Financial breakfast on August 26: Gold prices remain stable, focusing on US economic data, the United States will include copper and potash in the list of key minerals, and Trump will impose tariffs on medicine

On Tuesday (August 26, Beijing time), spot gold traded around $3,355/ounce, gold prices held steady on Monday, and market focus turned to upcoming U.S. PCE data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path, while a stronger dollar restrained gains; U.S. crude oil traded around $64.70/barrel, and oil prices rose about 2% on Monday, continuing last week's rally as traders expected more U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and possible supply disruptions from Ukraine's attack on Russian energy infrastructure.

Focus on the day

The Reserve Bank of Australia released its August monetary policy meeting notes.

stock market

U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, as investors assessed the outlook for U.S. interest rates and focused on this week's quarterly earnings from artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia, while digesting a strong rebound on Friday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record closing high.

Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell hinted at the Jackson Hole symposium that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates at its September meeting in light of recent labor market weakness, which sent stocks sharply higher.

Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma, said the market is now a bit of a Jackson Hole hangover, and investors are taking a breather.

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), will be released on Friday, while official non-farm payrolls data is expected next week. These reports are crucial, especially in the context of Powell's emphasis that a rate cut is yet to be determined. Brian Klimke, investment director at Cetera Investment Management, said the focus right now is on the labor market, which is gradually weakening and the economy is slowing, so the Fed needs to act sooner, and they are aware of that.

Nvidia rallied 1 percent ahead of the company's earnings report on Wednesday, which will be one of the most closely watched events on Wall Street this week and a key test of the red-hot artificial intelligence deal.

As a constituent of about 8% of the S & P 500, Nvidia's performance will affect the large number of Americans who rely on index funds for their retirement savings.

Michael Green, portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, said it was an extremely important event from the perspective of market participants.

Powell's speech prompted a number of large brokerages to adjust their expectations, with Barclays, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank all expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now expect an 84 per cent chance of a rate cut in September, and comments by Fed officials Williams and Logan later in the day will also be closely watched to see if they share Powell's policy views.

The S & P 500 fell 0.43 percent to 6,439.32, the Nasdaq fell 0.22 percent to 21,449.29 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.77 percent to 4,5282.47.

Nine of the S & P 500's 11 sector indices fell, led by consumer staples stocks, which fell 1.62%, followed by healthcare, which fell 1.44%.

Friday's optimism helped the blue-chip Dow index close at a record high for the first time since December 2024, and the benchmark S & P 500 also posted its strongest one-day gain since May.

On Monday, Jefferies became the latest brokerage to raise its year-end target for the S & P 500, as beverage company Keurig Dr. Pepper plunged 11.5 per cent after saying it would buy JDE Peet's for $18.40 billion in cash.

Furniture retailers RH and Wayfair each fell more than 5 percent after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that his administration would launch an investigation into furniture import tariffs.

Intel fell 1 per cent after Mr. Trump said the US government would take a stake in the chipmaker and said other deals similar to Intel's would be struck.

Jin Shi

Gold prices held steady on Monday as market focus turned to forthcoming US PCE data for clues on the Fed's policy path, while a stronger dollar curbed gains. Spot gold was flat at $3,372.67 an ounce, having hit its highest level since August 11 on Friday. US gold for December delivery closed 0.03 per cent lower at $3,417.50.

Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, said: "The market is digesting Powell's remarks on Friday as we wait for new information that may better indicate the likelihood of a rate cut in September."

Gold climbed to a near two-week high on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell signaled that he could cut interest rates at next month's meeting. Powell said risks to the job market are rising, but inflation remains a threat and no decision has been made yet. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market sees a more than 86% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at its September policy meeting.

Investors are awaiting Friday's release of US personal consumption spending data, which is expected to show core inflation climbing to 2.9 per cent, its highest level since the end of 2023, for further clues on the Fed's future path to rate cuts.

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.3% to $38.72 an ounce; platinum fell 1.6% to $1,339.40; and palladium fell 2.7% to $1,096.20.

oil market

Oil prices rose about 2 percent on Monday, extending last week's gains as traders anticipated more U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and possible supply disruptions from Ukraine's attack on Russia's energy infrastructure.

Brent crude futures rose 1.58 per cent to $68.80 and US crude rose 1.79 per cent to $64.80 as the US tries to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia to end the three-and-a-half-year war.

Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said: "There seems to be a sense that the peace talks are being delayed," and if the talks don't go well, sanctions could be imposed on Russia. "

U.S. President Donald Trump said again on Friday that he would impose sanctions on Russia if there is no progress towards a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine issue within two weeks.

He also suggested that tough tariffs could be imposed on India, which buys Russian oil. Over the weekend, US Vice President Vance said Russia had made "significant concessions" to negotiate a solution to the war.

Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure. Russian officials say a drone attack on Sunday caused a fire at the end point of a fuel export in Ust-Luga.

After Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell said on Friday that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at its September meeting, investors' risk appetite has risen.

However, both major indicators of oil futures appear to lack momentum, with Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, saying the market appears increasingly confident that Trump's tariffs will hit economic growth, limiting fuel demand.

currency market

The dollar rallied against major currencies on Monday, rebounding from a sharp decline last week following a speech by Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell that strengthened expectations for a September rate cut.

The dollar index rose 0.49 percent to 98.32, its biggest one-day percentage gain since July 30. The euro fell 0.69 percent to $1.1634, touching a four-week high of $1.174225 on Friday. Powell said on Friday that risks to the U.S. job market were rising, but inflation remained a threat. Major brokerages, including Barclays, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank, have since expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September.

Matt Weller, head of global market research at StoneX, said: "While Powell and his colleagues are undoubtedly still leaning towards a rate cut next month, if this week's core PCE price index report, next week's non-farm payrolls data and August's consumer price index (CPI) data consistently point to rising inflation and a weaker employment outlook, the combination of these data could turn the Fed into sitting on its hands." In other words, currency traders are aware that a September rate cut is not yet on DingTalk, and traders are hedging against the possibility of a divergence and the Federal Reserve keeping rates on hold for the next month, leading to a modest but broad dollar rally. "

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch tool, traders expect an 84.3% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its September meeting, down slightly from 84.7% in the previous session but well up from 61.9% a month ago. The dollar index has fallen more than 9% this year. The euro is up nearly 12% against the dollar so far this year, the biggest gain among a basket of currencies.

Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, expects the euro to rise to about $1.20-1 against the dollar over the next six to 12 months. Meanwhile, eurozone bond yields rose on Monday, reversing a decline late last week as traders reassessed expectations for the Federal Reserve and its impact on Europe. They also digested data showing a pick-up in German business confidence.

German 10-year yields rose 3.9 basis points to 2.758 per cent, close to a five-month high of 2.787 per cent hit last week. US Treasury yields also rose slightly as traders shifted positions. Two-year US Treasury yields rose 4 basis points to 3.728 per cent.

In addition to the Federal Reserve's policy path, investors are likely to continue to focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's attacks on Powell and other Federal Reserve policymakers, which have raised concerns about the Fed's independence.

Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said in an interview with CNBC that it could take months for the Trump administration to replace Powell, and the president needs to decide on a successor.

"The renewed effort to reshape the Fed poses a potential challenge to longer-dated Treasuries," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. The yield on the 30-year Treasury edged up 0.1 basis point to 4.8836 per cent. PCE data due on Friday and the August jobs report a week later could shape the Fed's policy path.

International News

The Trump administration's announcement hints that India is about to impose a 50% tariff

The Trump administration's plan to impose a 50 percent tariff on Indian products was outlined in a draft announcement released on Monday, the latest signal that the White House plans to move forward with the tariff increase. The notice issued by the US Department of Homeland Security said the increased tariffs would target Indian products "that enter the consumer market or pick up consumer products from warehouses on or after 12:01 a.m. EDT on August 27, 2025." US President Donald Trump announced earlier this month that he plans to double the tariff on goods purchased by India for Russian oil from 25 percent to 50 percent. The Indian government denounced the so-called secondary tariffs as unfair, while hoping for a breakthrough in peace talks that would remove the need for the tariffs.

Trump says no details of security guarantees for Ukraine have been discussed

US President Donald Trump said on the 25th that the relevant details of how the United States will participate in the security guarantee of Ukraine have not been discussed, but the United States will help Europe play a major role in the form of "back-up". Trump made the above remarks in an interview with the media at the White House on the same day. He said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the "easiest" of the many conflicts he intends to resolve. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine involves some "serious personality conflicts", but the US side "will let this end".

Trump: Russian and Ukrainian presidents should meet or there could be "serious consequences"

On August 25 local time, US President Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky should meet. He said that if Putin and Zelensky do not meet, there could be "serious consequences"; the United States may intervene in a week or two. Trump said "I don't know if they will meet".

