FXTM: Trading Strategy for June 6

"Today's Focus List"

"Technology Strategy"

NO.1

Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD)

- The hammerhead line retains the hope of rebound, and the bottom needs to be kept from breaking 1.07

Looking at the daily chart, the performance of the two data of the US service industry and industry was sluggish, which made the Federal Reserve's tightening expectations slightly ebb, and the euro took advantage of the situation to fall back to the hammer line. Looking at the trend, the exchange rate continued to break the short-term steep decline channel and the hope of stopping the decline. Many parties first need to recover the high of 1.0735 in December last year and the 23.6% retracement level of the inter-year rally from September last year to May this year to make a solid rebound foundation. Follow-up resistance points to the low of January 31/the high of 1.0800 on February 14, the high of 1.0875 in January, and the lower limit of the high box in April-May 1.0950. In terms of indicators, MACD is about to form a golden fork below the zero axis; RSI has recovered slightly after falling close to the oversold area, and still retains the signal of bottoming out.

From the 4-hour chart, the euro's previous decline happened to harvest support on the original falling channel. The support area from the overnight low to the high of 1.0695 on March 6 became a watershed for whether the rebound could continue. Once lost, the high point on May 5 last year/the low point on May 25 at 1.0640 (which is also close to the low of this round of retracement) is the last line of defense for many parties in the short term. For more support, first look at the low of 1.0570 on December 22 last year, and then go down. The support area from the low of 1.0515 in March to the 38.2% retracement level of the above rally is relatively critical. In terms of indicators, MACD is about to form a golden fork below the zero axis; RSI has leveled off after rebounding to near the neutral level, and the market is gradually repairing its weakness recently.

Above Resistance Reference: 1.0735、1.0800、1.0875

Below are supported references: 1.0695、1.0640、1.0570

(▲ EURUSD H4 source:fxtmFXTMT4 platform)

NO.2

US Dollar/RMB (USD/CNH)

- Twice upside subject to 7.14, to guard against potential double-top risk

Looking at the daily chart, under the overall strength of the US dollar, the offshore US dollar/RMB has been on a tear recently, especially after successfully "breaking 7", which has opened a new round of upside cycle. Looking at the trend, the exchange rate accelerated to break through the initial upward channel formed after the rise in April, and continued to rise along the channel. Follow-up resistance looks at the high transaction intensive area of 7.1500 in March-June 2020, followed by the high double-top form neck line of 7.1700 last year. The selling pressure is heavier, and the breakthrough will further look at the 7.20 integer level. In terms of indicators, MACD is about to form a mild dead fork above the zero axis; RSI has fluctuated for a long time on the overbought line, suggesting that there is a certain risk of "fear of heights" after the exchange rate has accumulated gains.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the exchange rate has been blocked in the past two times to cross the 7.14 high; at the same time, the MACD indicator has not refreshed the band high after breaking the 7.0 mark, and continues to deviate from the current price; the RSI also appears that the band high is constantly moving down, indicating the risk of the market peaking. Looking at the retracement point, the high of 7.0770 on May 24 and the low of 7.0660 last week (potential double top neckline) are the key support for the short-term, and if it breaks through, it will start to adjust the market. Follow-up support points to the high of 7.0415 on September 16 last year, as well as the psychological level of 7.0. If the latter breaks again, the recent rally will officially come to an end.

Above Resistance Reference: 7.1500、7.1700、7.2000

Below are supported references: 7.0770、7.0415、7.0000

(▲ USDCNH H4 source: FXTM MT4 platform)

NO.3

Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD)

- Repeated oscillations around 1959, there will be a direction choice near the "top edge"

