Gold prices rose by $4526.15 and then fell back. Is the rally finally showing signs of weakness?

In the US market on Wednesday (December 24), spot gold fell slightly from its high after hitting a record high of $4,526.15 during the session. The current price trend may form a bearish closing reversal top pattern, but considering that the market is about to close for the Christmas holiday, this pullback is more like a profit-taking and position squaring operation for investors, rather than a material change in the trend. There may be a "high and low" trend today, but further confirmation needs to be confirmed in the next trading day to determine the true reversal of the trend.

Metal plate heat rises, gold rally continues

Gold's final break above the $4,500 mark was not an isolated event - silver and platinum also broke records. Safe-haven demand, expectations of further Federal Reserve easing next year and speculative buying continued to support the rally.

At present, there is no bearish catalyst in the market, and the buyers are still in control. Central bank demand for gold, the weakening of the US dollar, and the strong performance of base metals such as copper have all strengthened the buying power of the entire metals sector. Affected by geopolitical tensions, investors continue to take defensive positions. Gold has risen more than 70% this year, its best annual performance since 1979.

Analysts at Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale believe the only real threat to the rally is a slowdown in central bank gold purchases, which will remain bullish if demand remains at current levels.fxtmforeign exchangeThis also supports its target of hitting $5,000 by the end of 2026.

The interest rate market is stable, and economic growth data adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's policy path

US Treasury yields barely moved as markets closed for the holidays. The 10-year yield hovered around 4.161 per cent, the 2-year yield was around 3.53 per cent and the 30-year yield edged lower. Traders largely stayed on the sidelines after digesting better-than-expected third-quarter gross domestic product figures, which grew at 4.3 per cent, the fastest pace in two years. Initial jobless claims fell to 214,000, suggesting the labour market has not cooled enough for doves to dominate policy entirely.

Fed officials remained divided. Kevin Hassett said the Fed was "way behind the curve" on rate cuts, while Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, argued for interest rate stability in the months ahead. The Fed funds futures market now expects the Fed to delay rate changes until April. The current market environment is not entirely favorable for gold, but as long as real yields do not show sustained increases, gold will still benefit.

The dollar attempts to stabilize, but gold buyers remain confident

After touching a multi-month low of 97.749, the dollar index rallied slightly to 97.927. The dollar strengthened or slowed gold's rally, but the gold price trend shows no signs of being threatened. The key is that bargain buying continues to emerge.

Gold Price Prediction: Unless $4,526.15 is Confirmed as a Top, the Bulls' Tone remains unchanged

(Daily chart of spot gold, source: Internet)

Today's pullback is still relatively limited. Gold could enter a short-term pullback if sellers continue to press and the next trading day confirms a closing reversal top pattern. Without this signal and fundamentals remain supportive, gold's bullish tone will remain unchanged. As long as buyers hold the breakout range and sentiment remains supported by interest rate cut expectations and central bank demand for gold, traders will continue to be bullish rather than bearish.