Foreign Exchange School

  Japan's government may intervene again in the foreign exchange market if the dollar/yen breaks through 150, a former top foreign exchange official, known as "Mr. Yen" because of its past influence on the yen, said on Thursday. Eisuke Sakakibara, a former top foreign exchange official, said on Thursday (September 28) that the Japanese government may intervene again in the foreign exchange market if the dollar/yen breaks through 150. Sakahara Hideko...

  The dollar rallied against all other major currencies on Tuesday (September 27) and continued to strengthen today, with the dollar index hitting a 10-month high. Pissouros believes the Federal Reserve's "keep rates higher for longer" thinking is still powering the dollar, while also pushing up Treasury yields. The 10-year base rate surged to 16 on Tuesday as data showed the economy was more resilient and therefore could withstand more rate hikes.

  Michael Lebowitz, who specializes in macroeconomic research, valuation, asset allocation and risk management, recently wrote that the Federal Reserve's "long-term higher" interest rate actions could trigger a financial crisis. As shown below, every time federal funds suddenly rise, there is a crisis, Lebowitz said. Look closely and you will see that most of these situations happen after interest rate hikes and are quickly influenced by US...

  Sept. 27 - Emerging market stocks fell to their lowest level since March as the dollar strengthened and U.S. consumer confidence waned, dampening investor enthusiasm for risk assets. Emerging market stocks fell to their lowest level since March as the dollar strengthened and U.S. consumer confidence waned, dampening investor enthusiasm for risk assets. Expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay higher for longer, and possibly even rise, have weighed on the past two weeks...

  Sept. 27 - Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari sees a near 50 percent chance that interest rates will need to rise sharply to keep inflation down. In an article published Tuesday, the central banker said the United States could move toward a "high-pressure equilibrium" in which inflation remains high and interest rates need to be "possibly meaningfully higher." Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari sees a near...

  September 26 - Federal Reserve hawk Neel Kashkari said that there will be another interest rate hike this year. The Federal Reserve last week expected the policy rate to be at least 5.1% by the end of 2024, but interest rate futures contracts reflected a drop to 4.65%. British media analysis said that traders began to question Chairperson Powell's statement. Federal Reserve hawk Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday (September 26) that there will be another interest rate hike this year. He...

  Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, has reiterated that borrowing costs will remain high for as long as necessary, even in a troubled economy, to keep consumer prices in check. "Our future decisions will ensure that the ECB's key interest rate remains at a sufficiently stringent level if necessary," Lagarde said on Monday. Monetary easing is unlikely in the short term. Lagarde echoed earlier comments by saying that the prospect of a rate cut is not even under consideration at this time. She did not specify which...

  CICC released a research report saying that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is coming to an end, but officials have hinted that interest rates may be higher for longer. So, how long is longer? When will the Federal Reserve turn to interest rate cuts? The bank believes that in the benchmark scenario of a resilient US economy and slowing inflation, the first Fed interest rate cut may occur in September 2024, and the cumulative rate cut next year may be around 50 bp. If there are major financial risks before that, the...

  Policymakers around the world are likely to breathe a sigh of relief this week as a key underlying measure of consumer price growth slows. In the US, the PCE, the annual core measure that excludes food and energy from the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, is likely to fall below 4 per cent in August for the first time in almost two years. Meanwhile, the eurozone's own measure of annual underlying price growth is expected to slow to 4.8 per cent in September, a 12-month low. US...

  Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst of the well-known financial website FXStreet, wrote on Friday (September 22) that this week the Federal Reserve took the hawks to suspend interest rate hikes, and the dollar reasserted its dominance. The decline of the euro/dollar is not over yet, and it may fall below the 1.0600 mark in the short term. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.27% last week to close at 105.62. The dollar index has been ten consecutive...

  CICC released a research report saying that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is coming to an end, but officials have hinted that interest rates may be higher for longer. So, how long is longer? When will the Federal Reserve turn to interest rate cuts? The bank believes that in the benchmark scenario of a resilient US economy and slowing inflation, the first Fed interest rate cut may occur in September 2024, and the cumulative rate cut next year may be around 50 bp. If there are major financial risks before that, the...

  In early Asian trading, the dollar/yen rose nearly 50 points to 148.16, and then fell slightly to 148.06. The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the -0.1% interest rate unchanged, the board of directors decided unanimously, and the yield curve control (YCC) policy was stable. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki verbally intervened as usual, saying that he would pay close attention to foreign exchange trends. The Bank of Japan statement mentioned: "The 10-year Japanese...

  Sept. 22 - The dollar's recent rally has put it on track to form a gold cross, a technical trading chart pattern that is short-term bullish on the currency, according to Bank of America Global Research released on Wednesday. The dollar's recent rally has put it on track to form a gold cross, a technical trading chart pattern that is short-term bullish on the currency, according to Bank of America Global Research released on Wednesday. A gold cross is when a short-term moving average crosses a long-term moving...

  Sept. 22 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Henry Summers says Federal Reserve policymakers are overly optimistic about its latest economic forecasts, warning the central bank that it risks being taken aback by faster inflation and lower growth. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Henry Summers says Fed policymakers are overly optimistic about its latest economic forecasts, warning the central bank that it risks being taken aback by faster inflation and lower growth.

  At 2:00 am Beijing time on September 21, the Federal Reserve announced as scheduled to maintain interest rates at the target range of 5.25% -5.5%. The bank also said that it still expects to raise interest rates again before the end of the year, and the number of interest rate cuts next year will be less than previously expected. According to the forecast released by the central bank at the end of the two-day meeting, if the last interest rate hike is achieved, the current round of interest rate hike cycle will end. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, then it will start tightening policy in March 2022 to...