U.S. one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.6 percent, and long-term inflation expectations reached their highest level in 15 months

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Monday that Americans' overall views on inflation changed slightly in August, although long-term inflation expectations showed signs of rising again. At the same time, households' perceptions of their current financial situation and expectations for the future deteriorated sharply. They predict that prices such as rents, home prices and food will rise.

The New York Fed said in its August consumer sentiment survey,Inflation expectations were relatively stable last monthRespondents expectOne year later.The inflation rate was 3.6%, up from 3.5% in July.Reversing the previous four consecutive months of declineThis series of data is usually also a proxy indicator of oil prices; they expectThree years later.Inflation will reach 2.8%, down from 2.9% in July; respondents expectFive years later.The inflation rate was 3%, up from 2.9% in July.It reached its highest level since March 2022, the most worrying observation in the survey。

At the same time, respondents predicted an acceleration in price increases across a range of key categories, with gasoline, food, rent, medical bills and college costs all expected to rise in the August survey.Respondents also predict that house prices will rise by 3.1%, the highest level since July 2022.This is of course contrary to the Federal Reserve's wishes, indicating thatThe Federal Reserve's austerity program has failed miserably in slowing growth in the most important asset class for the American middle class。

Although the latest reversal in the downward trend in inflation is worrying, what is even more worrying is the report's finding that,Respondents are more pessimistic about access to credit and their current and future financial situationThe median expected growth rate of household income fell to 2.94 percent, the lowest since July 2021 and down from 3.2 percent in July. A growing number of households report that it has become more difficult to access credit, and a growing number of respondents predict that credit audits will be more rigorous in the coming monthsAt the same time, respondents are less optimistic about their current and future financial situation, and are increasingly pessimistic about the job market.

according toIndustrial foreign exchangeAccording to statistics, the average unemployment expectation, that is, the unemployment rate in the United States, isOne year later.The average probability of losing your job in the next 12 months rose by 1.8 percentage points to 38.5%, still below the average of 40.2% over the past 12 months. The average perceived probability of losing your job in the next 12 months rose by 2 percentage points to 13.8%, the highest level since April 2021. The average probability of voluntarily leaving your job in the next 12 months also increased by 1.9 percentage points to 18.9%.

The New York Fed survey comes ahead of next week's September policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is widely expected to keep its target rate between 5.25 per cent and 5.5 per cent after raising rates by 25 basis points at the end of July.

In recent weeks, Federal Reserve officials have signaled a new phase of monetary policy as evidence mounts that the high inflation that led them to sharply raise interest rates is finally starting to return toward their 2 percent target. Still, officials have maintained the prospect that they may have to raise rates again.

Fed officials take comfort in the recent performance of expected inflation because they believe that public expectations of price pressures will have a strong impact on current inflation levels. To this end, stable inflation expectations support their view that inflation is returning to target.

Williams, president of the New York Fed, said on Thursday that inflation expectations "have been performing very well". More broadly, "things are moving in the right direction and our policy is in good shape, but we need to continue to rely on data, monitor developments and assess what we need to do".