July 28 financial breakfast: Europe and the United States reached a trade agreement, the price of gold once touched the $3,320/ounce mark, alert to the escalation of the Houthi armed forces at sea blockade to increase geopolitical tensions

On Monday (July 28, Beijing time), spot gold traded near $3,335.78/ounce, the United States and the European Union reached a trade agreement, and the gold price once touched the $3,320/ounce mark. Under the optimistic expectations of trade, the market waited for more positive news on trade; U.S. crude oil traded near $65.18/barrel, trade optimism limited the decline in oil prices, and the Houthis escalated their naval blockade, which will attack all ships of companies cooperating with Israel, or exacerbate geopolitical tensions to support oil prices in the day.

Focus on the day

stock market

United States

stock market

The S & P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Friday, helped by optimism that the U.S. could soon reach a trade deal with the European Union.

Von der Leyen, head of the European Union's executive commission, met US President Donald Trump in Scotland on Sunday after European Union officials and diplomats said they expected to reach a framework trade deal over the weekend. Mr. Trump had previously said there was a "50 per cent" chance of a trade deal with the European Union.

Intel fell 8.5% after the chipmaker forecast a larger-than-expected quarterly loss and announced plans to cut jobs.

In recent weeks, Wall Street has been reeling from upbeat corporate results, U.S. trade deals with Japan and the Philippines, and market expectations of more deals to avoid steep tariffs

stock market

Repeatedly hit new highs.

Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT, said: "The market has been expecting these deals to happen, and I'm personally sceptical. You have to be careful because if a deal doesn't happen, there will be more disappointment than upside."

The S & P 500 gained 0.40% on Friday to close at 6,388.64. The Nasdaq gained 0.24% to close at 21,108.32. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.47% to close at 44,901.92. Nine of the 11 sectors in the S & P 500 gained, with the materials sector leading the way with a 1.17% gain, followed by the industrials sector with a 0.98% gain. Last week, the S & P 500 gained 1.5%, the Nasdaq gained 1% and the Dow gained 1.3%.

The S & P 500 hit record highs every day last week, and Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S & P Dow Jones Indices, said the last time the index had a "perfect week" of consecutive Monday-Friday closing highs was in November 2021.

This week, investors will focus on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to leave interest rates unchanged after the meeting as it weighs the impact of tariffs on inflation.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch tool, traders see a 60% chance of a rate cut in September.

Mr. Trump, who earlier called Mr. Powell a "fool" for failing to cut rates, said on Friday that he believed Federal Reserve chairperson Jerome Powell might be ready to cut rates.

Paramount Global fell 1.6 percent after U.S. regulators approved its $8.40 billion merger deal with Skydance Media.

Data from I/B/E/S of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) show that the second-quarter earnings of S & P 500 companies are expected to increase by an average of 7.7% from the same period last year, with heavyweight technology-related companies making the largest contribution. Companies due to report results this week include Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta Platforms.

Jin Shi

Gold prices fell on Friday as a stronger dollar and signs of progress in US-EU trade talks hit safe haven demand. Spot gold fell 0.9 per cent to $3,336.01 an ounce. US gold futures fell 1.1 per cent to settle at $3,335.60. The dollar index rebounded from its lowest level in more than two weeks, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

Peter Grant, vice-president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, said: "The deal with Japan is significant, and the US and Europe are on track to reach an agreement by the August 1 deadline. This has weakened haven demand, and rising risk appetite has driven capital flows into risk assets."

On July 27 local time, US President Trump said that the United States has reached a tariff agreement with the European Union at a 15% rate. Trump said that the European Union will increase its investment in the United States by 600 billion dollars than before, and the European Union will buy US military equipment and buy US energy products for 150 billion dollars. European Union Commission President Von der Leyen said that the European Union and the United States have agreed to implement a unified 15% tariff rate, which will be applied to various goods including automobiles. Von der Leyen said that these trade agreements with the United States will bring stability to the market.

