This week's non-agricultural data hit, many investors and analysts are bullish on the gold market outlook

Daocheng Technology Finance: Monday (April 29) Asian morning trading,Spot goldIt is currently trading at $2336.04/ounce.Gold priceLast Friday's rebound was blocked, closing at $2337.36 an ounce, after data showed that U.S. prices rose in line with expectations; as the Middle East crisis avoided a major escalation, some geopolitical risk premiums fell, gold prices still fell more than 2% weekly, the worst weekly performance since December.

(Weekly chart of spot gold)

The U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in March, in line with expectations, which is unlikely to change expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates until September.

After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields fell, making gold more attractive. But the dollar index rallied nearly 0.5%, recovering all of its losses earlier in the week.

Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, said the data continued to suggest "stubborn inflation is likely to persist, but gold's reaction suggests the market has priced that in".

Gold's movement "depends on overall risk asset sentiment and buying from the Far East". Wong believes gold will consolidate between $2,300 and $2,400 in the short term.

The market initially expected the first U.S. interest rate cut to be in March, but as the U.S. continued to release strong economic data, expectations were first postponed to June and now to September.

Phillip Streerial, head of market strategy at Daocheng Technology, said he remained bullish on gold as the US economy appeared to be entering a period of stagflation. However, he added that investors would have to keep a close eye on next week's data, including government jobs data for April.

Stredible added that the disappointing non-farm payrolls report, which showed weak job growth and rising wages, would paint a clearer picture of stagflation, which could push gold prices away from the current consolidation.

This week's preview

This Wednesday (May 1) will usher in the US April ISM manufacturing PMI and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.

The market expects the Federal Reserve to leave its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% -5.5%. The Fed is unlikely to provide any new hints on the timing of the policy shift in its statement. However, at the press conference after the meeting, it is very likely that Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell will be asked if there is still the possibility of a rate cut in June. If Powell does not close the door on a June rate cut, the initial reaction could trigger a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields and boost gold.

Following the March policy meeting, Mr. Powell noted that the strong inflation figures for January and February were likely due to seasonal factors, and his comments on the inflation outlook will also be closely watched by market participants.

If Powell takes a worrisome tone about recent inflation developments, the dollar could remain resilient against its rivals, limiting gold's upside. Finally, if Powell downplays the disappointing Quarter 1 GDP data, investors may view it as hawkish, making it difficult for gold to gain upward momentum.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release April this Friday (May 3)non-farm employmentReport and April ISM non-manufacturing PMI. The market expects job creation to fall from 300,000 to 210,000.

Ten Wall Street analysts participated in the survey last week, and their views were largely in line with those of the previous week. Seven experts (70%) expect gold prices to climb in the coming week, while two analysts (20%) expect gold to continue trading sideways, and again, only one analyst (10%) predicts prices will fall.

Meanwhile, with 155 votes cast in an online poll of retail investors, 74 retailers (48%) expect gold prices to rise in the coming week. Another 46, or 30%, predict prices will fall, while 35, or 22%, expect the precious metal to be volatile in the coming week.

Marc Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global FX, believes, "Gold in the spot gold market is supported by $2,300, and it could test $2,370 in the coming days. I suspect the real test is the U.S. jobs data for April. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting is first, but hawkish support is widely expected. Service PMI and Small Business Survey warn of downside risks to the economy."

Chandler said: "A disappointing jobs report could weaken the dollar and lower interest rates, which could drive up the price of gold."

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, also expects gold trading to rise in the coming week. "Purchases are rising all over the world," he said. "Central banks are still net buyers of gold by a similar size, if there is a slowdown so far this year compared to the past two years."

At 07:48 Beijing time, spot gold was quoted at 2335.75 US dollars per ounce.