The non-agricultural release is imminent, and gold is consolidating at a high level to be selected

On December 16, spot gold traded near $4,290 in early European trading, and the market as a whole maintained a volatile pattern in key areas. The recent macro main line still revolves around the monetary policy path of major central banks, and the marginal softening of the Federal Reserve's policy stance has become the core factor supporting the trend of precious metals. According toDBG ForexObservation shows that although the price of gold has experienced a short correction, the overall bullish trend has not changed, and it is gradually approaching an important breakthrough area in technology.

Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the third time this year. Although the policy statement continued to emphasize "data dependence", the public statements of several officials showed concern about the weakening of the momentum of the labor market. New York Fed President Williams believes that the current interest rate is moderately restrictive, and reminds that the downward pressure on the employment side cannot be ignored. Fed Governor Milan pointed out that the existing model may overestimate the neutral interest rate, and considering multiple factors such as immigration structure changes, tariff adjustments and tax reform, the real neutral interest rate may be close to zero. These remarks strengthened the market's expectations for continued easing in the future. The current financial marekt pricing shows that there will be at least two additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2026, while the official dot plot only indicates one time. This difference in expectations is gradually widening, reflecting the temperature difference between policymakers and traders on the growth outlook. It also constitutes a potential support for gold prices to a certain extent.

In addition, despite the recent increase in news about the easing of international geopolitical tensions, some core issues have not been fully settled, and uncertainties remain. This means that safe-haven demand has not completely withdrawn from the market pricing system. In the face of uncertainty in many parts of the world, gold's role as a traditional safe-haven tool remains solid.

Market Performance

After experiencing a previous round of rapid rally, spot gold has entered the consolidation stage. The short-term volatility has converged, but the center of gravity has remained upward as a whole. The current price fluctuates in a narrow range between $4,280 and $4,300, and is near the resistance band formed by the previous high. If it can effectively break through and stand firm, it is expected to open a new round of upside.

On the daily structure, spot gold oscillated higher after the low point of 3997.72 formation stage, broke through and stood firm at the 4180 line, and the trend center of gravity continued to rise. Recently, the price broke through 4264.43 and rose to 4353.36, followed by a high consolidation and a slight retracement. Currently, it is still in the retracement range after the previous high breakthrough. In terms of technical indicators, MACD's DIFF and DEA are located above the zero axis and the column is positive, indicating that the bulls are still dominant in kinetic energy, but the expansion of the column has slowed down, or indicating that the short-term momentum has cooled; the RSI is about 66, close to the strong area but not yet extreme. With the high-level yaw of the K-line, it is more likely to enter the stage of strong shock and increase digestion in the future. Structurally, 4260-4290 can be regarded as a short-term long-short watershed, which further supports the focus on the vicinity of 4180, and above it faces the pressure and volatility amplification risk of 4350 and higher ranges. Overall, the understanding of strong trends and volatile rhythms is more secure. DBG foreign exchange analysis believes that the consolidation at this stage will help to accumulate momentum for the follow-up market.

It is worth noting that the United States is about to release the delayed October non-farm payrolls report and the complete November employment data. The market generally expects that only 20,000 non-farm jobs were added in October, and it rebounded to 50,000 in November. The unemployment rate remained near 4.4%, and the overall labor market showed a moderate slowdown. In addition, retail sales data and the preliminary purchasing managers' index in December will also be released one after another. If the data shows that the economy is further cooling, or once again stimulate the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of easing, it will bring new action to gold.

Overall, the core logic supporting the current gold price is that the general background of the easing orientation of monetary policy has not been fundamentally reversed. The Fed's gradual path of interest rate cuts and the uncertainties that have not yet completely subsided have jointly constructed the bottom support for gold. Future market attention will focus on whether the US economic data can further confirm the trend of slowing growth, and whether more officials within the Federal Reserve will turn to a dovish stance. In addition, factors such as the persistence of global central bank gold purchases and the seasonal pick-up in physical demand may also become marginal incremental variables. Under the intertwining effect of multiple factors, the gold market is in a critical window period of transition from quantitative change to qualitative change.