12.29 Analysis of the trend of foreign exchange gold today and the latest trading strategy of gold and crude oil

The latest gold market analysis:

Gold News Analysis: On Wednesday (December 28), as the market seeks new drivers, the price of gold fell slightly from the six-month high hit in the previous trading day and suffered short-term profit-taking, but the decline was limited by the decline in US Treasury yields and the dollar. According to the National Association of Realtors, the US existing home contract sales index fell for the sixth month in November. Transactions in all four regions of the United States fell month-on-month and year-on-year. The US existing home contract sales index in November was -4% monthly rate, expected -0.8%, and the previous value was -4.60%. In the US intraday, spot gold continued its decline and refreshed its daily low to $1796.95, and is now trading at the $1800 line. The dollar index hovered near intraday lows and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated from more than a month's high, limiting gold's decline.

In the gold market, in addition to recession fears, continued volatility in the cryptocurrency market should also continue to support gold. Although gold prices remain an attractive asset at a time when the global economy is on the brink of recession, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to a six-week high the day before, rising around 3.85% at press time, as positive sentiment around China's reopening helped rekindle hopes that the Federal Reserve will accelerate interest rate hikes. The news comes after mixed U.S. inflation and growth data raised questions about the Fed's hawkish moves, especially after the central bank expressed cautious optimism about rate hikes at its most recent monetary policy meeting. Looking ahead, the lack of major data/events is likely to continue to limit the short-term movement of the dollar index, but stronger Treasury yields are in favor of the bulls. Even so, the market consensus for pending U.S. home sales in November remained at 0.6%, compared to a previous reading of -4.6%, which could decorate the calendar. Right now, traders are waiting for Thursday's release of initial jobless claims.

Gold technical analysis: The gold Asian session continued to oscillate between 1815 and 10, slightly weaker overall, and the low point continued to move downwards. And the European session saw another wave of decline in gold, falling to the 1800 line with a puncture. The performance of gold in the Japanese Asian European session was so weak. First, it showed that the overnight market burst belonged to the washing behavior. The market did not recognize such a burst, and the market also returned to the previous weak state. Second, it showed that the current market repeated long and short conversions. Under the influence of the holiday effect, market sentiment is still very emotional risk.

At present, on the daily structure, the gold intraday low has retreated to the vicinity of the 10-day line. Although it has not been effectively broken, it has already appeared to be in jeopardy. In particular, the rollercoaster decline after the overnight burst is enough to show that the overnight is a lure to wash the plate, not the actual trend of the market. The current market trend is weak, which more caters to technical needs. In the evening, it is still important to pay attention to the competition near the 1800-day line on the 10-day line, and the technical short-term power is gradually increasing. Therefore, in the future, we still look forward to and carry out regular technical repairs. The following focuses on the key support 1793-90 area constructed by the 20-day line and the trend line. Once this position is lost, the later adjustment space will also be opened.

Due to the overall weakness during the day, and the market's overnight changes, the hourly chart shows that gold is currently slightly bearish as a whole. The area around 1810 during the day has been converted into a short-term suppression, and it needs to be focused on at night. However, with the continuous downward movement of the center of gravity of the structure, if the US index can cooperate with the strong, then gold may risk breaking the 10-day and 20-day lines at any time. Therefore, the operation of gold in the market outlook also needs to be adjusted to focus on choosing high altitudes to meet the needs of technical trends. However, it is necessary to maintain a reasonable position to prevent the market from being highly controlled again. After all, under the current holiday effect, the market is also prone to being controlled. Overall, today's short-term operation idea of gold is based on Zhang Xinran's suggestion to call back and do more, supplemented by rebound and shorting. The top short-term focus is on the 1817-1822 line of resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 1795-1790 line of support.

The latest crude oil market analysis:

Crude oil news analysis: In the European market on December 28 (Wednesday), US oil traded at $79.64/barrel. Oil prices reached a three-week high on Tuesday and stabilized after some US energy plants closed due to winter storms resumed operations, largely offsetting gains driven by hopes of easing COVID-19 restrictions to boost demand recovery. According to the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) local time on December 27, extreme winter storms have killed at least 63 people in the United States. The National Weather Service said that parts of New York were still experiencing heavy snow on the 27th, causing difficulties for rescue efforts and road cleanup efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday unveiled his response to the imposition of price caps by the West, signing a decree banning the supply of oil and petroleum products to countries imposing the cap for a period of five months from February 1. The Group of Seven (G7), the European Union and Australia agreed this month to impose a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian seaborne crude oil in response to Russia's "special military operations" in Ukraine, effective from December 5. The decree, published by the Kremlin, read: "The decree will come into effect from February 1, 2023 and will last until July 1, 2023. The export of crude oil to the relevant countries will be banned from February 1, but the date of implementation of the ban on petroleum products will be determined by the Russian government, possibly after February 1. The decree includes a clause that allows Mr. Putin to withdraw the ban in exceptional circumstances. Overall, winter storms in the United States may improve, dragging down oil prices, but optimism has returned, boosting demand. Mr. Putin's decree banning crude oil exports to countries with price caps from February 1, and Russia's statement that it has nothing to talk about with NATO, the geopolitical situation still supports oil prices, and the decline in oil prices may be limited.

Technical analysis of crude oil: Crude oil fell back yesterday, and the daily line closed with a small negative K line. The physical K line is small, and there is no continuation of the strong and weak breakthrough in the horizontal finishing. Yesterday, after the backtest of 79.30 stabilized, it first rose to 81.15. However, the continued kinetic energy was insufficient, and the late session still fell back under pressure to below 80.0, and also refreshed the intraday to 79.18. The intraday highs and lows are concentrated in the later period of the US market. Short-term entry into the pull-saw washing. Temporarily insufficient unilateral direction. The daily line passivated the washing plate and waited to choose the direction. The 4-hour chart is still in place after a small increase. The continuity of the long and short lines is insufficient, and the K-line form is that the yin and yang cycle is not continuous, which makes the short-term operation more difficult. The main reason is that the spatial persistence is not strong, making the direction unclear and a little detour. The small increase in kinetic energy is insufficient, resulting in a slight top deviation of the indicators in the attached picture. And the structure is temporarily in the middle of the second wave rising and rebounding. The 4-hour chart does not lose the 77.70 trend line, and the short-term bearish cannot see the space for the time being. The upward energy of the K-line form also seems to be not strong. Makes the space uncertain. It is easy to face the long and short transition in the washing plate. If you are more stable, wait and see first and wait for the direction to be clear, or card the operation time to the European and American plates, In summary, crude oil today's operation ideas on Zhang Xinran suggested to rebound high altitude, step back low more as a supplement, the top short-term attention 80.3-80 line resistance, the bottom short-term attention 77.0-76 line support.