Gold under pressure in 2030, market concerns Powell turns hawkish

On Tuesday (April 30), during Asian time,Spot goldThe price of gold barely held the 2330 mark on Monday, helped by the weakness of the dollar, but still under pressure below the 21-day moving average of 2340, the market focus shiftedFederal Reserve policyThe conference and the United States will be announced this weekNon-farm employment dataTo find clues to the trajectory of the Federal Reserve interest rate.

(Daily chart of spot gold)

Higher-than-expected consumer inflation data for March, released earlier this month, prompted traders to lower expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve amid concerns about hawkish signals from the Fed chairperson, putting gold prices at some downside risk in the short term.

"Gold market participants are largely waiting for Friday's non-farm payrolls report," said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. "The view that the Fed should not be in a hurry to cut rates given signs of sustained higher inflation and resilient growth is well priced in by the market."

The Fed is expected to leave its target range for benchmark interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5 per cent at the end of Wednesday's two-day policy meeting, which begins on April 30, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The market is also closely monitoring the US non-farm payrolls data for clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.

Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities, said: "The market has underestimated the likelihood of a'no rush 'rate cut, and we see a low probability that the Fed's next move will translate into a rate hike, indicating that the range of expectations for Fed funds to weigh on the gold market has narrowed.

In his last speech, Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell said policymakers were likely to keep borrowing costs high for longer than previously expected, noting a lack of progress on reducing inflation and continued strength in the labor market.

"Inflation isn't exactly what they want, but it's gotten to the point where if the labour market shakes a little, the Fed will quickly turn to dovish rhetoric," said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky.

According to CME FedWATCH, the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in September is 42%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points, 50 basis points and 75 basis points is 44.7%, 12.3% and 1.1% respectively; the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in November is 32%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points, 50 basis points and 75 basis points is 44%, 19.9% and 3.8% respectively.

Investors also need to keep an eye on news related to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

Israeli airstrikes killed at least 25 Palestinians and wounded many more on Monday as Hamas leaders arrived in Cairo for a new round of talks with Egyptian and Qatari mediators.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said Egypt was hopeful but still waiting for a response from Israel and Hamas.

This trading day, there is less economic data in the United States, so pay attention to the performance of the Eurozone's CPI data in April and GDP data in the first quarter.

At 07:36 Beijing time, spot gold was quoted at 2334.01 US dollars per ounce.