Trump once again succeeded in "cutting leeks", the United States and Europe reached an "unequal treaty", and the European Union was forced to sign a sky-high bill

On Sunday (July 27) local time, a trade tug-of-war that lasted for months finally came to an end. The "one-hour secret meeting" between US President Donald Trump and European Union Commission President Von der Leyen at the Scottish golf course seemed to avoid a full-blown outbreak of the transatlantic trade war, and reshaped the rules of the game for one-third of the world's trade volume. What are the unknown struggles behind this negotiation? What mysteries are hidden in the 15% tariff figure? Let's lift the veil of this agreement.

First, the core content of the agreement: not just 15%

Tariff rates are the main focus

After a fierce game, the two sides finally locked in tariffs of 15% on most European Union imports to the United States, which is half of the 30% "punitive tariff" that Trump had previously threatened. It is worth noting that this figure is similar to the agreement reached between the United States and Japan last week, showing the "standard template" strategy of the Trump administration. But looking closely at the terms, three key areas of automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors were specifically named into the tax range, reflecting the US's intention to protect high-tech and people's livelihood areas.

"Exception Clauses" for Steel and Aluminum

At the negotiating table, the United States insisted on retaining the existing 50% tariffs on European Union steel and aluminum products, which became the most controversial part of the agreement. Although Von der Leyen revealed that the high tariffs may be replaced by a quota system in the future, Trump's on-the-spot emphasis on "maintaining the status quo" exposed the fundamental differences between the two sides on this issue. Analysts pointed out that this actually reserved an umbrella company for the domestic steel industry in the United States.

600 billion Implications of Investing in Dollars

The European Union's commitment to invest in the United States is the largest in history. This huge amount of money equivalent to 3% of the European Union's GDP will mainly flow to infrastructure and manufacturing. More interesting is that the agreement specifically emphasizes that the European Union will significantly increase its purchases of US liquefied natural gas and military equipment. The former directly targets Europe's dependence on Russian energy, and the latter may reshape the NATO arms procurement pattern. Trump's excited claims of "$750 billion in energy purchases" and "hundreds of billions of arms orders" are in fact political transactions that exchange markets for tariffs.

Second, swords and shadows at the negotiating table: from golf courses to the global economy

A last-minute dramatic twist

The fact that the talks are taking place on Mr. Trump's private golf course is itself full of symbolism. According to people familiar with the talks, which were originally scheduled for 30 minutes, extended to an hour, during which the two sides nearly broke down on the issue of drug tariffs. Von der Leyen's helpless statement at the press conference that "this is the best we can get" contrasted with Trump's euphoria for "the greatest deal in history" and exposed the European Union's negotiating disadvantage.

The secret struggle between Germany and France

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's swift endorsement of the deal reflects the industry's deep fear of a 30 per cent tariff on cars - VW, BMW and others are currently subject to a 27.5 per cent tariff. The French side is strongly dissatisfied with the inclusion of the pharmaceutical industry in the 15 per cent tariff, and drug companies such as Novartis and Sanofi may lose their price advantage. This internal conflict has left the European Union negotiating team with enemies.

The unspoken subtext

The agreement deliberately obscured sensitive topics such as the spirits tariff, leaving room for subsequent negotiations. More subtly, the two sides avoided talking about technical details such as "whether semiconductor tariffs cover chip design software". These silent areas could become the fuse of future friction. As analysts say: "This is more like a political declaration than a serious trade agreement."

The shock wave is spreading: who laughs and who cries?

Immediate reaction of capital markets

After the agreement was announced, the euro rose 0.2% against major currencies, indicating that European stocks, especially the auto sector, may usher in a rebound on Monday. But analysts warned that this optimism may be short-lived - inflationary pressures from rising prices of US imports may force the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, which will hit global capital markets. Spot also felt that it opened about $15 to $3,320.83 an ounce in early trading on Monday (July 28), but it quickly recovered most of the losses and is currently trading around $3,332 an ounce; futures of the three major US stock indexes rose nearly 0.5% at the opening on Monday.

The undercurrent of restructuring in the industrial chain

It is worth noting that the UK has gained an unexpected advantage as a result of Brexit - its exports to the US are not subject to a 15% tariff. This could lead some European companies to accelerate the transfer of production capacity to the UK. Meanwhile, while companies such as Airbus avoid the worst, the 15% tariff still puts them at a disadvantage compared to Boeing.

Who will be the next target?

Trump has said that he is negotiating with "three or four countries", Canada and Mexico may be the first to bear the brunt. Observers have noticed that the US has deliberately retained a comparative expression of the Japan 550 billion dollar agreement in the agreement. This "level by level bidding" negotiation strategy may become the new normal for US trade.

Conclusion: A truce without a winner?

On the surface, the deal averted the worst of the trade war, but on closer inspection, the 15% tariff is still far higher than the zero tariff the European Union had hoped for. Lange, the head of the European Parliament's trade committee, may have told part of the truth in his sharp criticism of "political theatre at the expense of European interests". As Trump hails the victory of "America First", the European Union may only get a breather. As the details of the agreement are gradually revealed in the coming weeks, the sequel to the transatlantic trade game may only just begin.