FX: The "big hawks" of the Federal Reserve are starting to be optimistic! But also warn: if there is a need to raise interest rates, it will definitely increase!

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari said,The outlook for US inflation is "quite optimistic"Although the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy to contain price increases may lead to some job losses and slower economic growth.

Kashkari's comments on Sunday came after key data showed US inflation had fallen back from epidemic highs, economic growth held steady and consumers continued to spend even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years. The regional Fed chairperson said on a foreign media program:

"The resilience of the economy continues to surprise. The bottom line seems to be that our economy will slow but avoid recession."

 He said that while the Federal Reserve seeks to cool the economy and an overly tight labor market,There has been no major unemployment or falling wages, but the labor market should see some weakness"I personally think it's unrealistic that we will end this inflation cycle without the labour market paying a price"

The U.S. unemployment rate continues to hover at a historic low of 3.6 percent, but Kashkari said,This figure could rise to 4% in the coming months."It's still going to be a soft landing in my view," he said, referring to the Fed's desire to cool prices and demand without causing massive unemployment or negative growth

This Friday, the United States will release the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to showThe number of U.S. jobs is growing at a healthy but more moderate rate。

Kashkari also reiterated,The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring these data to guide whether further rate hikes are possibleHe said that while the core PCE price index rose 4.1% in June, lower than expected and the lowest level since 2021, the figure was still above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. He said:

"If we need to raise interest rates, that is, from now on, we will definitely do so."

The Federal Reserve last week raised its target range for the benchmark federal funds rate to 5.25% -5.5%, taking it to its highest level since 2001 and the 11th rate hike since March 2022.