Industrial Forex: "Horror Data" or a stunning appearance! Gold has come to a key node

Benefit from summer promotions and holiday travel，US consumer spending in July is likely to rebound from June. The monthly rate of US retail sales for July will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday，The data is known as "terror data". According to FactSet，Economists widely expect it to reach 0.4%.，The growth rate is faster than the 0.2% in June.，This is the fourth consecutive month of growth.

Aditya Bhave, a US economist at BofA Securities, even said that，According to credit and debit card spending data released by Bank of America，He anticipates that there will be"Strong"The report is out. Compared to June，Household spending rose in all categories, including aviation, daily necessities, and gasoline.

Bawe added that，Online retail sales have also increased significantly.Considering so many summer promotions，This is not entirely surprising. Except for Amazon's "Prime Day" (Prime Day)，Target, Walmart and Macy's general merchandise all launched promotions throughout July. Adobe Analytics data shows，From July 11 to 12，Consumers spend more than $12 billion on e-commerce purchases，Year-on-year growth was 6.4%.

Bave wrote in a note to clients，"Spending growth around the July 4th holiday was larger than last year，The spending growth from Prime Day and related promotions is similar to that in 2022. "

July also saw an increase in brick and mortar store traffic counting, according to TD Cowen，Compared to last year，Retailers saw an average increase in traffic counting of 7%.，This is higher than the average increases of 4.4% and 5.5% in June and May.

Consumer spending may also be buoyed by an improvement in the overall assessment of the economyDue to falling inflation data，Consumer confidence rose to its highest level in nearly two years in July.

If the U.S. retail sales data for July is hotter than expected，Fears that the resilience of the U.S. economy could lead to a renewed acceleration in inflation，And hit market expectations that the Federal Reserve has ended its rate hike cycle. As last week's PPI data provided ammunition for Fed hawks，Coupled with the wave of Treasury bond issuance, US bond yields have risen，Gold has fallen to a more than a month low，It is currently trading sideways ahead of the release of important data and Federal Reserve meeting notes.

FXstreet analysts point out that，Unless it hits a low for the year around $1,893 in June，otherwiseGold still has a cushion above $1901After this，The level near $1,888 will be the last line of defense for gold bears to break throughOn the upside，A clear break through the $1920 resistance could push gold towards the $1935 level.

However，As the weather gets colder，The surge in summer spending is likely to subside.Industrial foreign exchangeMany economists and analysts predict thatConsumer spending will experience a broader slowdown in the second half of the year.

This makes July's retail sales data all the more important. If the data is lower than expected，This suggests that consumer spending has slowed down. Although this may not be good news for retailers，But it could be beneficial for the Federal Reserve，For more than a year, the Federal Reserve has been trying to rein in consumer demand to combat inflation.

Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, wrote，"Although we don't think the economy will decline immediately，But we expect the lagged impact of rate hikes to lead toReal consumer spending began to contract as early as the fourth quarter”。

There are some signs that shoppers are already cutting back on spending，Including more cautious back-to-school spending and fewer meals out. Retailer earnings disclosures, which officially begin this week, could also be a sign that consumers are reluctant to splurge.

The slower pace of consumer spending could help strengthen that view，The Federal Reserve can bring inflation back to its 2% target，And avoid a full-blown recession through a so-called soft landing.

Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, an industry group, said，"The economy in the first half of this year was significantly more resilient than many expected，And as inflation slows，The consumer environment has also become positive. nonetheless，Economic challenges and problems remain，The pace of growth in consumer spending is gradually slowing. "