Jackson Hole conference in focus: Gold prices weakened slightly, silver prices rose

Gold fell slightly and silver strengthened slightly in the US trading session on Thursday (August 23). The focus of the market is on an important central bank meeting in the western United States, which began today (Thursday). Gold futures for December delivery (currently about $50 away from spot gold prices) fell $3.50 to $3,385.00 an ounce in the session; silver futures for September delivery rose $0.302 to $38.075 an ounce in the session.

Stock markets and financial marekts have been relatively calm so far this week as the annual Jackson Hole Fed Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City kicks off in full swing today. Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell is expected to update the Fed's monetary policy framework with a speech on Friday morning. Powell's speech will be the economic focus of the market's attention this week, and its content may provide a new perspective on "the strength of the Federal Reserve's (FOMC) support for whether to cut U.S. interest rates in September."

The latest FOMC meeting notes, released on Wednesday afternoon, showed that at last month's (July) meeting, as divisions within the Fed's rate-setting committee intensified due to trade tariffs, most Fed officials believed that "inflation risks" were more prominent than "US labour market concerns". According to the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting, most of the 18 policymakers who attended the meeting "considered upside inflation risks to be the more important of these two risks". Some FOMC members stressed that US inflation has exceeded 2% for a long time in a row, and if the impact of tariff increases on inflation persists for a long time, it may lead to runaway long-term inflation expectations (ie "de-anchoring").

Swiss gold exports to the US surged last month to their highest level since March, with July shipments approaching 51 tonnes, according to overnight news. In the first quarter of this year, Swiss gold exports hit a record of more than $36 billion, accounting for more than two-thirds of its trade surplus with the US. The Swiss National Bank has argued that large-scale gold exports to the US should not be taken into account when analyzing the economic and trade relationship between the two countries.

Technical analysis: Gold futures (December delivery)

From a technical perspective, the bulls in December gold futures have the advantage in the short-term overall technical side. The next upside goal of the bulls is to push the futures price to close above the key resistance level of $3,500.00/oz; the next short-term downside goal of the bears is to push the futures price below the key technical support level of the July low of $3,319.20/oz.

The first resistance level is $3400.00/ounce, with further resistance at this week's high of $3403.60/ounce.

The first support level: this week's low of $3353.40/ounce, with further support at $3350.00/ounce.

Technical Analysis: Silver Futures (September Delivery)

From a technical perspective, the bulls in September silver futures also have the advantage in the short-term overall technical side. The next upside goal for the bulls is to push futures prices to close above the key technical resistance level at the July high of $39.91/oz; the next downside goal for the bears is to push futures prices below the key support level at the July low of $36.28/oz.

The first resistance level: this week's high of $38.34/ounce, and further resistance at $39.00/ounce.

The first support level is $37.50/ounce, with further support at this week's low of $36.96/ounce.