Decode foreign exchange official website: gold prices hit a record high, trade concerns intensified to promote safe-haven demand

The price of gold (XAU/USD) rose in a row for the second day, breaking through an all-time high and trading at $3,085. In the upcoming European trading session, market sentiment was affected by the auto tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday.

The move has raised concerns about possible retaliatory tariffs next week.Decode Forex official websiteThe market is full of uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy, which has driven funds towards safe-haven assets.

In addition to these factors, the expected impact of Trump's tough trade policy on US economic growth and forcing the Federal Reserve to resume a rate-cutting cycle in the near future has also provided additional support for gold prices. This factor has largely offset a modest rebound in the dollar, which typically weakens demand for dollar-denominated goods.

However, bulls in the gold market are likely to pause while they wait for the upcoming release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, as the data could affect the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and further affect the direction of gold.

Trump's announcement on Wednesday of 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks, expected to take effect on April 3, has further escalated global trade concerns and cooled investor appetite for risky assets.

According to market surveys, Trump's trade policies have exacerbated global economic uncertainty, leading to a general weakness in the stock market and driving gold prices to record highs.

At the same time, the market has begun to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again at its June policy meeting in response to a tariff-induced slowdown in the US economy. Strong US data, including annual GDP growth of 2.4 per cent in the fourth quarter, up from a previous forecast of 2.3 per cent, did not effectively support the dollar and instead added to gold's rally.

Despite the fact that jobless claims fell to 224,000, according to the US labour department, suggesting the labour market remains strong, expectations for Fed policy have not changed and some Fed officials have expressed concern about the impact of trade policy.

Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, said the current moderately restrictive monetary policy was appropriate to deal with the speed and uncertainty of policy changes in the US government.

Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed, warned that the Trump administration's trade policies would push up US inflation, but was unsure how long the pressure would last.

The focus of market attention remains on the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation indicator and may affect the future direction of monetary policy. Investors will analyze this data carefully to determine whether the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates and how these policies will affect the price of the dollar and gold.

From a technical perspective, this week's strong performance near the psychological $3,000 level and its subsequent rise suggest that the upward trend in gold prices remains solid. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has shown overbought signals, which means caution is needed in the short term.

Any pullback could attract buying support around $3,050-3,048, which should limit the price of gold to the $3,036-3,035 area. If the price of gold falls below this level, it could trigger technical selling, causing the price to decline to $3,020-3,019 or even fall back to the $3,000 mark.

This price level will serve as a key support for short-term traders, and if effectively broken, it could lead to a larger correction in the price of gold.

Editorial opinion:

The continued rise in gold prices is closely related to trade concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In the current context of heightened global economic uncertainty, gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset has become increasingly apparent.

Investors should keep an eye on the upcoming PCE data to better grasp the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Technically, despite the risk of short-term overbuying in gold prices, strong support levels still provide support for bulls. Gold prices may experience a correction in the coming period, but the overall trend remains bullish.