What is the relationship between gold, crude oil, the euro, and the dollar?

Many friends who make gold foreign exchange crude oil are expected to have some basic concepts about the relationship between these varieties and the US dollar, but they are also vague about some special circumstances. Today, I will specifically sort out the relationship between these varieties and the US dollar. I hope there will be no blind spots later.

First, the relationship between gold and the dollar:

Let's look at the weekly chart of gold and the dollar

1. Summarize: the relationship between gold and the dollar should be "the opposite trend in the stage", but the magnitude of the two is very different, for example, the dollar index fell only 1%, but gold rose 5%, or the US index rose 10%, but gold fell only 2%

Before 2008, the dollar gold standard was dominant, the speculative properties of gold were not strong, and the feedback on the strength of the dollar was almost negligible

Since 2008, the overall trend of gold and the dollar has actually risen, and the overall magnitude is similar

4. The rise of gold in each band will be accompanied by a decline in the dollar index, but the magnitude of the two is completely different, creating the impression that gold will definitely be the opposite of the dollar index at any time

5. It is necessary to speculate in gold and study the US dollar, but do not always use it as a contrarian indicator. When the "risk aversion" of the international market dominates, you can even see gold and the US dollar rise at the same time.

The relationship between crude oil and the dollar

Let's take a look at the synchronized weekly K-line chart of US crude oil and the US dollar index, and compare the daily K-line chart

1. It can be seen that at the same time, after 2000, crude oil and the US dollar showed a more obvious "negative correlation" trend than gold, that is, the US dollar rose and crude oil fell, and the US dollar fell and crude oil rose

2. But it is not always the opposite trend, which requires a clear concept.

3. At the same time, the amplitude of crude oil is basically greater than that of the US dollar index, indicating that the current US crude oil is unusually sensitive to changes in the US dollar index

After the crude oil crash in 2014, the sensitivity of crude oil to the dollar index reached a peak. Compared with gold, crude oil is the most sensitive commodity to changes in the price of the dollar.

5. There is also a difference between the two, and it is important not to leave the two moments opposite. The concept that I will fall as much as you go up must not exist.

The relationship between the euro and the dollar

Let's look at the weekly candlestick chart comparison

It goes without saying that the opposite trend is almost mirrored. In the calculation of the dollar index, the euro itself exists as a parameter, and it is the highest proportion of 62%. The two are almost the relationship between the numerator and the denominator, so the euro and the dollar are absolutely opposite trends.

This absolute opposite is not only an absolute opposite in direction, but also an almost absolute match in magnitude.

I would also like to say that in the market, there are only the US dollar and the euro, which are absolutely opposite trends, and the relationship is always opposite. In addition to this pair, even gold and silver, I believe everyone has seen the divergence of the two trends.

I hope that you will no longer retain the impression flow on these varieties of gold and crude oil, and do not think that these varieties must always be the opposite of the dollar. Once they are not the opposite, they will be confused. There is nothing to be confused about.