While U.S. President Donald Trump's import tariffs have led to signs of a pick-up in inflation, stable labor market data is expected to support the Federal Reserve in keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.25% -4.50% at next week's meeting.

Mr. Trump made a surprise visit to the Federal Reserve, renewing pressure on chairperson Jerome Powell to push for a sharp rate cut. Mr. Grant said gold could "attract some interest at $3,300, but it may not hit a record high until the Fed makes a decision" and said the meeting could signal a rate cut later this year.

Spot silver fell 2.3 per cent to $38.20 an ounce but was still set to rise weekly. Platinum fell 0.9 per cent to $1,395.31 and palladium fell 0.7 per cent to $1,219.07, both down weekly.

oil market

Oil prices closed lower on Friday, with benchmark crude settling at a three-week low as traders worried about negative economic news from the United States and signs of increased supply. However, optimism that a U.S. trade deal could boost global economic growth and oil demand in the future limited the decline in oil prices.

Brent crude oil futures fell 1.1% to settle at $68.44 a barrel, while U.S. crude oil futures fell 1.3% to settle at $65.16. This is the lowest settlement price for Brent crude oil since July 4 and the lowest settlement price for U.S. crude oil since June 30. Last week, Brent crude oil fell about 1% and U.S. crude oil fell about 3%.

On July 27 local time, US President Trump said that the United States has reached a tariff agreement with the European Union at a 15% rate. Trump said that the European Union will increase its investment in the United States by 600 billion dollars than before, and the European Union will buy US military equipment and buy US energy products for 150 billion dollars. European Union Commission President Von der Leyen said that the European Union and the United States have agreed to implement a unified 15% tariff rate, which will be applied to various goods including automobiles. Von der Leyen said that these trade agreements with the United States will bring stability to the market.

A flurry of data on Friday showed the eurozone economy remained resilient amid widespread uncertainty caused by the global trade war. Core US capital goods orders unexpectedly fell in June but shipments rose modestly, suggesting a sharp slowdown in corporate spending on equipment in the second quarter.

ING analysts wrote that the U.S. easing of rules could increase Venezuela's oil exports by slightly more than 200,000 bpd, which U.S. refiners have welcomed as a relief for heavy crude oil

oil market

The tight situation in the field.

Four OPEC + delegates said the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is unlikely to change its existing production increase plan when it meets on Monday, noting that the group of producers is eager to regain market share while summer demand is helping to absorb excess oil.

Energy services firm Baker Hughes said U.S. energy companies reduced the number of active oil and gas rigs last week, the 12th decrease in 13 weeks.

currency market

The dollar rallied on Friday, supported by strong economic data suggesting the Federal Reserve may be patient in resuming interest rate cuts, and progress in tariff talks has provided greater clarity on the trade situation, easing market uncertainty.

US core capital goods orders unexpectedly fell in June but shipments rose modestly, data showed, suggesting a sharp slowdown in business spending on equipment in the second quarter. The dollar responded muted to the data.

Elias Haddad, senior market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London, said: "The dollar has rallied after being on the defensive earlier, supported by a series of encouraging US economic data that suggest the Fed should continue to be patient."

Ahead of more tariff talks and central bank meetings this week, the dollar recorded its biggest weekly decline in a month last week, while sterling fell after weaker-than-expected data on UK retail sales.

The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their policy meetings this week, but traders will be watching post-meeting comments to gauge the timing of their next move.

"We believe there is some room for optimism at the [Fed] meeting," BNP Paribas wrote in a research note. "Economic uncertainty related to trade policy, while not fully resolved, has declined significantly." Politics is one factor affecting the two central banks, particularly in the US, where President Donald Trump clashed with Fed chairperson Jerome Powell on Thursday, renewing his demand for lower interest rates.

Mr. Haddad said the impact of Fed monetary policy on markets was "overshadowed by political pressure to cut rates. That's one of the reasons I think the dollar has limited upside."

However, the dollar rallied slightly against the euro late on Thursday after Trump said he did not plan to fire Powell (despite his repeated hints that he might do so).

