In-depth analysis of foreign exchange support and resistance positions

Daofeng: Hello everyone, I am Daofeng, and it is a pleasure to communicate with you here today. We mainly talk about the support and resistance positions of currencies such as the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Japanese yen. For foreign exchange trading, support and resistance positions are very important concepts and indicators that often need to be considered in trading, but these alone cannot complete the transaction. Today, I will highlight the key positions of these currencies in the short and medium term, and talk about how to refine traditional methods to improve the accuracy of operations. In foreign exchange analysis,hycmForex PlatformThe tools provided can also assist in judging these technical points.

When it comes to support and resistance positions, first of all, you need to have a big concept: what exactly are the support and resistance you are referring to? If you think that after the euro breaks through 1.250 to 1.270, there will be support and resistance, which is not wrong, but this is an incomplete concept. Breaking through the water level or a certain support and resistance position in the intraday is only part of the meaning. Support and resistance can be judged by drawing lines or measuring theories, but this is only part of it. There is also a category of potential support and resistance that cannot be seen through the drawing of lines in the graph. The second point is support and resistance in time, which many investors do not pay attention to. Today, I mainly talk about space issues. I will add a few words at the end of time, such as calculating the conversion of time support and resistance. If you pay attention to the exchange rate review, it is mentioned from August 1st that non-US currencies will go through a good market in August, which is supported by time.

First look at the daily chart of the Swiss franc. The Swiss franc continued to fall in the early stage, and it was sorted around 1.31. At that time, we mentioned on radio and television that it was difficult to say whether this water level was at the bottom, but we knew that there would be no problem entering. In the later stage, the Swiss franc appeared in a convergent pattern with dense oscillations, which is often a harbinger of intermediate markets. The red arrow points to the day, and there is some pullback after the Swiss franc broke through, but we think the intermediate market began. Spatially, after breaking through the convergent behavior, the Swiss franc runs for a few hundred points without any problem. The three dotted lines in the figure are horizontal lines drawn with the high and low points of the convergent pattern, which is a judgment of the measurement scale, but is not enough as a trading decision. The Swiss franc should at least rise to the first dotted line, and after breaking through to the second do In the later stage, you can pay attention to the 1.2300 water level. As long as there is no decline in the past week and the time continues to support, there is room for space. From 1.115 to 1.31, 1600 points, the market rebounded 50% to about 1.2350, which needs to be combined with the stop loss judgment.

Take three examples: two successes and one failure. When the early breakout is recommended to buy the pound decisively and set a wide stop loss. When the euro breaks through 1.2270, the stop loss is set below 1.220. The second success. The third suggestion is that when the Swiss franc breaks through 1.2560, it is connected, and there is more than 100 points of profit but it is stopped. When the intermediate market unfolds, the stop loss setting is necessary. It can be set at the stop loss position of the entire weekly chart, and it can be rewarded even if there is an oscillation. The Swiss franc stop loss can be focused on the 1.2670 water level, which is the low of the week and should not fall below it next week. When the market rises rapidly, the traditional stop loss method may be difficult to set. You can set the stop loss at a position judged by yourself, such as below the lowest point in the past one or two trading days. The rise is driven by funds and can be decisively intervened Analytical data from the HYCM foreign exchange platform can help identify such key levels. If it continues to rise, stop losses can be set below the moving average or below the lows of the past one or two days. The Swiss franc's low for the week is 1.2670, and the short-term key support is 1.2560, which is an important high for the previous breakout.

From the daily chart, the Swiss franc oscillated for two days in the first six or seven trading days, and the high of 1.2560 was a breakout problem. This time the Swiss franc did not take as long as the euro and the pound, because there was a problem with the stop loss setting, and it was vibrated during the oscillation. Now reflect on the pros and cons. The euro and pound broke through clearly, but the Swiss franc wanted to be short-term, so the stop loss was narrow. Foreign exchange transactions need to weigh the pros and cons.

