Decode foreign exchange platform: strong dollar presses oil prices, vigilant EIA inventory data once again supports oil price bull resistance

On Friday (December 27), U.S. crude oil rose slightly in the Asian session.Decode Forex PlatformAnalysis - Trading near $69.63/barrel, the fundamentals are due to the fact that the dollar index is still running at a high level, and the strong dollar has pressured oil prices, offsetting market expectations for a pick-up in demand.

The short-term daily price is consolidating around the moving average, maintaining range volatility when there is no direction change in the fundamentals. This trading day needs to focus on whether the EIA inventory data can break the game, give short-term direction choices, and continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and changes in the dollar index.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January 2025 rises to 12.8%, compared to 8.6% the day before.

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January 2025 is 87.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 12.8%.

The probability of maintaining current interest rates unchanged through March 2025 is 50.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 44.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 5.4%.

The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut in 2025 has slowed down, pressuring demand to pick up expectations, which is unfavorable to the strengthening of oil price bulls and continues to pay attention to the direction of US bond yields.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to its lowest level in a month last week, but they have been out of work for longer

Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in a month last week, in line with a cooling but still healthy labor market or keeping Federal Reserve officials from further rate cuts in the near term.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 219,000 in the week ending Dec. 21, the Labor Department said on Thursday, compared with a forecast of 224,000 by economists polled by Reuters.

Although jobless data has fluctuated since Thanksgiving due to seasonal problems caused by increased hiring of temporary workers during the holiday season, the latest jobless claims are still in line with the past year's average of just over 220,000 and show little sign of climbing layoffs.

At the same time, it is difficult for the unemployed to find a new job and stay longer on the list of jobless benefits, resulting in an increase in the number of continuing jobless claims. The report shows that the number of seasonally adjusted subsequent jobless claims increased in the week ended December 14 46,000 to 1.91 million, the highest level since November 2021.

Economists had expected the number of people renewing unemployment benefits to 1.88 million, with the average duration of unemployment in November at 23.7 weeks the longest since April 2022 rising steadily from less than 20 weeks in April this year.

Iran and Hamas have both issued statements condemning a wave of Israeli airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen

In a statement, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei called these acts of aggression a clear violation of international peace and security and an undeniable crime against the heroic and noble people of Yemen, who spare no effort to support the oppressed Palestinian people against occupation and genocide.

In a statement, Hamas expressed its condemnation of the brutal terrorist aggression carried out by the Zionist enemy against Yemeni brothers, targeting civilian sites including Sana'a airport and the port of Hodeidah.

Due to the lack of economic data this trading day, oil price volatility continued to slow down. During the day, we focused on EIA inventory data and changes in geopolitical conditions.

From a technical perspective, the US crude oil daily line is still in turmoil, and it is consolidating around the 55-day moving average. At present, the MACD is once again dead, maintaining the box treatment. Pay attention to whether the support near $68.50 is effective during the day.

U.S. crude oil daily chart

At 10:16 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil is now trading at $69.56 per barrel.