Australia Exchange data shows that it is not easy for the pound to rise! The UK economy grew faster than expected in June, which may not attract too much attention from the Bank of England

The UK economy grew faster than expected in June, reaching 0.5%, helping to boost the economy's growth rate to 0.2% in the second quarter.But analysts are divided on the impact of the data on the coming months。

The strong performance of the production sector, including manufacturing, and warmer weather, which drew some people to bars and restaurants, boosted economic growth in June. The figure was also inflated compared with May, when there was an extra bank holiday to celebrate the king's coronation.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:The figures "could be the start of a sustainable recovery for the UK economy"He pointed out that despite the impact of soaring inflation, household consumption rose by 0.7% in the second quarter.He believes that...As the cost of living pressure eases, households will be able to advance economic expansion in the future。Data expected next week will show that wage growth has outpaced inflation"Looking ahead, we expect households' real incomes to continue to grow further as prices continue to rise more slowly than wages," he said

In contrast, Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, saidNot so optimisticShe believes the return to normal working days after the king's coronation may be the main reason for the growth, which has made the economy "look stronger than it really is."

She warned that the full impact of the rate rise had not yet been transmitted to the economy. Some of the most rate-sensitive sectors were weak, such as the real estate sector, which fell for a third month in a row. "We still believe that,With most of the drag from rate hikes still to come, GDP will decline in the third quarter and a mild recession will begin。”

Making matters worse, Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, warns that,Corporate investment trends could be an "early indicator of future difficulties"。

While business investment rose 3.4% in the second quarter, it was driven by U.S. aircraft imports in April. Investment in Information Communication Technology (ICT) and machinery elsewhere fell after the government's Super Deduction Allowance program, which lowered the tax rate on business investment. Some experts believe that,The strong momentum in business investment in the second quarter is "unlikely to continue"。

Although analysts are divided on whether the data points to a positive trend,Most believe they are unlikely to attract much attention from the BoE.

Inflation of 7.9 per cent remains well above the Bank of England's 2 per cent target, despite a sharper-than-expected fall in June. The fact that the economy grew in the second quarter despite aggressive monetary tightening will only strengthen the central bank's confidence as it prepares to raise rates again in September.

As the market digests further rate hikes, the full impact of previous rate hikes has yet to be felt.In the foreseeable future, economic growth is likely to remain subdued。

A recent report by the UK's National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) warned that UK output would not exceed pre-epidemic levels until the end of 2024, and the think tank highlighted the loss of five years of economic growth.

Jagjit Chadha, director of the institute, described the UK's challenges, including high inflation, as a "return of the'British disease '".GBP/USD daily chart

At 13:50 on August 14, Beijing time, the pound was trading at 2682/9