Looking at the daily chart, as the possibility of the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest rate hikes in June has resumed, US dollar bond yields have joined hands to lower the price of gold. The bulls have not given up the competition for the key level of 1959 before February for more than two weeks. At the same time, the upside has become closer to the top resistance of the high triangle extending downward, and the market is about to make a direction choice. If the resistance line is under pressure, the downside first looks at the support area from the low of March 22, 1935 to the high of January 16, 1928; then the 1900 integer close, and the high of 1877 in June last year are also expected to be bought. In terms of indicators, the MACD fast line forms a mild golden fork below the zero axis; the RSI is still in a weak area, and the market continues to be weak and volatile.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the gold price formed a horizontal box with 1959 as the price center, and the shape will also help to judge the direction of the market outlook. From the perspective of upside risks, the upper limit of the box combined with the formation of stubborn resistance on the top edge of the triangle, and the market is expected to re-break the 2000 integer level after breaking through. Then the high point of 2030 on April 5 and the historical high of 2070 are also expected to be heavily armed by short forces. Further up, the target can refer to the 2100, 2200 and other integer levels. In terms of indicators, MACD forms a golden fork below the zero axis; RSI rebounds to the neutral level, showing the trend of repeated market fluctuations recently.

Above Resistance Reference: 2000、2030、2070

Below are supported references: 1928、1900、1877

(▲ XAUUSD H4 source: FXTM MT4 platform)

NO.4

American oil (CRUDE)

- The gap is closed on the first day of the gap, and it is difficult to break the box in May

Looking at the daily chart, US oil opened higher and lower overnight, just in time to completely close the gap caused by the news of Saudi Arabia's additional production cuts. The market's competition for the key position of 73 (January-February low) is still difficult to win, and the pattern of price fluctuations in the wide box below 65 to 73 since May has not changed. From the downside risk point of view, last year's low near 70 and the high of 67.82 in December 2021 are potential supports above the 65 decisive point. In terms of indicators, the MACD fast and slow lines are torn against each other below the zero axis; the RSI rebounded to the neutral level and then flattened, suggesting that the price gap at the beginning of the week has not changed the original mild weakness.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, even with the positive blessing of production cuts, US oil is still difficult to get rid of the 73 resistance suppression. At present, many parties urgently need to seek higher lows in the band during the retracement process, and the stop-falling process will also prepare for the re-clearance of resistance. However, above the 73-April low of 73.90, the upside will also face the gap left by the surprise production cut in April, during which the low of 76.20 on March 1 and the low of 77.70 on February 14 are expected to have selling pressure; in the process, it will also encounter the initial resistance line suppression of the wide and gentle downward channel formed since August last year. In terms of indicators, the MACD fast line turned downward above the zero axis; the RSI once approached the overbought line and then fell back, indicating the risk of oil prices hitting the high and blocking.

Above Resistance Reference: 73.90、76.20、77.70

Below are supported references: 70.00、67.82、65.00

(▲ Crude H4 source: FXTM MT4 platform)

NO.5

Nikkei 225 Index (Jap225)

- Continuously refresh 33-year highs, revealing rising super + morphological risk

Looking at the daily chart, the Nikkei 225 Index broke through the 32,000-point mark on the previous day, refreshing the 33-year high. The return of risk appetite, foreign capital inflows, and the continuation of the central bank's ultra-loose monetary policy are all positive for Japanese stocks. However, after many days of revelry, the stock index formed a potential diffusion triangle variable at the high level, and closed the inverted hammer line with a long upper shadow overnight. At the same time, the MACD indicator has further moved away from the zero axis; the RSI showed a slight but continuous divergence signal in the overbought area. Looking at the risk of retracement, the September 2021 high of 30800 is still the dividing line between whether the short-term peak is reached. Below the 30,000 integer mark and the high of 29225 in August last year are also important support references. If the latter is broken, the market strength will be significantly weakened. September last year, the high of 28700 in March this year, and the high area of 28300 in November-December last year are also expected to have buying capacity. In terms of upward resistance, as long as you hold above 30800, the bulls will continue to challenge the high of 33000 in June 1990. For more resistance, please refer to the high of 34338 in May 1989 and the 35000 integer mark.

Above Resistance Reference: 33000、34338、35000

Below are supported references: 30800、30000、29225

(▲ Jap225 D1 source: FXTM MT4 platform)

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