Derek Halpenny, head of EMEA research at MUFG, said: "The market is relieved that Trump has not asked Powell to step down, even though this is based on Trump's belief that Powell will'do the right thing '." However, he added that "the theme of Fed independence being undermined by the White House is unlikely to go away and remains a downside risk to the dollar."

The dollar index fell 0.8 per cent last week, its weakest performance in a month, although it rallied 0.2 per cent to 97.663 on Friday. Meanwhile, in Japan, policy action by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition has been complicated by a crushing defeat in upper house elections, although a trade deal with the US could make it easier for the BoJ to continue raising interest rates.

The yen weakened, in part due to lower-than-expected inflation data from Tokyo, and the dollar fell 0.9% against the yen last week.

The euro was flat at $1.1741, but was expected to rise nearly 1 percent on a weekly basis, its best performance in a month. Thursday's European Central Bank meeting provided some support for the euro. Policymakers left policy rates unchanged at 2 percent, as expected, but the ECB's relatively upbeat assessment of the economic outlook and signs of a looming trade deal between the European Union and the United States prompted investors to reassess their previous expectations of another rate cut this year. By contrast, weak UK data supported expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of England and caused eurozone government bond yields to rise faster than UK bond yields, supporting the euro against the pound.

On Friday, the euro rose to £0.8743 against the pound, its highest level since April, having gained 0.44% the day before. Data released on Friday showed that UK retail sales data for June slightly missed analysts' expectations, although it rebounded after a sharp decline in May. Data released on Thursday showed that business activity grew weakly in July, with employers cutting jobs at the fastest pace in five months. Sterling fell 0.6% to $1.3434 against the dollar.

International News

The United States and the European Union reached a 15% tariff agreement

On July 27 local time, US President Trump said that the United States has reached a 15% tariff agreement with the European Union. Trump said that the European Union will increase its investment in the United States by 600 billion dollars than before, and the European Union will buy US military equipment and buy US energy products for 150 billion dollars. European Union Commission President Von der Leyen said that the European Union and the United States have agreed to implement a unified 15% tariff rate, which will be applied to various goods including automobiles. Von der Leyen said that these trade agreements with the United States will bring stability to the market. (CCTV News)

South Korean and US finance ministers and foreign ministers will meet separately this week to discuss tariff issues

According to the news released by the South Korean President's Office on the 26th, Ku Yun-chul, Vice Premier of Economy and Minister of Planning and Finance, will meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant this week to start final negotiations on the South Korean-US tariff issue. Foreign Minister Zhao Xian will also meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week. The Presidential Office held an emergency meeting on economic and trade measures for two consecutive days after the 26th, to check the high-level negotiations between South Korea and the US including the above-mentioned content, and reiterated its efforts to reach an agreement before the US plans to implement "reciprocal tariffs" on South Korea from August 1.

US secretary of state says Trump is "losing patience" with Russia

President Donald Trump's patience for waiting for Russia to take action to end the conflict in Ukraine is wearing thin, US secretary of state Rubio said in an interview broadcast on Fox News on the 26th. "Despite good interactions and conversations with [Russian President] Putin, I think he [Trump] is increasingly frustrated that we have not been able to make real progress," Rubio said. "Now it's time to take action, and I think the president has made that clear. He [Trump] is losing patience and is no longer willing to continue waiting for Russia to take action to end this war." Trump recently said that the United States will provide military assistance to Ukraine through NATO sponsorship, and said that if Russia does not reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within 50 days, the United States will impose "very severe" tariffs on Russia. (Xinhua News Agency)

"Global AI Innovation Index Report" released: The United States and China rank first

At the Science Frontier Plenary Session of the 2025 World artificial intelligence Conference held on the 26th, the "Global artificial intelligence innovation index report 2025" was officially released. The report was jointly prepared by the China Institute of Science and Technology Information and Peking University, and has been released at the World artificial intelligence Conference for five consecutive years. The "Index Report 2025" shows that the United States and China are firmly in the first echelon, with a total score significantly ahead of other countries. In 2024, the United States ranked the highest in the world with a total score of 77.97, and China ranked second with a total score of 58.01. In addition, the overall scale of the second echelon has shrunk, and the shortlisted countries have their own development advantages; most of the third echelon countries belong to Western developed countries and have a good foundation in scientific and technological innovation, but they are at a medium level in artificial intelligence innovation and lack outstanding advantages; The fourth echelon countries generally have shortcomings and their capabilities need to be improved.