The Trump administration plans to block the development of another offshore wind farm

The Trump administration is fighting to block offshore wind projects planned for development near Maryland, the latest escalation in the White House's assault on clean energy. The Interior Department intends to send back a license granted to the $6 billion Maryland offshore wind project for reconsideration and revocation, according to a court filing last Friday. The project, located about 10 nautical miles off the coast of Ocean City, Maryland, will install up to 114 wind turbines, has been approved by the Biden administration in 2024 and is scheduled to begin construction next year.

The US business community is concerned that Trump wants to pursue more Intel-like transactions

President Donald Trump said on Monday he wanted to increase investment in US companies, but it was unclear whether the US business community would support it. The White House on Friday announced the purchase of a nearly 10 per cent stake in Intel, a deal that converts government grants into equity. Analysts said the move was a departure from decades of thinking about the US economy. In the past, the government took stakes in private companies only in rare emergencies such as the 2008 global financial crisis and subsequent bailouts of US car companies.

The US Department of the Interior has added copper and potash to its list of critical minerals

The United States has added minerals such as copper and potash to its 2025 Critical Minerals List because they are critical to national security and the economy. The U.S. Geological Survey has posted the draft list to the Federal Register for a 30-day public comment period. According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, inclusion on the list could make projects more eligible for federal funding support or apply the simplified permitting process. It could also enhance its competitiveness due to fees imposed on imports.

Trump administration considers sanctions against European Union or member state officials over Digital Services Act

The Trump administration is considering imposing sanctions on officials from the European Union or member states responsible for enforcing the Digital Services Act, according to two unnamed people familiar with the matter. It is not clear which officials from the European Union or European Union member states the action will target, but US officials held internal meetings on the topic last week. Senior State Department officials have yet to make a final decision on whether to move forward with penalties, which could take the form of visa restrictions.

Trump: Drug prices will be cut by "1400% -1500%"

President of the United StatesTrump: Drug prices will be cut by "1400% -1500%", will process cost figures for U.S. drug prices. Tariffs on pharmaceuticals will soon be imposed.

Zelensky: U.S.-U.S. team will hold talks to discuss the possibility of peace talks with Russia

On August 25 local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky held a meeting with visiting Norwegian Prime Minister Steller. At a joint press conference after the meeting, Zelensky said that he would meet with Kellogg, the US special envoy for Ukraine affairs who is visiting Ukraine. The Ukrainian side will also hold talks with the US team this weekend to discuss the possibility of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Zelensky said that the Ukrainian team is in close contact with the United States and other parties. After the parties reach a basic framework for security guarantees for Ukraine, the Ukrainian side will find out through the US whether the Russian side is ready to hold a meeting. He also said that Norway has joined the plan to buy weapons from the United States, and the Ukrainian side hopes to receive at least $1 billion a month from this plan. (CCTV News)

Domestic News

The size of our country's logistics market has remained the first in the world for many consecutive years

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, our country's modern logistics development has made important achievements, the logistics market scale continues to maintain the world's first, and the construction of a modern logistics system has made positive progress, providing strong support for smoothing the national economic cycle and promoting high-quality development. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, our country's total social logistics has maintained a steady and rising development trend. In 2025, the total logistics scale of the whole society is expected to reach 380 trillion yuan, an increase of about 80 trillion yuan in 5 years. The total income of our country's logistics industry continues to expand, with an increase of about 4 trillion yuan in 5 years. It is expected to exceed 14 trillion yuan in 2025, and the market size is expected to rank first in the world for 10 consecutive years.

During the month, 924 stocks were rated "buy" by brokerages

Recently, with the intensive disclosure of the performance of class A share listed companies in the first half of the year, securities firms have actively conducted research and given the latest rating results to listed companies, dedicated to providing valuable reference for investors. Data show that within the month, a total of 924 stocks received "buy" ratings from brokerages, of which Kweichow Moutai received "buy" ratings from 31 brokerages, ranking first; followed by Huali Group, which received "buy" ratings from 29 brokerages; Wanhua Chemical and Angel Yeast received "buy" ratings from 24 and 23 brokerages respectively; Zhongchong shares and Changshu Bank received "buy" ratings from 22 brokerages, and Yanjin Shop, Stone Technology, and Gigabit received "buy" ratings from 20 brokerages.