Australian Exchange Forex: US real interest rates rise, can gold shorts be re-deployed?

Two Fed officials preferred to keep interest rates steady in July, according to Fed meeting notes, which pushed up real rates. Most participants still saw significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further monetary tightening.

Australia Exchange: US real interest rates are rising, can gold shorts be re-positioned? (Figure 1)

The monthly rate of U.S. industrial output rose for the first time in three months in July, recording a 1% increase, the largest increase since the beginning of the year. It is expected to be 0.3%, compared with the previous value of -0.5%.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model raised its estimate for U.S. real GDP growth in the third quarter to 5.8% in the early morning of the 17th, and the data was still 5.0% in the early morning of yesterday.

At present, Fedwatch shows that the market expects the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in September is 86.5%, and interest rates may be cut in May next year.

Australia Exchange: US real interest rates are rising, can gold shorts be re-positioned? (Figure 2)

Bridgewater's flagship fund, Pure Alpha Fund, is "moderately" bearish on US equities and Treasuries, most bearish on developed market bonds and equally bearish on the dollar, metals and equities; most bullish on the euro and the Singapore dollar, according to an investor briefing on July 25.

【Gold technical aspect】

Analysis of key points on August 17:

60 minutes GMA-Gold Volatility Trackcritical point1887、1890、1899、1902，You can keep an eye on fluctuating orbital changes near these locations.Gold fluctuating trackIt is calculated based on the calculation of volatility, and it can be reversed if it is used in a volatile market as touching the track! Focus on the position of the 1.5 times fluctuating track and the 2.5 times fluctuating track.

Australia Exchange: US real interest rates are rising, can gold shorts be re-positioned? (Figure 3)

Gold 60 Minute Chart (August 17)day15:04）

15 minutes GMA-10W Long and Short Indicatorcritical point1893，You can keep an eye on the changes in the 10W long-short indicator near these positions.10W Long and Short IndicatorIt is a trend tracking indicator. When a cross is formed after the fast line and the slow line change color, the trend is confirmed. The location of the fast line and the slow line changing color needs special attention to see if there is a layout opportunity.

Australia Exchange: US real interest rates are rising, can gold shorts be re-positioned? (Figure 4)

Gold 15-minute chart (August 17)day15:03）

AohuiForeign exchange risk notice, the above is for reference only

Click to inquire about transaction account opening

Please indicate the source: https://www.daoctech.com/fxnews/609.html

Disclaimer: The content of this article does not represent the views of the Institute of Foreign Exchange. The content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.