FXT foreign exchange market consultation. The euro is above the 1.0700 mark against the US dollar, and the US August CPI European Bank interest rate decision has attracted much attention

Sept. 11 - The euro remains under pressure above the 1.0700 zone on fears of a recession in the euro zone. Optimistic U.S. economic data supports talk of higher U.S. interest rates for longer. Economists expect the European Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. U.S. CPI in August, the European Central Bank's interest rate decisions will be closely watched.

The euro has struggled to rise against the dollar after Friday's turbulence. The pair rallied slightly in the Asian session on Monday and is now up 0.24%, trading around 1.0724. On Friday, the dollar ended its eight-week streak of gains and ended close to flat as markets became cautious ahead of the week's key inflation data. On Monday in the Asian market, the dollar index weakened slightly and is now down 0.31%, trading around 104.73.Last week's upbeat US data may have persuaded the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold at its September meeting, but markets expect another 25 basis points hike by the end of the year.The market expects a 93% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, and a 43.5% chance that it will raise rates at its November meeting.

In terms of data, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ended September 2 was 216,000, better than the consensus expected 234,000, while the revised data last week was 229,000 (the previous week was 228,000). Market participants will take more clues from the US CPI for August, which is scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

On the other hand, data released by the German Statistical Office last Friday showed that the German unified CPI (HICP) rose by 6.4% year-on-year in August, in line with market expectations, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 6.1%. In addition, the second quarter GDP of the euro area grew by 0.1%, which was lower than the expected 0.3%, compared with the previous value of 0.3%. The euro was more volatile during the session and continued its downward trend due to investors' concerns about a potential economic recession.These dismal data could persuade the European Central Bank to abandon its hawkish stance at its upcoming meeting。

The survey revealed that...Most economists expect the European Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting on September 14The ECB's approach is based on upcoming economic dataCompared with the eurozone, US economic data increase the likelihood of the Fed's narrative of "longer and higher" interest rates.

Looking ahead, investors will be closely watching the U.S. release of CPI for August in search of fresh momentum. Monthly data is expected to rise by 0.5%, while core monthly data is expected to remain at 0.2%. On Thursday, attention will turn to the European Central Bank's monetary policy, an event that could give a clear direction to the EURUSD.

EUR/USD daily chart

At 11:08 on September 11, Beijing time, the euro was trading at 1.0724/26 against the US dollar.