Risk aversion and interest rate cut expectations resonate, and gold prices hit a new record high

In the Asian session on Wednesday, gold (XAU/USD) continued its strong performance, briefly breaking through the key position of $4,520/oz, setting a new all-time high, and then correcting. According to AnzoForex PlatformAnalysis shows that the current upward momentum of gold prices is mainly due to the rise in risk aversion and the market's continued expectation of easing policies.

First, the frequent occurrence of global geopolitical risk events has increased the demand for safe havens in the market. Uncertainty in the international situation, especially the risks related to energy transportation, has driven capital inflows into safe-haven assets such as gold.

In such an environment, gold, as a classic safe-haven asset, has once again become the focus of investor allocation.

Second, the outlook for monetary policy is positive for gold prices, with inflation pressures easing and employment data showing a cooling, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve may still adjust its policy direction in the future.

Lower interest rate expectations mean a lower opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, which provides medium-term support for gold.

Market surveys show that a number of U.S. policymakers have publicly expressed support for a lower interest rate environment, further strengthening easing expectations.

However, the rise in gold prices has not been without resistance. US GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, indicating that the economy remains resilient. Strong economic data is usually positive for the dollar, which may weigh on gold prices from a currency perspective.

At the same time, the decline in the US consumer confidence index revealed that the economic outlook is not all bright, and market views are divided.

As the holiday season approaches, overall market trading is relatively light, and investors tend to wait for new macro data to provide direction.

In the short term, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has become a key indicator for observing the job market, and changes in its data may affect short-term fluctuations in gold prices.

The daily structure shows that the gold bulls trend is obvious. The price is firmly above the 100-day moving average, and the medium-term trend is good; the Bollinger Bands maintain an upward opening, indicating that the trend continues.

However, on the 14th, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 70, entering the overbought area, suggesting that there may be a technical consolidation or high volatility in the short term. If the price of gold can effectively stabilize the psychological level of $4,500, the above target can look at the integer level of $4,550 or even $4,600.

On the contrary, in the event of a pullback, the $4,450 and $4,400 areas would constitute key support.

Editor's opinion: Overall, gold is currently in the "strong trend, multi-factor resonance" stage. Anzo foreign exchange believes that geopolitical risks provide safe-haven support for gold prices, while loose expectations give medium-term upward momentum.

Although technical indicators suggest short-term overheating, the overall price of gold remains vulnerable to growth until the macro environment changes significantly.