The golden direction faces a crucial trial! Will Powell "turn the table again"?

Over the past week, the data revealed that...The US economy continues to maintain strong momentumRetail sales data and manufacturing data rose unexpectedly, while residential construction continued to gain strengthThe 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 15-year high this week。

Next week's economic data will be relatively light.What's more important is the PMI reports released by major economiesButtrueThe main event will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual MeetingWith US yields on the verge of breaking through, signals from Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell on the Fed's future policy path will be crucial

Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time):

Central Bank News: Focus gathers at Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting! Will Powell "flip the table again"?

On the Federal Reserve side:

Tuesday

19:30, 2024 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin delivered a speech.

Wednesday

02:30, 2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee delivered a speech on youth employment.

At 03:30, the 2023 FOMC voting committee, Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee, and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman participated in a fireside chat.

Friday

At 0:00, the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harker were interviewed by CNBC.

21:00, 2023 FOMC voting committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harker was interviewed by Bloomberg TV.

21:40, 2023 FOMC voting committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harker was interviewed by Yahoo Finance Live.

At 22:05, Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell addressed the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.

For next week, the focus will be on the Jackson Hole central bank's annual meeting.

As we move into the second half of 2023,The most pressing question on everyone's mind is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again before the end of the yearThe Fed's July meeting notes showed policymakers still see significant risks to inflation, which could lead to further rate hikes in the futureAdding to the fire, recent US retail sales data exceeded expectations, further supporting the case for the Fed to continue raising interest rates

Every year in August, Federal Reserve officials hold a symposium at their summer resort in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting of Global Central Banks, where they will confer on monetary policy and economic trends. Although this is primarily an academic event, for many years,Federal Reserve leaders have been using it to signal a major strategic shift。

Last year, Powell announced on this occasion that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates urgently to combat rampant inflation. At the time, he tried to send the message that the tightening cycle was just begining. followitsAfter that, a strong rebound in U.S. Treasury yields drove the dollar stronger and hit U.S. stocks hard.The S & P 500 index fell from 4,200 to 3,500 in two months.

Although the situation today is very different from last year: inflation has moderated, although this improvement is largely due to lower energy prices.Core inflation remains hotIn addition,With the labor market still extremely tight, there are concerns that inflation may not return to the 2% target anytime soon.

The recent flurry of economic data has heightened such concerns. The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecasting model now predicts that consumer resilience and a booming housing market,U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 5.8% in the third quarter.。

All of this suggests that, while significant progress has been made on inflationIt may be too early for the Fed chairperson to celebrate victory and declare "mission accomplished"Powell is most likely to continue to emphasize "data reliance", leaving the door open to maintaining current interest rates and another rate hike if "things get worse."

That's basically what he said at the Fed's July meeting three weeks ago. However, given the stronger-than-expected data flow since then,He is likely to strike a slightly tougher tone this time, placing more emphasis on the prospect of keeping rates unchanged for longer or raising them again.

With US Treasury yields near their highest levels this cycle, the Jackson Hole meeting of global central banks will be an important guide for the direction of US Treasury bonds.

For gold,fxtmAnalysts believe that if Powell shows a firmly hawkish tone in his speech, which prompts people to place bets that US interest rates will remain higher for a longer period of time, the price of gold could fall towards $1,870.However, if Powell conveys a more cautious and dovish stance, it could push gold back above its 200-day moving average and touch $1,920.

itsOther central bank's important agenda:

Thursday at 09:00, the Bank of Korea announced its interest rate decision.

On Thursday at 15:20, the Bank of Indonesia announced its interest rate decision.

Thursday 19:00, TurkeyitsThe central bank announces interest rate decisions.

On Saturday at 3:00 PM, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde addressed the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in Jackson Hole.

For the European Central Bank, President Christine Lagarde's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is equally important.itsWhether it will continue to maintain a hawkish attitude will be a key focus for the market to keep an eye on.

At present, most economists believe that...The European Central Bank will suspend interest rate hikes in SeptemberBut further interest rate hikes are still possible before the end of the year amid rising inflation.

Economists at ING Bank said that the euro anditsHis procyclical currency seems to have a way of weathering the economic slowdown without much impact, but it also means that a sharp rebound in the euro against the dollar will be delayed.The EUR/USD is currently likely to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, with a slightly bearish bias, and may fall back to the 1.0850 level.

Important data: The Federal Reserve's wish may be dashed! Sterling faces a "life and death situation"?

Tuesday:

22:00, the total number of existing home sales in the United States in July was annualized, and the Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index in August in the United States.

Wednesday:

At 15:15, the preliminary value of the French manufacturing PMI in August.

At 15:30, the preliminary value of the German manufacturing PMI in August.

16:00, the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI in the euro area in August.

16:30, the UK's August manufacturing and service PMI;

21:45, the initial value of the Markit manufacturing and service PMI in the United States in August.

22:00, the total number of new home sales in the United States in July was annualized.

22:30, EIA crude oil inventories and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories in the United States for the week ending August 18.

Thursday:

20:30, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week from the United States to August 19, and the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in July;

Friday

At 14:00, Germany's second-quarter GDP was not adjusted at a quarterly annual rate.

22:00, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in August, and the expected one-year inflation rate in August.

Next week, the US data will be relatively light, with several real estate data and PMI data worthy of attention.With home prices hitting record highs in much of the U.S., the Federal Reserve's long-anticipated rent cooling could prove elusive。

In the eurozone, the spotlight will be on Wednesday's preliminary August PMI reading.Societe Generale InvestmentEconomists predict that...The decline in manufacturing continued to deepen and began to affect the much larger services sector, putting the brakes on the eurozone economy.

For months, the euro has shrugged off bad economic news and turned its attention to the European Central Bank's interest rate hikes, which has given the euro a boost.The European Central Bank may have to ignore weaker growth prospects for a long time。If the data continues to slow, the European Central Bank could "pause" the tightening cycle in September, which could hit the euro.

The situation in the UK may be slightly better,itsThe PMI survey will also be released on Wednesday. The latest services PMI shows,The UK economy is "flat at best in the coming months"But due to the UK's inflation problemitsOther countries are more serious, and the market still expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points.

It's a double-edged sword.。These interest rate bets have helped boost the pound this year, but the higher the interest rate, the greater the risk of a recession, which in turn hits the pound。

Finally, Japan's inflation data is also worth watching.itsThe latest Tokyo inflation data to be released on Friday could influence the Bank of Japan's subsequent decision-making。