Ausforex August 14 financial breakfast: focus on the Fed meeting notes, pay attention to the New Zealand Fed interest rate decision

On August 14, this week, focusing on the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting notes, the economic data last week made the Federal Reserve further interest rate hike bets weakened, this week's attention to the meeting notes, while paying attention to the speech of Federal Reserve officials to seek more interest rate direction signals; in addition, paying attention to the New Zealand Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) energy ministers meeting was held.

Beijing time on Monday (August 14), this week focused on the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting notes, last week's economic data made the Federal Reserve further interest rate hike bets weakened, this week's attention to the meeting notes at the same time, pay attention to the speech of Federal Reserve officials to seek more interest rate direction signals; in addition, pay attention to the New Zealand Federal Reserve interest rate decision, APEC energy ministers meeting held.Market News

Since the beginning of this year, the international energy shortage, our country's lithium battery exports ushered in explosive growth

Since the beginning of this year, international energy is in short supply, electricity prices have risen, and the market demand for energy storage products has increased greatly. The export of lithium batteries in our country has ushered in explosive growth. According to Fuzhou Customs, in the first half of this year, Fujian Province's exports of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar (000591) battery "new three" products performed strongly. Among them, the export of lithium batteries was the most eye-catching, with a year-on-year increase of 110.7%. The export of lithium batteries in Fujian Province covers 112 countries and regions around the world, achieving double-digit growth in the European Union, ASEAN and other regions. In Ningde, Fujian Province, the export of lithium batteries reached 33.43 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 58.6% of the total export value of congeneric products in Fujian Province CATL (300750), the world's largest lithium battery producer, said its overseas market revenue nearly tripled in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year.

China Internet of Things: Cold chain logistics continued to stabilize and rebound in the first half of this year

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (13th) announced the operation data of cold chain logistics in the first half of this year. The data shows that the industrial environment, market demand and enterprise competitiveness of cold chain logistics in our country continued to stabilize and rebound in the first half of this year, and the positive factors supporting the development of the industry continued to increase. According to statistics, in the first half of this year, the total amount of cold chain logistics in our country was 3.10 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year; the size of the cold chain logistics market was 268.80 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year. The total demand for cold chain logistics in our country was 210 million tons, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year, maintaining stable growth. Under the condition that the circulation rate of various categories of cold chain in our country gradually increased, the volume of

Brazil's energy minister: 'absolutely certain' there will be no fuel shortages

Brazilian Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira said on Friday it was "absolutely certain" that Latin America's largest economy was not facing any fuel shortages, despite supply disruptions reported by some gas station groups. Silveira also said Petrobras was free to set fuel prices. In May, the state-owned oil company approved a policy to lower diesel and gasoline prices, abandoning a more market-based policy in favor of greater flexibility to smooth volatile international prices. Market representatives said the move discouraged third-party imports.

White House: Ukraine conflict could continue until 2024

John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, said the United States believes the conflict in Ukraine will continue until 2024. He believes it is reasonable to ask the U.S. Congress for $13 billion in aid for Kiev because the conflict is "very likely" to continue next year. Kirby said the White House believes the amount of aid is appropriate given the current situation in Ukraine and the high likelihood that the war will continue into Quarter 1 and the fall of next year.

European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service Deputy Director: El Niño phenomenon has appeared, the world may be hotter next year

At present, the southern hemisphere is in winter, but there are abnormal hot weather. This winter, the temperature in Chile hit a record high. Why is this phenomenon happening? To this end, the reporter of the headquarters interviewed Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. Burgess said in the interview that the El Niño phenomenon this year will further exacerbate the global temperature rise.

Summer passenger flow continues to grow, and the passenger throughput of Capital Airport exceeds 30 million

The peak of summer travel continued, and the traffic counting of the Capital Airport rose sharply. In August, the average daily passenger throughput of the Capital Airport reached 169,000, and the international and regional passenger throughput exceeded 30,000. Among them, on August 6, the single-day passenger throughput of the Capital Airport exceeded 200,000, setting a new high since February 2020. As of August 11, 2023, the Capital Airport has guaranteed 220,000 flights, and the passenger throughput exceeded 30 million, of which the international and regional passenger throughput exceeded 3.50 million.

Precious metal

Gold prices hovered near a one-month low on Friday and were set to fall for a third straight week, as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields climbed after data showed U.S. producer prices rose in July.Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco, said: "The producer price index (PPI) was slightly higher than expected, which pushed Treasury yields higher and slightly boosted the dollar index. So it put a little pressure on the gold market."

The US final demand PPI rose 0.3 per cent in July, the labour department said, after rising 0.8 per cent in the 12 months to July. Economists interviewed by Reuters had expected the PPI to rise 0.2 per cent month-on-month and 0.7 per cent year-on-year.