Trump's visit to Scotland has sparked protests

Crowds of people took to the streets of Edinburgh and Aberdeen, the Scottish capital, on the 26th to protest the visit of US President Donald Trump. The Scottish police said that Trump's five-day visit will impose "considerable" security costs on the local area. Hundreds of demonstrators gathered outside the US Consulate General in Edinburgh that day, some holding Palestinian flags and pro-Palestinian slogans, and some holding photos of Trump and the late American wealthy businessperson Jeffrey Epstein. (Xinhua News Agency)

Trump talks by phone with Cambodian and Thai leaders

US President Donald Trump said on social media on the 26th that he had spoken by phone with Cambodian Prime Minister Hong Manai and Thai Acting Prime Minister Putan on the same day, saying that the United States would only consider a trade deal with the two countries if the border conflict between the two countries ended. Trump said that the United States has trade relations with Thailand and Cambodia, and if the two countries are in conflict, the United States does not want to make any agreement with the two countries. "When the dust settles and peace is coming, I look forward to making a trade deal with these two countries." Trump also said that the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia agreed to "meet immediately and quickly reach a ceasefire agreement" and hoped to return to the "trade negotiating table" with the United States. The Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs later issued a briefing on social media in response to Trump's call with Putan and his proposal for an immediate ceasefire. The briefing said that Putan confirmed that the Thai side agreed to the ceasefire in principle, and asked the United States to convey to the Cambodian side that the Thai side hopes to hold bilateral talks as soon as possible to jointly determine clear ceasefire measures and procedures, and finally resolve the conflict peacefully. Hong Manai responded on social media that the Cambodian side agreed to "the proposal for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire between the armed forces of the two countries." In fact, he expressed this position in a phone call with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Anwar, the rotating chair of ASEAN, on the 24th. (Xinhua News Agency)

Houthi militants escalate sea blockade, will attack all ships of companies cooperating with Israel

On the evening of the 27th local time, Yahya Sareya, a military spokesperson for the Houthis in Yemen, issued a statement saying that the Houthis will escalate their naval blockade and start the fourth phase of the naval blockade. The Houthis said they will attack all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israeli ports, regardless of location and nationality of the ship. The Houthis warned all shipping companies to stop shipping cooperation with Israel immediately after the statement was issued, otherwise all ships of the relevant companies may be attacked by Houthi missiles or drones no matter where they sail. (CCTV News)

Domestic News

The Chinese government proposes to establish a world artificial intelligence cooperation organization, initially considering headquartered in Shanghai

On July 26, the Chinese government proposed the establishment of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization. This is an important measure for China to adhere to multilateralism and promote joint consultation and shared global governance. It is also a practical action for China to respond to the voice of the global south, help bridge the digital and intelligent divide, and promote the development of artificial intelligence for good and universal benefit. Preliminary consideration is that the organization is headquartered in Shanghai. (Xinhua News Agency)

Profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 1.8% from January to June 2025.

From January to June, industrial enterprises above designated size across the country realized total profits of 3.4365 trillion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year. From January to June, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1.10912 trillion yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2.53304 trillion yuan, down 3.1%; foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises realized total profits of 882.31 billion yuan, up 2.5%; private enterprises realized total profits of 938.97 billion yuan, up 1.7%. From January to June, the mining industry realized total profits of 429.41 billion yuan, down 30.3% year-on-year; the manufacturing industry realized total profits of 2.59006 trillion yuan, up 4.5%; the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries realized total profits of 417.04 billion yuan, up 3.3%. (National Bureau of Statistics)