DBG Shield Bo official website: The technical trump card of the US dollar is exposed! The three most concerned price points for traders

On Thursday (April 24), the US dollar index (DXY) continued its recent pattern of weak volatility. Market sentiment was influenced by multiple factors: on the one hand, Trump's recent dovish remarks on tariffs and his conciliatory attitude towards the independence of the Federal Reserve have partially eased market concerns about the US economic environment, supporting the dollar to rebound from its early-week lows; on the other hand, investors' doubts about the sustainability of Trump's policies and fluctuations in global risk aversion continue to weigh on the dollar. Combined with the latest technical and fundamental signals, the short-term trend of the dollar is weak.DBG Dunbo official websiteSigns of mid-term oversold are emerging, and a breakthrough in key price points will determine the future direction.

Fundamental Analysis: Policy Signals and Market Sentiment Game

The recent volatility of the dollar has been mainly driven by Trump's policy statements. Analysts at prominent institutions have pointed out that Trump's recent dovish rhetoric on tariffs and less intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve have boosted market confidence in the US investment climate. In particular, on Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's remarks at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) event, emphasizing that the United States maintains a "strong dollar policy", provided verbal support for the dollar. Bessent's remarks eased market concerns about the possible weakening of the dollar's reserve status, driving the dollar to rebound from Monday's low. However, market confidence in the continuity of Trump's policy remains fragile. Previously, Trump quickly imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods after a 90-day tariff suspension, which caught risk assets off guard. Some traders believe that Trump's dovish remarks may be a short-term strategy. Investors tend to sell their holdings when the dollar rebounds, as evidenced by the decline in the dollar/yen from a high of 143.50.

The global macro environment also adds complexity to the trend of the dollar. Continued tensions in Russia and Ukraine have boosted safe-haven demand, but the attractiveness of the dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset has not been fully realized, and some funds have flowed to other reserve currencies such as the euro. Fed policy expectations are also critical. Although recent data show that inflation pressures in the United States have eased, market expectations for the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts remain unclear. If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance in the coming months, the dollar may find support; conversely, if interest rate cut expectations heat up, the dollar will face further downward pressure. At present, the market is closely monitoring Trump's policy developments and the signals from the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting to judge the next trend of the dollar.

Technical analysis: the contradiction between short-term weakness and medium-term oversold

60-Minute Chart: Short-term bears dominate, focusing on Bollinger Band lower rail support

The US dollar index is currently quoted at 99.3904, close to the 60-minute chart Bollinger Band lower rail at 99.3954, indicating that it is in a weak area in the short term. The Bollinger Band lower rail serves as a key support. If the price effectively falls below, it may open up further downward space. The next target points to 98.9780 or even lower. On the contrary, if the lower rail support is effective, the rebound target will first test the Bollinger Band middle rail at 99.6752, and the upper rail at 99.9549 will become a key resistance after the breakthrough. In terms of the moving average system, the red 26-period moving average (99.4479) and the green 12-period moving average (99.4723) both suppress the price, forming a short arrangement, but the distance between the two lines is narrow. If the price rebounds to stand on the moving average, it may trigger a short cover and promote a restorative rebound. The RSI indicator is currently at 55.4670, slightly above 50 If the RSI falls below 50, short-term short momentum will strengthen; if it recovers and stands above 50, it may drive the price to rebound. Intra-day demand focuses on the breakout direction of the 99.3954 to 99.6752 range, which will determine the strength of the short-term trend.

4-Hour chart: Medium-term oversold, rebound demand is emerging

On the 4-hour chart, the US Dollar Index is above 98.9780 in the Bollinger Band mid-rail. It has not yet completely weakened, but it is close to the potential support of 97.8098 in the lower rail. If the price loses the mid-rail, it may accelerate the downward test of 97.8098; if the mid-rail stabilizes, the rebound target will point to 99.1186 above the moving average system. Currently, the red 26-period moving average (99.1186) and the green 12-period moving average (98.6395) provide some support, but the moving average has not formed a clear long arrangement. The medium-term trend still needs to be confirmed. The RSI indicator value is 30.1245, which has entered the oversold area, indicating that there is a rebound demand in the medium term. However, if the price continues to be under pressure, the RSI may further lower and prolong the weak Traders need to pay close attention to the interaction between the support of the 98.9780 medium rail and the pressure of the 99.1186 moving average. A breakout in either direction will clarify the medium-term trend momentum.

Cross-cycle linkage: short-term and medium-term divergence and resonance

The short-term weakness of the 60-minute chart contradicts the medium-term oversold of the 4-hour chart. If the price of the 60-minute chart stabilizes and rebounds at 99.3954 of the lower Bollinger Band, and drives the RSI back above 50, it may resonate with the support of the 4-hour chart at 98.9780 of the middle rail, pushing the price to test the Bollinger Band upper rail at 100.1462. Conversely, if the 60-minute chart falls below the lower rail, the short-term selling pressure may exacerbate the risk of the 4-hour chart approaching the lower rail at 97.8098. The interaction of the moving average system is particularly critical: the divergence between the moving average suppression (99.4479/99.4723) of the 60-minute chart and the middle support (98.9780) of the 4-hour chart may trigger a trend move. Traders should focus on monitoring the key price levels of these two cycles to look for breakout signals

Future trend outlook: key price points determine the direction

Combined with the fundamentals and technical aspects, the US dollar index may continue its weak pattern of volatility in the short term, but the demand for a medium-term rebound is accumulating. In terms of fundamentals, the sustainability of Trump's policy remains the greatest uncertainty. If his dovish remarks continue and the Federal Reserve maintains a relatively hawkish stance, the US dollar may stabilize in the range of 98.9780 to 99.3954, testing the resistance level of 100.1462 or even higher. However, if Trump's policy turns hawkish again, or global risk aversion further pushes other reserve currencies higher, the US dollar may fall below 98.9780 and accelerate to 97.8098. Technically, the lower Bollinger Band of the 60-minute chart at 99.3954 and the middle track of the 4-hour chart at 98.9780 are the core supports in the short and medium term. The breakout direction will determine the next trend momentum of the US dollar.

Be wary of sudden fluctuations caused by Trump's policy pronouncements and Federal Reserve dynamics. In the short term, the trend in the range of 99.3954 to 99.6752 will provide important guidance to the market, while the clarity of the medium-term trend depends on the effectiveness of the 98.9780 support.