The dollar index rose 0.3 percent, marking its fourth consecutive week of gains, and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also rose for the fourth consecutive week.

Spot silver fell 0.1 per cent to $22.66 a troy ounce, while platinum rose 0.4 per cent to $910.06, putting the two on track for a fourth straight week of declines.

crude oil

Oil prices rose on Friday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast record global demand and tighter supply, pushing prices higher for a seventh straight week, the longest weekly streak since 2022.The IEA estimates that global oil demand hit a record 103 million barrels per day in June and could hit a new high this month. Meanwhile, production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia are set to lead to a sharp drop in inventories for the rest of 2023, which the IEA said could push prices higher.

On Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it expects global oil demand to increase by 2.44 million barrels per day this year, unchanged from previous forecasts. OPEC said the outlook for the oil market in the second half is healthy.

Last week's U.S. economic data also boosted market sentiment, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve is about to end its aggressive rate hikes.

OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said supply cuts and an improving economic outlook were making oil investors more optimistic. However, he noted signs that momentum was waning after a sustained rally. Brent crude hit its highest since January on Thursday and US crude hit its highest level of the year on Wednesday. The last time Brent rose for seven straight weeks was in January-February 2022, before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Energy services firm Baker Hughes said the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. stabilized at 525 this week after eight consecutive weeks of decline, an early indicator of future production.

foreign exchange

The dollar rallied on Friday after U.S. producer price growth widened slightly in July, sending Treasury yields higher despite heightened speculation that the Federal Reserve was about to end its rate hikes.Service costs rebounded at their fastest pace in nearly a year, pushing producer prices higher, unnerving traders who also saw the yen fall below the Y145-to-dollar threshold that triggered Japan's intervention in September 2022.

The Labor Department said the final demand producer price index (PPI) rose 0.3 percent, and the June data was revised down to show no change in PPI, rather than the 0.1 percent increase previously reported.

PPI rose 0.8 per cent in the 12 months to July, compared with 0.2 per cent the previous month, and is expected to grow 0.2 per cent month-on-month and 0.7 per cent year-on-year, according to a survey of economists.

Macquarie Global FX and currency strategist Thierry Wizman said the 0.5% increase in the services PPI was the largest increase since August last year because it included the volatile portion of retailers' and wholesalers' profits.

Wizman said the market was also concerned that rising energy costs would push up the consumer price index (CPI), but that concern was misplaced because the energy PPI was flat month-on-month for the month.

"Everyone is now worried that headline CPI will stay high because of energy prices, [but] if final demand PPI rises by 0.8 per cent, you wouldn't really be overly concerned about that, would you?"

Consumer inflation rose 0.2 percent last month, unchanged from June, and rose 3.2 percent in the 12 months to July, according to CPI data released Thursday.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six currencies, rose 0.21 percent and is on track for a fourth straight week of gains; it has rallied about 2.9 percent since rebounding from a 15-month low in mid-July on signs of resilience in the U.S. labor market.

Data since then suggest the pace of inflation is slowing, raising bets that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates further. But yields rose after the Treasury raised its third-quarter borrowing forecast.

Marvin Loh, senior global macro strategist at State Street Securities, said the inflation data was encouraging, but to achieve the Federal Reserve's sustainable inflation target of 2 percent, the labor market would need to be less robust.

"The Fed's job is not done until the CPI data stabilizes around 2 percent and the labor market reaches equilibrium," Mr. Loh said, during which the dollar is "likely to be range-bound."

Futures traders now see an 88.5% chance that the Fed will maintain its benchmark interest rate at its current range of 5.25-5% when policymakers meet in September. Before the inflation data was released, that probability was already more than 85%.

The strengthening dollar sent the yen briefly touching 145.03 in afternoon trading, its highest since June 30. The dollar was trading late at 144.95 yen, up 0.15 per cent on the day.

Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore, said: "Once the yen hits 145, you can expect some [intervention] talk and I think the market will become more cautious when we get to that level."

When the dollar rose above Y145 in September last year, Japan intervened in the currency market, prompting the Ministry of Finance to buy yen and push the pair back around Y140. The yen has fallen more than 10% against the dollar this year.

Meanwhile, the pound rallied for the first time in four days after data showed that Britain's economy grew more than expected in June, easing some concerns about the impact of high inflation and high interest rates on economic activity. The pound closed late at $1.2694, up 0.15% on the day, but is still set for its fourth consecutive weekly decline. On Friday, the euro fell 0.3% to $1.0946, while the dollar fell 0.06% against the Swiss franc.