Crude oil trading reminder: US tariffs on India coexist with geopolitical tensions, and US crude oil rebounds slightly

On Friday morning in Asia, WTI crude oil prices remained at $64.18 a barrel, amid concerns that U.S. pressure on India could trigger supply chain disruptions.

US President Donald Trump announced this week that he would raise tariffs on some Indian imports to 50%, a policy that directly targets India's purchase of discounted Russian crude oil, weighing on oil market sentiment.

Russia launched a missile and drone attack on Ukraine on Thursday that killed at least 21 people in Kiev, according to market research. At the same time, Ukraine said it used drones to hit two Russian oil refineries. An escalation of the conflict could pose a supply risk, providing some short-term support for oil prices.

"The market is digesting both the push-up effect of geopolitical tensions and the dampening effect of US sanctions, making oil prices even more volatile," said one energy analyst.

The market will continue to monitor whether India complies with the US request to reduce Russian oil purchases, as well as the latest developments in the situation in Russia and Ukraine. These factors will directly affect supply expectations and price fluctuations.

From a technical perspective, the short-term is still below the intensive pressure range, with an important support of $63.50 during the day. If it falls below or further drops to $62.80. The upper resistance level is $64.80, and if it breaks through, it is expected to test $66.00. The RSI neutral is weak, indicating that short-term bears still have the advantage, but the inventory data may limit the downside.

Editorial opinion:

WTI prices are currently in a volatile range with multiple factors: the news of US pressure on India and tariffs has intensified downward pressure in the short term, but the decline in EIA inventories and the escalation of geopolitical conflicts have provided support for oil prices.

Oil prices may remain in the range of $63-66 in the short term, and the medium- and long-term trend will depend on the actual impact of US policy on India's crude oil imports, and whether the conflict between Russia and Ukraine further affects the energy supply chain.