1.17 Before the pressure: EUR/USD enters the "event vacuum trial and error period"

On Friday (August 8), the euro/dollar fell from a one-week high, and the European session traded around the 1.1640 line. The direct catalyst for this round of decline was the news that Christopher Waller was seen as a favorite to replace Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve chairperson, and the dollar rebounded from a low level.

Previously, Reuters quoted sources as saying that members of Trump's team were "impressed" after meeting with Waller (he has not yet met the president in person); Waller has been appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in his first term, and his recent statements favoring "lower interest rates" have attracted wide market attention, but his professional reputation is still not considered to hurt the credibility of the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, Stephen Miran, who works on fiscal and economic policy, is seen as a favourite to fill the vacant Adriana Kugler seat on the Fed's board of governors and will have the right to vote at its September, October and December meetings in what has been interpreted as a forward-looking layout for a "looser" path for the White House.

At the macro level, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States 226,000 last week (expected 221,000, the previous value was 218,000); the growth rate of non-farm unit output in the second quarter was lower than expected by 2.4%, and the increase in unit labor costs by 1.6% was slightly higher than the expected 1.5% but still moderate. Bostic, the Atlanta Fed, emphasized the upside risk of tariffs to inflation at an online event, and predicted only one interest rate cut in the second half of 2025. It is still cautious about whether to cut interest rates in September. According to Reuters, the news that Trump will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week has boosted hopes of a potential "reconciliation" in the situation in Ukraine, and has formed marginal support for the euro in recent days. The schedule of today's US session is light, and only the speech of St. Louis Federal Reserve President Mussalem is worth noting.

Fundamentals:

The dollar edged higher amid uncertainty about a new Fed president and a "marginal weakening" of the labor market. Waller's ascendancy would be interpreted as a "neutral dove": he favors lower interest rates but emphasises data dependency, implying a smoother rather than more aggressive path. Miran's short-term entry and three votes would give the market an early trade in the possibility that "the committee is more willing to discuss easing".

On the data side, the market consensus 226,000 higher than 221,000, superimposed on the previous value 218,000, points to a mild cooling of employment momentum; 2.4% of unit output is less than the strong range, and 1.6% of unit labor costs is slightly higher than expected but still in the "tolerable" range. Taken together, cooling growth + moderate costs are poised for medium-term interest rate cuts, but Bostic's statement that only "one interest rate cut" in the second half of 2025 reminds the market that the re-stickiness of inflation may make the short-term "early easing" bet face repetition. Geopolitically, the "US-Russia meeting" + the expectation of peace in Ukraine will boost the euro risk premium in the short term; but before the Fed personnel and path are settled, the dollar's "event-driven" flexibility is still strong, and the exchange rate's sensitivity to news will remain high. Today, only Mussalem's speech, the above theme will still dominate the disk.

Technical aspects:

The four-hour chart (240 K) shows that the Bollinger Band is gently opened, with the upper and lower tracks at 1701/1.1513 and the middle track at 1.1607. The price has fallen back from the high point of 1.1698 and is still running above the middle track.

Brin's upper orbit 1.1701 and the near-end high of 1.1698 form a first-line resistance area. If there is no strong breakthrough, the short-term probability will maintain the interval oscillation above and below the middle orbit. The kinetic energy of the MACD gold fork slows down, indicating that the upper action energy margin is weakened but not yet emptied; the RSI (14) reading is 56.7765, which is in the neutral strong area.

Below 1.1607 is the main dynamic support. If it falls below, look down at the lower Bollinger rail at 1.1513; further afield, the front low of 1.1391 is a strong support band. The upper resistance is the resonance zone of 1.1698 and 1.1701, and the further is the front high of 1.1788.

Overall, the backstepping above the Bollinger mid-rail stabilizes - a retest of the upper rail is the current higher probability path; but if the MACD cylinder quickly falls back to near the zero axis and the RSI falls below 50, the lower edge of the interval backstepping will become the main line.

Market sentiment observation:

Since the beginning of this week, dollar sentiment has switched from "looking for an anchor to cut interest rates" to "personnel game-driven volatility trading". The market's interpretation of the Waller and Miran combination is a dilemma: on the one hand, there is a bet on "easier easing"; on the other hand, there is a vigilance against "Fed independence and long-term inflation stickiness". Initially, 226,000 and 2.4% output jointly strengthen the narrative of "deceleration of growth", but Bostic only gave guidance for a rate cut in the second half of 2025, suppressing excessive "rapid decline" trading.

The emotional level is therefore manifested as: reluctance to make a large directional increase in the dollar, preferring to carry out mean reversion and range strategy near the key position. On the other hand, the increase in risk appetite brought about by the "US-Russia meeting" is a plus for the euro, but the geographical progress is highly uncertain. Once expectations fail, the aforementioned "risk premium" will push the euro back to the middle track and even the lower track. The common short-term volatility on the contract side (from the perspective of options) converges first and then expands, which is in line with the current MACD kinetic energy flattening and fluctuations near the median RSI; on the eve of a weekend with low event intensity, gamma and time values may suppress the one-sided sustainability of the trend.