Then look at the Canadian dollar, mainly talking about the stop loss position. The rise of the Canadian dollar is judged by fundamentals, and the direction of the market can be clearly judged by thousands of points every time. During the rebound of the US dollar, the Canadian dollar benefited from the trade stimulus of the United States and Canada, and the Canadian dollar performed well when the US dollar was strong. We have provided two opportunities, one at five or six hundred points and one at one thousand points. If the Canadian dollar falls back in the later stage, when the US dollar slowly rises, the cross between the euro and the Canadian dollar is still worthy of attention. Now there is an adjustment in non-US currencies, and the need to operate the Canadian dollar is not great. The mainstream focus of the

The weekly chart of the Canadian dollar has a simple trend line. Draw to the current water level, and the moving average will coincide around 1.21 next week. 1.21 will be strong next week. Do short-term trading and buy back during the session. The market atmosphere is still long. Stop loss can be set according to the previous method. If held for a long time, the European currency will adjust normally after six weeks of rise, as long as it does not fall below 1.23. The Canadian dollar has hit a short-term high. After breaking through the 1.1946 high on January 12, the space will open, but the degree needs to be debated. The rise of the Canadian dollar is not a hot spot in this round. When all currencies hit short-term highs, if it is judged that non-US currencies are rebounding, there will be problems in the later stage. There may be problems with the flow of funds, and the early profit selling will come out. The rise of the Canadian dollar is good in the short term, but After the Canadian dollar breaks through 1.1450, it may break through 1.1880. There is a crossing line that can be drawn on the Canadian dollar. The previous two lows, the third high, and the fourth high hit this line for four consecutive points, and 1.1880 constitutes resistance. It also depends on the performance of the Canadian dollar's handicap, whether there are key oscillations or fractals.

Finally, let's talk about the trend of the yen. From 2003, the yen thousand-point range was prompted, as well as the long-term trend. In September 2003, the yen broke through 115, and the concept of the thousand-point range appeared. From the next two and a half years to the end of this year, the yen will run in the 115 to 105 range. This is based on the judgment of space. Investors will not invest and buy for a long time above 105. The yen trade is very simple: buy when it is close to 113 to 115, sell when it breaks through 109 to 105, and there are five or six hundred-point opportunities for many times. When the yen breaks through 110 and rises to more than 109, the risk is difficult to control, but above 112 can be followed. In terms of time, the yen rebound In July, it was commented that all currencies reached their limits in space, and the transformation of European currency support and resistance in time was more complicated.

Judging that the yen was running in the range before September 2005, how to go after that? In the long run, the yen has continued to rise in the past few decades, but it has turned into a long-term oscillation since the 1990s. In the next ten to twenty years, it may evolve from the 80 to 120 range to 1:200 or even higher. The yen will fall for a long time in the next ten years. The yen in the picture has reached more than 130 before breaking through 115, and it cannot be judged to break through 100 to 90. If it breaks through 100 and runs to 95, 98, 96 or even higher, investors can sell in batches after breaking through 90, earning at least a few thousand points. Short-term ideas: selling when the yen rises to 101 and 102 will definitely make money, because it was still running in the range before September 2005, with a median of 109 to 110.

Today's support and resistance positions will talk about this. Investors often ask whether the rebound of non-US currencies has turned into a reversal. The market trend depends on the market atmosphere and focus. At present, the main line of the market is interest rate issues, not economic data. The rebound of non-US currencies is based on the interest rates of various currencies: the Australian dollar has high interest rates and rises first; the British pound leads among European currencies; finally, the Japanese yen is pushed up. The US dollar interest rate will be higher in the future, and it is difficult for the US dollar to fall continuously for a long time. The rise of non-US currencies is a rebound. In terms of time and space, the euro has rebounded for six weeks, and it should rise for eight consecutive weeks. After stabilizing this week, the space will increase. European currencies rose slowly for four weeks before August, and you need to be vigilant after September. When the European currency adj The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week, but the market ignored it, but the high-interest currency is difficult to fall continuously after the interest rate is raised. The best market for non-US is wide oscillation. I maintain my judgment in June: EUR 1.20 to 1.24 will not be trapped. In the next two to four months, including August, 1.20 to 1.24 is not an absolute high. There are low opportunities for non-US currencies in the remaining market. Investors need to adjust their thinking quickly and be vigilant of the heroic market after a two-week rebound, but be vigilant when they are the most heroic. As I said in early July, the market has abundant arbitrage opportunities, no matter whether it rises or falls. There is never a shortage of opportunities, and they lack the courage and vision to find opportunities. Thank you all.