. However, the rally soon fell back to below 1950 and finally closed near 1948. It rose slightly by 0.07% in the week, ending the previous three consecutive weeks of closing and falling. Analysts said that with the US Congress passing the debt ceiling agreement and the latest non-farm payrolls report performing strongly, the gold market does not rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this summer. Gold ended its three-week losing streak, driven by improved market sentiment and lower US Treasury yields. Gold rebounded after touching the lowest level since mid-March near $1,930. In the coming week, with no major reports, market attention will turn to the Federal Reserve meeting on June 13-14.

This week's economic data looks relatively calm and could be seen as "the week leading up to the FOMC (FOMC) meeting". Only two relevant reports will come out in the US this week: the ISM services PMI (on Monday) and initial jobless claims (on Thursday). The Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting on June 13-14, and market participants expect the Fed to "skip" this rate hike. Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell hinted at a pause in rate hikes not long ago, and this door may be opened wider by recent comments from Fed officials in favor of a pause in rate hikes. Market participants will not hear more comments from FOMC members as they entered a "quiet period" last Saturday. For this Fed meeting, the market expects a pause in rate hikes, but that's no guarantee. Some analysts see another rate hike as possible, especially after the latest non-farm payrolls data. While the data boosted tightening expectations, Powell and other members assessed the impact of a rate hike by suggesting they were willing to "skip" the meeting. The final word could come from the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for June 13.

Gold technical analysis: Gold saw a swallowing pattern last Friday, in which the big negative line of the day swallowed the positive line of the previous two trading days. This pattern is seen as a reversal signal, indicating that the rally in gold may end and may fall further. Monday's trend is expected to continue the decline, while the upper area will become a resistance area between 1955 and 1960.Even if gold is stepped back, it may be a weak step, but there will be no reasonable step back.

The Gold 4-Hour Chart shows the price movement of gold. According to last Friday's analysis chart, the horizontal pressure above is located near 1985, and the support below is located near 1930, forming a range range for 1930-1985. The current disk shows that the price of gold is oscillating downward, and this oscillating downward trend is expected to continue. It is possible for the price of gold to test the support level of 1930 again. The current price of gold has fallen below the level of 1950, so the probability of continuing to test 1930 is high.

Gold's 1-hour cycle recorded a double-top pattern near the staged high of 1983. A series of spindle lines and small solid lines were consolidated in the follow-up. After that, it was recorded that the big yin was building a tower-shaped top shape as a whole, partially peaking, and the short-term rebound ended. At present, the market has recorded 4 small yin in a row near the support level of 1948, and there is a tendency to stop the decline in the short-term. It is recommended to chase the short at a low level cautiously. Overall, gold's short-term operation ideas today suggest that the rebound is mainly short, and the pullback is supplemented by more. The short-term above focuses on the first-line resistance of 1960-1965, and the short-term below focuses on the first-line support of 1935-1930.

The latest crude oil market trend analysis:

Crude oil news analysis: On June 2 (last Friday), US crude oil traded around $71.37/barrel in the US market. The US Congress passed a bill to suspend the US government's $3.14 billion debt ceiling last Thursday, averting a catastrophic sovereign default that could shake the global financial marekt. Signals that the Federal Reserve may skip a rate hike in June, and data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicating a surge in crude oil imports last week have reassured the market. Investors' attention is focused on the upcoming meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC +) including Russia over the weekend. Ministers of oil-producing countries will decide whether to further cut production to support government revenue. OPEC + unexpectedly announced a further production cut of 1.66 million barrels per day in April, bringing the cumulative output cut to 3.66 million barrels per day. Although weak manufacturing data from major consuming countries has raised the possibility of OPEC + production cuts, OPEC + is likely to maintain its current policy in June. OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya said: "Disappointing global manufacturing data supports another OPEC + production cut and oil prices are stabilizing." But he added that Russia may not necessarily adhere to the hard line of production cuts. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz previously warned bears to "be careful", and the market interpreted it as OPEC + may announce new production cuts in June. But Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has since said he does not expect OPEC + to introduce any new measures in June. HSBC said in a report that it does not expect OPEC + to change its policy, but if the expected market supply shortfall in the second half of the year does not materialize and oil prices remain below $80 a barrel, the group could cut production further at a later date.

Crude oil technical analysis: Crude oil fell and rebounded last Friday, and the daily mid-positive line closed, recovering the previous day's decline, and the mid-positive line wrapped the mid-negative line, and the K-line combination of the yang swallowing yin. Broke the weak downward test at the beginning of the week, and returned to the low of the range above 69.20 to close, the daily level fluctuated; oil prices rebounded after gaining support near the lower rail of the Bollinger Line, the K-line recorded a "engulfed" bullish signal, and oil prices rebounded to the low of 69.39 on May 15, short-term bullish signals have increased, and the short-term is expected to further test the resistance near the middle rail of the Bollinger Line at 71.78. If the resistance can be broken, it is expected to further rise near the upper rail of the Bollinger Line at the middle line at 76.03, and the resistance of the 100-day moving average is also In the short term, there are still some resistance near the high of 73.53 on May 29 and the high of 74.71 on May 24. The preliminary support below is near the 70 mark, and the 69.39 position is converted into a support level again. The strong support is near the lower rail of the Bollinger Line at 67.53. If the support is lost, the bearish signal of the market outlook will be increased. Overall, the short-term operation idea of crude oil today is recommended to step back and lower, supplemented by rebounding high. The short-term focus above 75.0-75 is on the first line of resistance, and the short-term focus below 72.0-71 is on the first line of support.