FXT Forex Trading Alert

      On August 22, Beijing time, Asian morning trading, the US dollar index (103.1614, -0.1661, -0.16%The dollar index fell on Monday, ending a five-week winning streak and closing 0.1 percent lower at 103.34. Investors bided their time ahead of the Federal Reserve's annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on expectations that major central banks could keep interest rates higher for longer.

      Amo Sahota, head of KlarityFX, said that while the symposium had played a key role in changing market trajectories and thinking over the past few years, it could also bring disappointment. "The US economic data is still strong and the inflation fight has not yet been won," Sahota noted. "The Fed has spoken out many times. I don't think they will turn around and say, 'We are done raising interest rates'. They need to see more, not enough for now."

　　Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell is due to speak on Friday. His remarks could point the way for U.S. Treasury yields, which have fueled the dollar's rally in recent weeks. The theme of this year's Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks is "Structural shifts in the global economy". 

　　Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said of Ms Lagarde, ECB president: "If we look at the Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, Lagarde's remarks may actually move markets more than Powell. If Powell stays theoretical, that could reduce implied volatility in the dollar and lead to a smaller reaction."    

　　"Federal Reserve Watch":The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% -5.50% in September is 86.0%.The probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50% -5.75% is 14.0%; the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by November is 57.4%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 38.0%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 4.7%.145.89, -0.3100, -0.21%) closed up 0.58% at 146.21. People are closely watching whether the Japanese authorities will intervene in the yen exchange rate,Analysts currently believe the threshold for intervention is around 150。

　　Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, said a strong dollar is a problem for the Bank of Japan because it could expose the yen to unwanted weakness.

　　Monday EUR (1.0914, 0.0019, 0.17%Against the dollar, it rallied to close up 0.22 per cent at 1.0895 as expectations of a rate rise from the European Central Bank helped boost the euro. Danske Bank said that inflation in the euro zone is high, and the European Central Bank's interest rate hike may exceed market expectationsChristian Anson, an observer at the European Central Bank at Danske Bank Research, said in a report that the two risks facing the euro zone are that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates more than market expectations, or that inflation will remain higher than market expectations.

　　"I think inflation is likely to be priced above the ECB's target for longer than it is currently priced. So the ECB is likely to maintain its tightening stance for longer," he said. He said that in the current phase of fine-tuning policy tightening, "a cautious pace is the right way to go".

　　Monday Pound (1.2777, 0.0022, 0.17%Against the dollar, it closed higher at 1.2755. Wage growth hit a record high, and expectations of a September interest rate hike by the Bank of England rose, helping to boost the pound. 

　　Average bonus-excluded wages rose 7.8 per cent a year in the quarter to June, the highest annual rate since comparable records began in 2001 and higher than the 7.5 per cent rise in the previous period and the 7.4 per cent forecast by economists, according to the data, which analysts believe is due to many employers raising wages to retain or attract staff. The data further contributed to high inflation in the UK.

　　For now, traders are again factoring in the possibility of a big rate hike, with money markets suggesting a 50 basis point chance of the Bank of England hiking in September is almost one in three.

　　Mr. Rossiter, global head of macro strategy at TD Securities, said: "The MPC is now almost certain to raise rates by at least 25 basis points in September. We also do not rule out a 50 basis point hike if the CPI data or next month's wage data again beat expectations."

　　Tuesday's key data and events

　　Institutional Perspectives Summary

　　1. Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst: Australian dollar (0.6425, 0.0012, 0.19%This week will continue to underperform.On Monday in the Asian market, the Australian dollar was trading at a low level of nearly nine and a half months. It is currently trading around 0.6405. Last Thursday, the exchange rate reached a low of 0.6364, a new low since November 4. It was weighed down by concerns about the economic prospects of major Asian countries.

　　② "We believe the Aussie dollar will continue to underperform this week, and we see a growing likelihood that the Aussie will fall below $0.60 by the end of the year," said strategists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in a note to clients. "Reversing this decline will likely require large-scale stimulus packages by major Asian governments focused on commodity-intensive infrastructure spending."

　　2. Goldman Sachs: The dollar will experience a rally before economic growth in Europe and Asia improves.

　　A resilient US economy and a hawkish Federal Reserve mean the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen until there are signs of a pick-up in growth in Europe or Asia, according to Goldman Sachs. Kamakshya Trivedi, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, wrote that the two main factors currently affecting the market are the resilience of the US economy and the challenges of Asian growth, both of which now appear to be conducive to further dollar strength. Speaking at Jackson Hole this week, Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell is likely to reiterate the Fed's determination to contain inflation, which will continue to support the dollar. Therefore, a recovery in economic growth in Asia and Europe is required to reverse the dollar's rise;

　　3. JPMorgan Chase: The threshold for Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market may be around 150.

　　JPMorgan analysts believe that the Japanese Ministry of Finance will not intervene at the level of around 145 yen against the dollarforeign exchange marketThe threshold for intervention in the Japanese currency market is likely to be around 150. The fundamentals of the Japanese economy have been improving since the finance ministry last intervened to boost the yen last year. The intervention needed now is not as urgent as in September and October last year.

      FXTForeign exchange investment reminds the majority of foreign exchange friends to always pay attention to market information and anticipate in advance.