Under the combined influence of US economic data and trade sentiment concerns, gold has maintained a high level of volatility

Gold (XAU/USD) fell back under pressure in Asia on Friday, failing to extend the previous day's mild rally. US macroeconomic data released on Thursday was generally strong, including second-quarter GDP growth revised up to 3.8%, durable goods orders rebounded sharply by 2.9%, and initial jobless claims fell to 218,000.

The data strengthened the resilience of the U.S. economy and weakened market expectations for the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cuts, which supported the dollar index to a three-week high and weighed on gold.

Despite this, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once each in October and December. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that inflation is still high, and it is risky to cut interest rates too rashly.

Kansas City Fed President Schmid stressed that moderate policy restrictions are still necessary, but data dependence needs to be maintained. San Francisco Fed President Daley believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation is limited, but a small interest rate cut may be required in the future. Overall, the signals from Federal Reserve officials are still more cautious, which complicates market sentiment.

At the same time, Trump announced high tariffs on products such as medicines, trucks and kitchen cabinets from October 1, and the market worried that the tariffs could have an impact on global economic growth. Such risk aversion has limited the downside of gold prices to some extent.

From the gold daily chart, the price is still running in the high range of the previous rally, but there are already signs of high volatility. The K-line combination shows that the long-short divergence has intensified, and the short-term moving average has turned downward, putting some pressure on the gold price;

However, the medium and long-term moving average still maintains an upward trend, indicating that the overall bullish pattern has not been destroyed. If gold prices can hold the key support of 3,715, there is a chance to restart the upward trend after the shock is sorted out.

Editorial opinion:

Overall, the short-term trend of gold is still constrained by the strong US dollar, but tariff policies and geopolitical risks are still providing support for gold prices. The key to the outlook lies in the performance of the US PCE price index. Once the data is lower than expected, gold may regain upward momentum. It is necessary to focus on the range breakouts of 3,715 and 3,754 to judge the direction choice.