FX: The Dow Index rose for 11 consecutive days, and the prototype of "Big Short": US stocks may continue to "melt up", and the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates three more times

　　The Dow rose for an 11th straight session on Monday, its longest streak since February 2017. Bespoke Investments said 11 consecutive days of gains were rare, averaging less than once every 10 years since the end of the second world war.

　　The Dow gained 183.55 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 35,411.24 on Monday, while the S & P 500 rose 0.40 per cent to 4,554.64 and the Nasdaq rose 0.19 per cent to 14,058.87.

　　Bespoke Investments tweeted on Monday that it was the sixth time since the end of World War II in 1945 that the Dow has held up for 11 consecutive trading days or more.

　　Energy stocks led the S & P 500 higher on Monday, rising about 1.7 percent after oil and gasoline futures hit a three-month high on Monday. Oil majorsChevron(161.82, 3.13, 1.97%)(Chevron) shares rose nearly 2 percent after the company reported adjusted second-quarter earnings on Sunday that beat market expectations.

　　Steve Eisman, one of the prototypes of The Big Short and now a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, said: "So far, there is no sign of a recession. So as long as there is no sign of a recession, I think the market will probably continue to melt up - people are chasing."

　　The concept of "melt-up" was coined by longtime U.S. stock bull Ed Yardeni in a 2016 blog post, referring to the fact that investors flocked to the market (rather than changing fundamentals) because they did not want to miss the opportunity to make money in the stock market rise, resulting in more and more bulls in the market, super optimistic market sentiment, the market continues to rise, and even accelerate the rise, eventually leading to the market crash.

　　Eisman said that as long as the economy continues to grow, his company will continue to invest fully and has no plans to exit.

　　However, while investors expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again on Wednesday and then pause, Eisman pointed to the possibility of further tightening, even hinting at the possibility of three more rate hikes.

　　But Eisman said that even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again, Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell could send mixed messages at a press conference after the announcement.

　　"The only caveat I would say is that after the Fed hikes rates, Powell will speak, and if history is any guide, Powell will be dovish even if he wants to be hawkish," Eisman said. "That's his character."

　　FXTIn recent weeks, many economic commentators have suggested that the U.S. economy could achieve a soft landing, driven by slowing inflation and continued strength in the labor market.

　　Societe Generale(5.465, 0.09, 1.58%)The bank pointed out that another reason why the long-awaited recession has not yet materialized is that companies' net interest payments have actually declined under the Federal Reserve's tough policies.

　　The strong economic performance has also been accompanied by a strengthening stock market, with investors shrugging off the effects of the tightening cycle in favor of big tech companies benefiting from new developments in artificial intelligence.

　　In Eisman's opinion, as long as investor interest doesn't rise too high, these stocks will continue to rise because investors seem indifferent to the high price points in the market.

　　While Eisman doesn't think artificial intelligence-related stocks are overhyped, he did say there could be a pullback at some point as the market expands further.

　　"The bigger question for me is that at this point, ChatGPT is only benefiting a handful of very, very large companies," he said. "In the next year or so, it's interesting to see if it's really going to scale up to some medium-sized companies."