The United States' resumption of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated inflation concerns, and gold has fluctuated around $4,000, waiting for the CPI data to arrive

The international gold market continued to be under pressure during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, with spot gold (XAU/USD) falling to$4,000.In the vicinity of/ounce, it has continued to lag behind in a row to maintain weakness. Although the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains high, the market's expectations for the long-term maintenance of high interest rate policy in the United States continue to rise, which has suppressed gold safe-haven buying to a certain extent.

US President Donald Trump recently announced the resumption of maritime blockade measures against Iranian-related vessels and required payment for all other commercial goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz20% of the compensatory feeIn addition, Trump also said that the United States will continue to carry out military operations against Iran, and stressed that it will continue to maintain high-intensity strikes in the coming days. As tensions between the United States and Iran further escalate, the risk of global energy transportation continues to rise.

Market participants widely believe that if the United States re-tightens restrictions on Iranian ports and ships, Iran may further increase its interference with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil shipments. If transportation continues to be blocked, international energy prices may rise further, which will push up global inflation.

For the gold market, geopolitical risks usually strengthen safe-haven demand, but the current market is more concerned that higher energy prices could re-inflate inflation and force the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for a longer period of time. Because gold itself does not generate interest income, when the market expects interest rates to remain high for a long time, the opportunity cost of holding gold rises, reducing the willingness of funds to allocate to gold, so gold prices have not fully benefited from the increase in risk aversion.

On the other hand, investors are waiting for the US consumer price index (CPI) data to be released in the evening, which will be a key factor affecting the short-term trend of gold. The market expects the overall US CPI monthly rate in June to be about-0.1%The monthly core CPI rate is expected to increase0.3%If the inflation data is lower than market expectations, it may further weaken the trend of the US dollar and strengthen the market's expectations for future monetary policy adjustments, thus providing temporary support for gold; conversely, if the inflation data is strong, it may further consolidate the expectations of the Federal Reserve to maintain a high interest rate policy, so that gold continues to face downward pressure.

In addition, the market will also focus on the congressional testimony delivered by Federal Reserve Chairperson Kevin Warsh on the same day. Investors hope to get the latest judgment on the future path of interest rates, inflation situation and economic outlook from his speech. If the speech continues to send a cautious signal, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may remain high, suppressing gold. If the language is more moderate than market expectations, it is expected to ease the policy pressure on gold.CXM Forex

From a technical perspective, the daily trend of spot gold is still in the adjustment stage, and the price has fallen below$4,000.After the integer mark, the overall trend weakened. The MACD indicator maintained a dead fork structure and the green bar continued to amplify, indicating that the bears still had an advantage; the RSI indicator fell back to the neutral weak area, reflecting the weakening of market buying power. If gold prices continue to be under pressure, the following are the first to pay attention$3975.Nearby support, further support is located at$3940Area; if able to regain its footing$4,000.Above, it is expected to go up$4025.and$4050There is resistance nearby, but the market may remain cautious until important data is released.

Looking at the 4-hour cycle, gold is still running in the downward channel in the short term, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. The MACD indicator maintains a dead fork but the growth rate of the green column has slowed down, indicating that although the short-term decline has not ended, the short momentum has weakened slightly compared with before; the RSI is running near 40, and market sentiment is still cautious. If the US CPI data is lower than expected, gold is expected to use the US dollar to fall back to launch a technical rebound and challenge$4025.Resistance area; if inflation data is higher than market expectations, gold prices may further decline$3975.even$3940Supporting the region, short-term volatility is expected to intensify significantly.

edit summary

The current gold market is being influenced by the combined forces of geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations. Although the escalation of the situation in the Middle East has boosted the demand for safe havens, the market is more concerned that rising energy prices may re-inflate inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a high interest rate stance, which will continue to pressure the short-term trend of gold. The US CPI data in June and the speech of Federal Reserve Chairperson Kevin Walsh will be important catalysts to determine the direction of the market. If inflation pressure eases significantly, gold is expected to usher in a phased rebound; if inflation remains stubborn, the US dollar and US bond yields may continue to remain strong, and there is still a risk of further correction in gold. Investors should focus on the sustained impact of inflation data, the trend of the US dollar and the changes in the Middle East on market risk appetite in the short term.